Anticipatory action in urban settings

In an increasingly urban world, humanitarian disasters are occurring ever more frequently in cities. Innovative solutions are needed to alleviate people’s suffering and save lives – and anticipatory action can play a vital role.

Yet despite 55 per cent of the world’s population living in urban areas, most anticipatory action initiatives to date have targeted rural areas. With urban populations expected to increase to 68 per cent by 2050, there is likely to be a rising demand for anticipatory action initiatives tailored to urban contexts.

Applying anticipatory approaches in urban areas presents specific challenges. For example, identifying the most vulnerable people can be an intricate task, and data is often needed at a higher resolution than for rural areas.

Hazards also play out differently in urban areas. While many types of hazards are prevalent and can be anticipated, heat displays special qualities in urban centres, where the concrete used in roads and houses takes in the heat, and the natural cooling effect of vegetation is often lacking.

The impacts of hazards can also be complex in urban areas. Rich and poor neighbourhoods may only be separated by just a road or a wall, but their ability to cope with a hazard can vary greatly. During a flood, for example, a few meters of elevation or a functioning sewage system can be the difference between those who are severely affected and those who keep themselves and their possessions dry.

Producing and analysing the data required for anticipatory action in urban contexts is a challenge, but it can be achieved. A recent case study from Butuan City, Philippines, highlights the potential and the challenges of undertaking detailed analysis in urban contexts.

Further information

A new case study on relocating businesses as an urban early action in the Philippines

While most early actions implemented to date have been in rural environments, there are growing efforts to expand anticipatory action to urban settings. A new case study from the Philippine Red …

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Unveiling low-cost anticipatory actions for cities

The recently launched Urban Action Kit offers possible solutions to the humanitarian community wishing to start or strengthen their urban engagement. The Kit contains a light introduction to urban …

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Beneficiary Data Collection

The Story of Heatwave Anticipatory Action in Dhaka Bangladesh

By applying Anticipatory Action, heatwaves could be anticipated, and early actions could be implemented before the occurrence of heatwaves to reduce their impact, human suffering, and losses. Read …

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This image shows cash distribution at Kurigram 2020 flood early action.

The practitioners guide to cash early action: experiences from Bangladesh

This blog provides guidance to practitioners on cash early action based on experiences in Bangladesh.

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Anticipation in Urban Areas - Global Dialogue Platform Session

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WG 4: Big city life: Developments in the urban context

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Urban Forecast-based Financing guidance note

The world is urbanizing at an unprecedented rate. Today already more than half of the world’s population lives in cities. Natural hazards such as droughts, floods and heatwaves, coupled with poor …

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Thomas Smarczyk

Coordinator, urban pilot projects

German Red Cross

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Eddie Jjemba

Urban resilience advisor

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Top photo: Aleppo, Syria. Life in the rubble; numerous neighbourhoods are still badly damaged and cut off from electricity. Despite this, many people return to their damaged homes. © Oana Bara, German Red Cross