Trigger database

Setting a trigger is one of the essential components of establishing anticipatory humanitarian action. In the humanitarian and development context, triggers help provide decision-makers the necessary information to know when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted. In line with the impact-based forecasting approach, the trigger model is developed based on a detailed risk analysis of natural hazards, including impact assessments of past disaster events, and analysis of exposure and vulnerability data. 

This database of triggers serves as a platform for practitioners to see what triggers are being formulated and to facilitate further exchange about the trigger development process.  

With the dropdown menus and search options below, you can find trigger information according to hazard, country, sector, lead time, or vulnerability and exposure indicators. The resulting list will provide you with trigger information, a description of the trigger activation process, forecast sources, stop mechanism, and additional details of activation history, where available. The trigger information can serve as a foundation for further research and discussion when developing EAPs and anticipatory action in new contexts. 

Growing this database and keeping it up to date is a community effort. If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please download and fill out the following form and send it to Irene Amuron and the Anticipation Hub.

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Results

21
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Trigger(s)

Heatwave EAP Vietnam

  • Hazard(s)

    Heatwave

  • Countries

    Vietnam

  • Lead time

    Medium term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Livelihoods

  • Sector(s)

    Early warning, Health

  • Description

    The heatwave EAP is activated when the Institute of Meteorology & Hydrology and Climate change (IMHEN) forecasts a heat index exceeding percentile-based thresholds for at least 2 consecutive days (99th percentile-based threshold in Danang, 97th percentile-based threshold in Hanoi and Hai Phong). The EAP is triggered with a 6-day lead time.

  • Lead Time:

    6 days

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    Vietnam Institute of Meteorology & Hydrology and Climate change (IMHEN)

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty, slum dwellers, children <5, elderly

    Livelihoods: 

    Vulnerability of outdoor workers
     

  • Probability

    Varies per city

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    Stop mechanism set up in each city on day 4, 3 days prior to heatwave. Stop implemented if trigger no longer reaches impact level.

Trigger(s)

Snowfall & Extreme Cold EAP Peru

  • Hazard(s)

    Snowfall / Extreme Cold

  • Countries

    Peru

  • Lead time

    Short term, Medium term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Health status, Livestock

  • Sector(s)

    Shelter & infrastructure, Health, Livelihoods, Food security

  • Description

    The snowfall and extreme cold EAP is triggered once forecasts combined with risk data indicate a certain level of impact will be exceeded. The forecasting and activation of snowfall and cold waves are done separately. The snowfall trigger is based on a deterministic forecast issued by Peru’s national hydro-meteorological agency, SENAMHI, forecasting a level 4 snowfall warning which corresponds to a 60-80% probability of a high impact snowfall event with a 5-day lead time. The cold wave trigger is based on the forecast model indicating an area with four consecutive days of minimum temperatures exceeding the 5th percentile, meaning extremely low temperatures that correspond to the annual absolute extreme. The cold wave trigger has a 4-day lead time.

  • Lead Time:

    Snowfall trigger; 5 days; Extreme Cold trigger: 4 days

  • Forecast Source

    Snowfall trigger (5 days):

    National: snow-intensity model issued by SENAMHI (National Hydro-Met Department)

    Extreme Cold trigger (4 days):

    National: temperature forecast issued by SENAMHI (National Hydro-Met Department)

     

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty, children <5, elderly

    Geographic location:

    Altitude greater than 3600 m sea level

    Health status: 

    Prevalence of acute respitory infections

    Livestock: 

    Location of alpacas, health of alpacas

  • Probability

    Snowfall trigger: 60% – 80% probability of high impact snowfall; Extreme Cold trigger: N/A

  • Return Period

    10 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    If forecasts issued in 48 hours following the activation do not confirm the first trigger forecast.

Do you have a question?

If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please reach out to me.

Irene Amuron

Technical Advisor on Forecast-based Financing

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Raise your Question

 

Featured image by NASA/ Joshua Stevens