Anticipatory Action in Conflict Practitioners' Group

Adapting to climate change is pivotal for people whose vulnerability has been increased by armed conflict. People affected by conflict are highly susceptible to suffer disproportionately from climate and weather-related hazards (ICRC 2020). To address this, disaster risk reduction in these complex contexts is a crucial part of the process to reduce disaster impacts. As part of these efforts, anticipatory action can help to protect people’s lives, livelihoods, and wellbeing in the face of predictable hazards.

Yet, at the moment, most anticipatory action programming is happening in non-conflict situations and recently started in few countries or regions affected by conflict. For anticipatory action to flourish and to be effective to protect people affected by armed conflict, there is a need to understand the impacts of compounding risks and the complex dynamics that armed conflict generates which could jeopardize the design and implementation of anticipatory action. It is also essential to understand how conflict sensitivity can be applied to anticipatory action, in order to follow the principles of do no harm and ensure that anticipatory action does not contribute to any existing tensions in a given context.

The Anticipatory Action in Conflict Practitioners' Group brings together practitioners and researchers working on developing further the understanding of how anticipatory action could be designed and implemented effectively in situations of conflict to reach the most vulnerable population.

Building on the recently published working paper (Wagner and Jaime 2020) by the Climate Centre and GPPi, the group could distinguish two tracks for the discussions: 

  1. FbA based on forecasts of hydro-meteorological hazards in conflict situations (i.e., to act early in anticipation of climate-related hazards in situations of ongoing conflict); and 
  2. FbA based on forecasts of humanitarian consequences of conflict (i.e., food security and displacement)

This group consists of an internal Red Cross Red Crescent-focused working group and an external working group with humanitarian partners and relevant expert communities:

  • The internal group focuses on specific methodologies, tools and mechanisms that could be used by Red Cross Red Crescent partners in situations of conflict, such as early action protocols and forecast-based financing by the DREF. 
  • The aim of the external group is to provide a platform for mutual technical exchange and learning on different approaches and methodologies for anticipatory action in conflict situations. It could serve to align efforts, capacities and resources and as a  technical sounding board considering input from expert communities like in the area of displacement and conflict analysis.

Please get in contact with the co-leads below for up-to-date information about upcoming meetings. 

Catalogue of early warning tools for anticipating the impacts of conflict

These tools all share a common objective to inform decisions that can reduce the worst impacts of conflict.

View catalogue of tools here


    FAO and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

    Kim Kristensen

    Catalina Jaime

    Tesse de Boer

    Juliane Schillinger

    Photo by James Morgan – Cox’s Bazar 2019