Trigger database

Setting a trigger is one of the essential components of establishing anticipatory humanitarian action. In the humanitarian and development context, triggers help provide decision-makers the necessary information to know when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted. In line with the impact-based forecasting approach, the trigger model is developed based on a detailed risk analysis of natural hazards, including impact assessments of past disaster events, and analysis of exposure and vulnerability data. 

This database of triggers serves as a platform for practitioners to see what triggers are being formulated and to facilitate further exchange about the trigger development process.  

With the dropdown menus and search options below, you can find trigger information according to hazard, country, sector, lead time, or vulnerability and exposure indicators. The resulting list will provide you with trigger information, a description of the trigger activation process, forecast sources, stop mechanism, and additional details of activation history, where available. The trigger information can serve as a foundation for further research and discussion when developing EAPs and anticipatory action in new contexts. 

Growing this database and keeping it up to date is a community effort. If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please download and fill out the following form and send it to Irene Amuron and the Anticipation Hub.

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Results

21
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Trigger(s)

Coldwave EAP Peru

  • Hazard(s)

    Snowfall / Extreme Cold

  • Countries

    Peru

  • Lead time

    Short term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Health status, Livestock

  • Sector(s)

    Shelter & infrastructure, Health, Livelihoods, Food security

  • Description

    The snowfall and extreme cold EAP is triggered once forecasts combined with risk data indicate a certain level of impact will be exceeded. The forecasting and activation of snowfall and cold waves are done separately. The snowfall trigger is based on a deterministic forecast issued by Peru’s national hydro-meteorological agency, SENAMHI, forecasting a level 4 snowfall warning which corresponds to a 60-80% probability of a high impact snowfall event with a 5-day lead time. The cold wave trigger is based on the forecast model indicating an area with four consecutive days of minimum temperatures exceeding the 5th percentile, meaning extremely low temperatures that correspond to the annual absolute extreme. The cold wave trigger has a 4-day lead time.

  • Lead Time:

    4 days

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    Temperature forecast issued by SENAMHI (National Hydro-Met Department)

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty, children <5, elderly

    Geographic location:

    Altitude greater than 3600 m sea level

    Health status: 

    Prevalence of acute respitory infections

    Livestock: 

    Location of alpacas, health of alpacas

  • Probability

    N/A

  • Return Period

    10 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    If forecasts issued in 48 hours following the activation do not confirm the first trigger forecast.

Trigger(s)

Cyclone EAP Mozambique

  • Hazard(s)

    Cyclone/ Typhoon

  • Countries

    Mozambique

  • Lead time

    Short term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure

  • Sector(s)

    Early warning, Shelter & infrastructure, WASH, Health

  • Description

    The cyclone EAP is triggered based on forecast information distributed 72 hours before the event indicating a category 3 cyclone with a speed of 120 km/h or more making landfall. The trigger of early actions will depend on the released forecast and an official announcement made by the Technical Committee for Disaster Management (CTGC) to activate actions.

  • Lead Time:

    3 days

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    National Meteorological Institute (INAM) 

    International:

    Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC La Reunion)

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Families headed by orphans, elderly, people with disabilities

    Geographic location:

    Expsoure in coastal zones with high density populations

    Shelter & infrastructure:

    House construction

  • Probability

    N/A

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    Potential to reroute actions to alternate communities if cyclone path shifts. If cyclone changes track dramatically and targeted communities unlikely to suffer impacts, actions are stopped. 

Do you have a question?

If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please reach out to me.

Irene Amuron

Technical Advisor on Forecast-based Financing

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Featured image by NASA/ Joshua Stevens