Trigger database

Setting a trigger is one of the essential components of establishing anticipatory humanitarian action. In the humanitarian and development context, triggers help provide decision-makers the necessary information to know when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted. In line with the impact-based forecasting approach, the trigger model is developed based on a detailed risk analysis of natural hazards, including impact assessments of past disaster events, and analysis of exposure and vulnerability data. 

This database of triggers serves as a platform for practitioners to see what triggers are being formulated and to facilitate further exchange about the trigger development process.  

With the dropdown menus and search options below, you can find trigger information according to hazard, country, sector, lead time, or vulnerability and exposure indicators. The resulting list will provide you with trigger information, a description of the trigger activation process, forecast sources, stop mechanism, and additional details of activation history, where available. The trigger information can serve as a foundation for further research and discussion when developing EAPs and anticipatory action in new contexts. 

Growing this database and keeping it up to date is a community effort. If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please download and fill out the following form and send it to Irene Amuron and the Anticipation Hub.

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Results

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Trigger(s)

Flood EAP Uganda

  • Hazard(s)

    Flood

  • Countries

    Uganda

  • Lead time

    Medium term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure, Institutional capacities

  • Sector(s)

    Early warning, Shelter & infrastructure, WASH, Health, Cash

  • Description

    The flood EAP is activated when GloFAS forecast a 5 year return period flood in high priority flood-prone districts and 10 year return period flood in lower priority flood-prone districts with a probability of at least 70% and which is anticipated to affect more than 1,000 households. The EAP is triggered with a 5-day lead time.

  • Lead Time:

    5 days

  • Forecast Source

    International/National:

    GloFAS; triangulated with Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA)

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty, refugees

    Geographic location:

    Flood prone areas in north, east, central regions

    Shelter & infrastructure:

    Construction, materials used

    Institutional capacities

  • Probability

    70%

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    Forecast reviewed on fourth day after activation of the EAP, if <30% probability of flood, stop enacted.

Trigger(s)

Flood EAP Zambia

  • Hazard(s)

    Flood

  • Countries

    Zambia

  • Lead time

    Short term, Medium term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Shelter & infrastructure, Access to services & infrastructure

  • Sector(s)

    Early warning, Shelter & infrastructure, WASH, Health, Livelihoods, Food security

  • Description

    The flood EAP is triggered when the daily issued forecast reports a water discharge that exceeds the threshold 10 year return period for 32 identified stations. The EAP is complemented by an automated early warning system (the IBF System) that will monitor the forecasts, generate the intervention map, and send an alert message when the trigger is reached.

  • Lead Time:

    7 days & 3 days

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA)

    International:

    GloFAS 

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty, literacy, assets ownership

    Shelter & infrastructure:

    Construction

    Access to markets & assets
     

  • Probability

    N/A

  • Return Period

    10 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    Activities on hold when water levels start receding by the 3rd day; total stop mechanism when reduciotn of 40% in river flow observed.

Do you have a question?

If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please reach out to me.

Irene Amuron

Technical Advisor on Forecast-based Financing

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Raise your Question

 

Featured image by NASA/ Joshua Stevens