Trigger database

Setting a trigger is one of the essential components of establishing anticipatory humanitarian action. In the humanitarian and development context, triggers help provide decision-makers the necessary information to know when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted. In line with the impact-based forecasting approach, the trigger model is developed based on a detailed risk analysis of natural hazards, including impact assessments of past disaster events, and analysis of exposure and vulnerability data. 

This database of triggers serves as a platform for practitioners to see what triggers are being formulated and to facilitate further exchange about the trigger development process.  

With the dropdown menus and search options below, you can find trigger information according to hazard, country, sector, lead time, or vulnerability and exposure indicators. The resulting list will provide you with trigger information, a description of the trigger activation process, forecast sources, stop mechanism, and additional details of activation history, where available. The trigger information can serve as a foundation for further research and discussion when developing EAPs and anticipatory action in new contexts. 

Growing this database and keeping it up to date is a community effort. If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please download and fill out the following form and send it to Irene Amuron and the Anticipation Hub.

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Results

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Trigger(s)

Flood EAP Mali

  • Hazard(s)

    Flood

  • Countries

    Mali

  • Lead time

    Short term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure, Food security & nutrition status

  • Sector(s)

    Shelter & infrastructure, WASH, Health

  • Description

    The flood EAP is triggered based on the monitored river levels at 26 measuring stations across the country. The trigger is activated with a 4-day lead time once the downstream water level exceeds the 5-year return period. The trigger is based on monitoring the water levels and considers the time for the flooding to spread, with the calculations taking into account the relationship between maximum daily water levels between upstream and downstream during a specific time frame of August-September. A table is available to identify when the 5 year return period threshold is reached for each of the measuring stations.

  • Lead Time:

    4 days

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    National Directorate of Hydraulics (DNH) & Mali Weather Agency 

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty

    Geographic: 

    Location in lowlands, flood zones, hillsides, choice of cultivable lands

    Food security & nutrition status

    Shelter & infrastructure:

    Construction, materials used

  • Probability

    20% in given year

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    If weekly alert and the daily announcement indicate forecast will not occur; national crisis comittee takes sole decision to activate stop mechanism.

Trigger(s)

Flood EAP Mozambique

  • Hazard(s)

    Flood

  • Countries

    Mozambique

  • Lead time

    Short term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure

  • Sector(s)

    Early warning, WASH, Health

  • Description

    The flood EAP is triggered based on the forecast of water levels measured at the upstream gauge station associated with a 5-year return period discharge as measured with a 3-day lead time. The probability of trigger activation varies between each basin but there is a predicted general likelihood of having at least one moderate flood per year and at least one extreme flood per fiver year period. A table is available to identify when the 5 year return period threshold is reached for each of the measuring stations.

  • Lead Time:

    3 days

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) & National Directorate of Water Resources Management (DNGRH)

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty

    Geographic location: 

    Exposure along rivers, floodplains, coast

    Shelter & infrastructure 

  • Probability

    Varies between basins; general likelihood of having at least 1 moderate flood every year and at least 1 extreme flood every 5 years

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    If the water level does not reach the expected level or the river changes its course.

  • EAP activation history

    • Trigger: 01 December 2020

Do you have a question?

If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please reach out to me.

Irene Amuron

Technical Advisor on Forecast-based Financing

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Featured image by NASA/ Joshua Stevens