Trigger database

Setting a trigger is one of the essential components of establishing anticipatory humanitarian action. In the humanitarian and development context, triggers help provide decision-makers the necessary information to know when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted. In line with the impact-based forecasting approach, the trigger model is developed based on a detailed risk analysis of natural hazards, including impact assessments of past disaster events, and analysis of exposure and vulnerability data. 

This database of triggers serves as a platform for practitioners to see what triggers are being formulated and to facilitate further exchange about the trigger development process.  

With the dropdown menus and search options below, you can find trigger information according to hazard, country, sector, lead time, or vulnerability and exposure indicators. The resulting list will provide you with trigger information, a description of the trigger activation process, forecast sources, stop mechanism, and additional details of activation history, where available. The trigger information can serve as a foundation for further research and discussion when developing EAPs and anticipatory action in new contexts. 

Growing this database and keeping it up to date is a community effort. If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please download and fill out the following form and send it to Irene Amuron and the Anticipation Hub.

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Results

21
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Trigger(s)

Flood EAP Ethiopia

  • Hazard(s)

    Flood

  • Countries

    Ethiopia

  • Lead time

    Medium term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Shelter & infrastructure, Access to services & infrastructure, Food security & nutrition status

  • Sector(s)

    Early warning, Shelter & infrastructure, WASH, Health, Livelihoods, Food security

  • Description

    The flood EAP trigger is based on the level of river discharge being measured at greater or equal to a level of 10-year return periods with a 75% probability with a 7-day lead time. An automated trigger activation process will be utilized, which will monitor trigger levels based on real-time GloFAS forecasts and send alert messages if the trigger level is reached.

  • Lead Time:

    7 days

  • Forecast Source

    National:  

    National Meteorology Agency (NMA) & Basin Development Authority (BDA)

    International:

    GloFAS

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic: 

    Poverty, IDPs, dependents; children <5

    Shelter & infrastructure: 

    Construction, materials used

    Food security & nutrition status

    Access to services & infrastructure: 

    Access to roads

  • Probability

    75%

  • Return Period

    10 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    If forecasted discharge at 3 day lead time is not greater than the 10 year return period with probability of at least 85% the ERCS will activate the Stop mechanism.

Trigger(s)

Flood EAP Kenya

  • Hazard(s)

    Flood

  • Countries

    Kenya

  • Lead time

    Medium term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure, Access to services & infrastructure

  • Sector(s)

    Early warning, Shelter & infrastructure, WASH, Health, Livelihoods

  • Description

    The flood EAP trigger is based on a water discharge forecast from GloFAS corresponding to a 5 year return period with a 7-day lead time. It will be triggered when GloFAS issues a forecast where the water discharge level will be exceeded (Nzoia Basin -5.3m level/469.8 m3/s; Athi Basin - 469.236 m3/s; Tana Basin - 5.1m/1191.6 m3/s) and the probability of exceedance is at least 85%. 

  • Lead Time:

    7 days

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

    International:

    GloFAS, source = European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Unemployement, poverty

    Access to services & infrastructure:

    Access to improved sanitation, roads, schools, water sources available

    Shelter & infrastructure:

    Wall type, materials used

    Geographic location:

    Travel time to nearest city, exposure close to rivers and low lyring areas

  • Probability

    85%

  • Return Period

    5 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    Forecast reviewed on 4th day. if indicating <40% probability in following 3 days, EAP will be stopped.

Do you have a question?

If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please reach out to me.

Irene Amuron

Technical Advisor on Forecast-based Financing

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Featured image by NASA/ Joshua Stevens