Trigger database

Setting a trigger is one of the essential components of establishing anticipatory humanitarian action. In the humanitarian and development context, triggers help provide decision-makers the necessary information to know when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted. In line with the impact-based forecasting approach, the trigger model is developed based on a detailed risk analysis of natural hazards, including impact assessments of past disaster events, and analysis of exposure and vulnerability data. 

This database of triggers serves as a platform for practitioners to see what triggers are being formulated and to facilitate further exchange about the trigger development process.  

With the dropdown menus and search options below, you can find trigger information according to hazard, country, sector, lead time, or vulnerability and exposure indicators. The resulting list will provide you with trigger information, a description of the trigger activation process, forecast sources, stop mechanism, and additional details of activation history, where available. The trigger information can serve as a foundation for further research and discussion when developing EAPs and anticipatory action in new contexts. 

Growing this database and keeping it up to date is a community effort. If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please download and fill out the following form and send it to Irene Amuron and the Anticipation Hub.

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Results

21
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Trigger(s)

Drought EAP Madagascar

  • Hazard(s)

    Drought

  • Countries

    Madagascar

  • Lead time

    Long term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Livelihoods, Food security & nutrition status

  • Sector(s)

    Livelihoods, Cash, Food security

  • Description

    The drought EAP trigger is based on spatial model called GeoWRSI and a monitoring tool based on both Vulnerability (HEA) and drought index (WRSI) to forecast, detect, and localise drought in specific areas. Upland rice is used as the reference crop to calculate the WRSI index for targeted regions in Madagascar, forecasts are estimated to be reliable at the end of the seeding phase in December or at the latest in January because the success or the failure of the seeding linked to a possible yield loss, already allows to estimate how the harvest and then the food security situation can be at the end of the season. More information on the trigger model threshold rationale here.

  • Lead Time:

    3-6 months

  • Forecast Source

    GeoWRSI is a geospatial model for estimating the climatic impact of water stress on a given crop. In other words, it is a free and autonomous software to calculate the water requirement satisfaction index water (WRSI) of a crop. It is implemented by the US Geological Survey (USGS) for the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) activity.

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty, single-headed households, children <5, elderly, pregnant & lactating women, housing

    Food Security and Nutrition Status:

    Food Consumption Score

    Livelihoods:

    Agriculture (Land use practices, agricultural practices, dependency on agricultural labour income); Coping Strategy Index

  • Probability

    N/A

  • Return Period

    10 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    Secondary trigger involving trigger verification mission with risk experts on the ground.

  • EAP activation history

    Trigger:

    Dekads 1, 2, 3 January 2021 (three successive dekads in January during the critical phase of the vegetative cycle) 

    EA completed:

    December 2021

Trigger(s)

Dzud EAP Mongolia

  • Hazard(s)

    Dzud

  • Countries

    Mongolia

  • Lead time

    Long term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Livestock

  • Sector(s)

    Livelihoods, Cash, Food security

  • Description

    The dzud EAP trigger is based on the Dzud Risk Map (DRM) released annually in November. If the DRM indicates that 20% of 3 or more provinces are at very high risk from the dzud (red) the EAP will be activated.

  • Lead Time:

    3 months

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring (NAMEM) in collaboration with University of Nagoya, Japan 

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty, single-headed households, children <5, elderly, pregnant & lactacting women 

    Geographic location: 

    Location of herders and livestock

    Livestock:

    Number of livestock, types/breeds, location

  • Probability

    N/A

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    If the dzud risk map is updated and the risk level doesn’t reach the trigger activation threshold, some early actions stopped. Difficulty to facilitate stop mechanisms on cash transfers.

  • EAP activation history

    • Trigger: 8 Jan 2020 
    • EA completed: 8 March 2020 

Do you have a question?

If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please reach out to me.

Irene Amuron

Technical Advisor on Forecast-based Financing

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Featured image by NASA/ Joshua Stevens