Trigger database

Setting a trigger is one of the essential components of establishing anticipatory humanitarian action. In the humanitarian and development context, triggers help provide decision-makers the necessary information to know when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted. In line with the impact-based forecasting approach, the trigger model is developed based on a detailed risk analysis of natural hazards, including impact assessments of past disaster events, and analysis of exposure and vulnerability data. 

This database of triggers serves as a platform for practitioners to see what triggers are being formulated and to facilitate further exchange about the trigger development process.  

With the dropdown menus and search options below, you can find trigger information according to hazard, country, sector, lead time, or vulnerability and exposure indicators. The resulting list will provide you with trigger information, a description of the trigger activation process, forecast sources, stop mechanism, and additional details of activation history, where available. The trigger information can serve as a foundation for further research and discussion when developing EAPs and anticipatory action in new contexts. 

Growing this database and keeping it up to date is a community effort. If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please download and fill out the following form and send it to Irene Amuron and the Anticipation Hub.

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Results

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Trigger(s)

Cyclone/ Thyphoon EAP Philippines

  • Hazard(s)

    Cyclone/ Typhoon

  • Countries

    Philippines

  • Lead time

    Short term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure, Livelihoods

  • Sector(s)

    Shelter & infrastructure, Livelihoods, Cash, Food security

  • Description

    The typhoon EAP trigger is based on a model that forecast the number of houses to be damaged by the winds. The EAP will activate when the model forecasts with a 3-day lead time more than 10% of houses being totally damaged in at least 3 municipalities. 

  • Lead Time:

    3 days

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    Philippines Athmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services; Administration (PAGASA) - not automatic at this point

    International:

    University College of London

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty, % of households occupying rent-free lots

    Geographic location:

    Coastal zones

    Shelter & infrastructure:

    Shelter type, construction, materials used

    Livelihoods:

    Agriculture

  • Probability

    N/A

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    Impact at 72h is not confirming the information shared in the Alert, because the typhoon has lost energy or due to a change of track, action stopped; once trigger confirmed, no stop, only livestock evacuation adjusted.

Trigger(s)

Cyclone/ Typhoon EAP Bangladesh

  • Hazard(s)

    Cyclone/ Typhoon

  • Countries

    Bangladesh

  • Lead time

    Short term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure, Protection

  • Sector(s)

    Health, Livelihoods, Food security

  • Description

    The cyclone EAP is triggered when the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) forecasts a cyclone making landfall in Bangladesh with wind speeds greater than 125 km/h with a lead time of 30 hours. EAP priority is given to all areas that have greater than 25% of houses at risk.

  • Lead Time:

    30 hours

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) / India Metrological Department (IMD) for lead times earlier than 30 hours

    International:

    GloFAS

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty,  dependents; children <5, elderly >60

    Geographic locattion:

    Proximity to Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) volunteers, proximity to cyclone shelter, geographical exposure

    Shelter & infrastructure:

    House construction

  • Probability

    N/A

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    None due to short lead time.

  • EAP activation history

    • Trigger: 18 May 2020
    • EA completed: 22 May 2020 

Do you have a question?

If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please reach out to me.

Irene Amuron

Technical Advisor on Forecast-based Financing

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Raise your Question

 

Featured image by NASA/ Joshua Stevens