Trigger database

Setting a trigger is one of the essential components of establishing anticipatory humanitarian action. In the humanitarian and development context, triggers help provide decision-makers the necessary information to know when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted. In line with the impact-based forecasting approach, the trigger model is developed based on a detailed risk analysis of natural hazards, including impact assessments of past disaster events, and analysis of exposure and vulnerability data. 

This database of triggers serves as a platform for practitioners to see what triggers are being formulated and to facilitate further exchange about the trigger development process.  

With the dropdown menus and search options below, you can find trigger information according to hazard, country, sector, lead time, or vulnerability and exposure indicators. The resulting list will provide you with trigger information, a description of the trigger activation process, forecast sources, stop mechanism, and additional details of activation history, where available. The trigger information can serve as a foundation for further research and discussion when developing EAPs and anticipatory action in new contexts. 

Growing this database and keeping it up to date is a community effort. If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please download and fill out the following form and send it to Irene Amuron and the Anticipation Hub.

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Results

21
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Trigger(s)

Flood EAP Niger

  • Hazard(s)

    Flood

  • Countries

    Niger

  • Lead time

    Short term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure, Livelihoods, Food security & nutrition status

  • Sector(s)

    Shelter & infrastructure, WASH, Health

  • Description

    The flood EAP is triggered based on a flood prediction model that provides three types of color-coded alerts produced by the Niger Basin Authority. Early actions are triggered with a 3-day lead time when the orange level is met, corresponding to a 5 year return period. A table is available to identify when the 5 year return period threshold is reached for each of the 7 measuring stations. There is a 20% probability of the flood trigger being activated in a given year.

  • Lead Time:

    4 days

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    Niger Basin Authority (NBA) through the SATH-ORIO project model

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic

    Food security & nutrition status 

    Geographic location 

    Livelihoods:

    Land use practices, agricultural practices

    Shelter & infrastructure: 

    Habitat, lack of drainage system, lack of runoff in urban areas

  • Probability

    20% in given year

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    If weekly alert and the daily announcement indicate forecast will not occur; national crisis cell as sole authority.

  • EAP activation history

    • Trigger: late July 2020
Trigger(s)

Flood EAP Philippines

  • Hazard(s)

    Flood

  • Countries

    Philippines

  • Lead time

    Short term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure, Livelihoods, Access to services & infrastructure

  • Sector(s)

    Livelihoods, Cash, Food security

  • Description

    The flood EAP trigger is met if the GloFAS forecast predicts with more than 70% probability the occurrence of a 1 in 5 years flood in one of the targeted river basins. Then a flood model is used to determine the area of action by overlapping the corresponding flood extent in the concerned river basin and the rice crop map. The selection of the municipalities is based on the criteria that more than 50% of crops possibly are affected, or between 30-50%. The EAP is triggered with a 3-day lead time. 

  • Lead Time:

    2-3 days

  • Forecast Source

    International:

    GIoFAS

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic: 

    Poverty in rural areas

    Geographic location: 

    Exposure along river basins, cities along water ways

    Livelihoods: 

    Agriculture, fisheries

    Shelter & infrastructure: 

    Urban centers

    Access to services & infrastructure:

    Recipients of 4P assistance

  • Probability

    70%

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    No stop mechanism; potential to re-assess and adjust actions on second day of activation.

Do you have a question?

If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please reach out to me.

Irene Amuron

Technical Advisor on Forecast-based Financing

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Raise your Question

 

Featured image by NASA/ Joshua Stevens