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Working groups on anticipatory action and health

Many anticipatory action initiatives to date have focused on extreme climate and weather events, but there are increasing opportunities to look beyond these and act ahead of other hazards. These include disease outbreaks and epidemics, which are drivers of immense human suffering and loss, with major socio-economic impacts. The COVID-19 pandemic has also amplified the need to consider the compounding and exacerbating impacts on vulnerabilities when multiple hazards - such as epidemics and climate change - coincide.

Technological progress in scientific modelling and forecasting systems are enabling better predictions of who, how, when and where people might be affected by disease outbreaks and epidemics. These advances are providing increased opportunities to develop, implement and expand anticipatory action approaches for health, for example to anticipate cholera epidemics or dengue outbreaks.

Red Cross Red Crescent Working Group on Anticipatory Action and Health

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 

The Red Cross Red Crescent Working Group on Anticipatory Action and Health seeks to advance the work being done on anticipating and preventing negative health outcomes within the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement. It aims to:

  • strengthen, in a more systematic way, the Movement’s knowledge exchange, practice and tools on anticipating and preventing negative health and nutritional outcomes
  • foster improved collaboration within the Movement around this theme
  • build the evidence base and practice on effective anticipatory action for health and nutrition, with the ambition to develop early action protocols for specific health risks.

The working group will build on the valuable work done by many National Societies worldwide, particularly with regard to outbreak preparedness and response, while seeking to identify and capitalize on the opportunities provided by the anticipatory action mechanism to prevent adverse health outcomes and reduce human suffering.

MEMBERSHIP 

Membership is open to staff across the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement working in disaster risk reduction, health, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), anticipatory action and any related field.

OUTPUTS

Multi-agency working group

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 

The Anticipation Hub multi-agency working group on anticipatory action and health seeks to create a space to constructively and critically appraise health risk prediction models and to improve the process of operationalizing these models for anticipatory public health action. We will establish a webinar series and convene regular meetings, in order to address the following critical questions:

  • What approaches are successful to predict health outcomes with an acceptable level of confidence?
  • What health metrics are best understood by users, and most likely to translate into early action?
  • How to present health predictions in an intuitive way so that it optimises prediction interpretation and the understanding of the uncertainty and therefore increases the chances of triggering early actions?
  • How to successfully engage with the communities concerned as well as local stakeholders?
  • How to successfully monitor and evaluate health anticipation projects -both the early warning and early action components?

Each session in the webinar series will be built around a certain theme, for example, an infectious disease, a tool, or an approach, in which 1-2 presenters share their work, with time for structured discussion.  The webinar series will be established in advance, with invites and agendas of each meeting sent prior to the session. Members of the working group may attend all sessions, or choose to specifically only attend a specific webinar on a topic of interest.

MEMBERSHIP

Membership is open to humanitarian practitioners, epidemiologists, modellers, and health and anticipatory action practitioners and researchers.

You can express interest in joining the working group here

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Blog November 19, 2025

Cash & Voucher, Evidence, Food Insecurity, Gender & Inclusion, Health, Locally led

Building the evidence for anticipatory action: what we’ve learned – and what’s next

Anticipatory action has moved rapidly from concept to practice over the past decade. The expanding experience and evidence now available enable us to reflect on what has been learned, what works, …

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News September 12, 2025

Cash & Voucher, Early Action, Health, Shelter, WASH

The UN and partners deliver anticipatory actions ahead of floods in Nigeria

The UN has released 7 million US dollars to act ahead of floods in Nigeria, with partners assisting up to 350,000 people in at-risk areas before severe floods hit.

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News August 01, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

OCHA and partners anticipate another cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

OCHA and its partners are acting to anticipate a cholera outbreak in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo - the third such activation this year.

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News August 01, 2025

Cash & Voucher, Early Action, Food Insecurity, Health, WASH

OCHA and its partners act to anticipate drought in Guatemala

OCHA has released up to 4 million US dollars from its Central Emergency Response Fund to support communities in Chiquimula ahead of a forecast drought.

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News June 11, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

The Sri Lanka Red Cross Society launches the first simplified EAP to combat dengue

The Sri Lanka Red Cross Society has launched the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement’s first simplified early action protocol targeting dengue, marking a milestone for anticipatory action for public …

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News March 31, 2025

Early Action, Gender & Inclusion, Health, WASH

How anticipatory action adds value to epidemic preparedness: managing cholera outbreaks in Cameroon

The Cameroon Red Cross Society’s EAP for Cholera marks a historic milestone: it is the first EAP for an epidemic to be validated by the IFRC, and will guide anticipatory actions ahead of a forecast …

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News March 21, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

OCHA and CERF act in anticipation of a large cholera outbreak in DRC

The United Nations CERF has allocated 750,000 US dollars for anticipatory actions to contain a cholera outbreak in North Kivu province, Democratic Republic of Congo. This funding will be used to …

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Blog November 29, 2024

Early Action, Health, WASH

Learning by doing: lessons from anticipatory actions ahead of floods in Zambia

In January 2023, the Zambian Red Cross Society activated its EAP for Floods. Later that year, the Netherlands Red Cross commissioned a study to learn lessons from this activation; this provided …

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News May 13, 2024

Health

Building resilience against disasters: integrating care for non-communicable diseases into anticipatory action frameworks for Nepal's …

A new project in Nepal aims to develop innovative ways of incorporating care for non-communicable diseases within anticipatory action systems, enhancing the resilience of people living with these …

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Blog March 19, 2024

Early Action, Lessons Learnt, Trigger Development

Integrating anticipatory action into contingency plans: lessons from Somaliland

The Somali Red Crescent Society recently developed a contingency plan that integrated anticipatory action. This blog shares some of the lessons and challenges from this process.

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet November 20, 2025

Early Action, Early Warning System, Evidence, Health

Establishing anticipatory action at the national level: lessons from Sri Lanka

Anticipatory action has progressed rapidly in Sri Lanka. In 2022, the first pilot project began testing this approach for floods and landslides in Nuwara Eliya; just three years later, there are now …

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Presentation July 04, 2025

Forecast, Health

Prevision Estacional Para Centroamérica Y El Caribe Julio a Septiembre 2025

Esta presentación contiene información climática para Centroamérica y el Caribe para el periodo julio-agosto-septiembre (JAS) de 2025, con un enfoque en lo que estas perspectivas significan en …

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Presentation July 04, 2025

Forecast, Health

Seasonal Outlook: Central America and the Caribbean July to September 2025

This presentation contains climate information for Central America and the Caribbean for the July–August–September (JAS) period 2025, with a focus on what this outlook means in terms of health …

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Evaluation June 17, 2025

Health, Lessons Learnt

Cholera and the case for anticipatory action: Lessons from the Democratic Republic of the Congo

This case study examines how the approach was developed, how it worked in practice and what lessons it offers for the future. It proves that acting ahead of disease outbreaks is both possible and …

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet April 07, 2025

Health, WASH

Acción Anticipatoria en República Democrática de Congo: Anticipando Grandes Brotes de Cólera

Hoy en día, podemos predecir con una confianza cada vez mayor la aparición e impacto humanitario de una amplia gama de amenazas, incluyendo grandes brotes de enfermedades transmisibles. La …

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Report April 02, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

Protocole d’Action Précoces Choléra de la Croix-Rouge Camerounaise: Détails d’élaboration

En 2025, la Croix-Rouge camerounaise a finalisé son protocole d'action précoce (PAE) pour le choléra, le premier PAE pour une épidémie à être validé par la FICR. Ce cadre permettra à la Société …

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Report April 02, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

Cameroon Red Cross - Cholera Early Action Protocol: Development Details

In 2025, the Cameroon Red Cross Society finalized its Early Action Protocol (EAP) for Cholera, which was the first EAP for an epidemic to be validated by the IFRC. This framework will enable the …

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Report March 28, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

DREF final report: Cameroon - anticipatory action for Marburg

Following an outbreak of Marburg disease in Equatorial Guinea in 2023, the IFRC DREF supported anticipatory actions in neighbouring Cameroon to avoid the outbreak spreading. This report summarizes …

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Presentation March 06, 2025

Forecast, Health

Eastern Africa Climate Seasonal Outlook March to May 2025

This presentation contains climate information for the eastern Africa region, with a focus on what this outlook means in terms of health impacts.

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Presentation March 01, 2025

Forecast, Health

Bulletin saisonnier afrique centrale - MAM 2025

This bulletin (in French) contains a seasonal bulletin for countries in central Africa for the March–April–May (MAM) period 2025, with a focus on what this outlook means in terms of health impacts.

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EAP June 04, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

Simplified Early Action Protocol: Sri Lanka | Dengue

This framework sets out the actions the Sri Lanka Red Cross Society will take in anticipation of a dengue outbreak. It also outlines the financing available for an activation and the trigger …

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EAP May 27, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

Simplified Early Action Protocol: Fiji | Tropical Cyclone

This Simplified EAP sets out the anticipatory actions the Fiji Red Cross will take ahead of tropical cyclones. It includes details of the trigger thresholds, the actions to be taken, and the …

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EAP March 05, 2025

Early Action, Gender & Inclusion, Health, WASH

Early Action Protocol: Cameroon - Cholera (Summary)

This document sets out the anticipatory actions that the Cameroon Red Cross Society will take ahead of forecast cholera outbreaks. It also sets out the triggers for activating this framework and the …

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EAP August 29, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Early Action, Health, Shelter, WASH

National EAP for Monsoon Riverine Flood - Bangladesh

This National Early Action Protocol (EAP) is a standardized, harmonized protocol for all stakeholders to guide in implementing anticipatory actions for riverine flood-prone areas of Bangladesh, …

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EAP July 25, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Early Action, Health, Shelter, WASH

Simplified EAP for Floods: Yemen

This framework sets out the anticipatory actions that the Yemen Red Crescent Society will take ahead of floods. It also sets out the trigger thresholds and financing available.

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EAP July 22, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Early Action, Health, Shelter, WASH

EAP annual report 2024: Kenya | Floods

This report summarizes the annual readiness and pre-positioning activities, and the anticipatory actions done, for floods in 2024 by the Kenya Red Cross Society.

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EAP July 02, 2024

Early Action, Health, Scaling up, Shelter, WASH

National Early Action Protocol for Cyclone in Bangladesh

Bangladesh's National Early Action Protocol aims to develop a guideline for anticipatory actions using skilful forecasts with defined coordination(s) for the taskforce and other partners. It has …

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EAP June 04, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Early Action, Health

EAP summary: Guatemala - Floods associated with Tropical Cyclones

This document is a summary of Guatemala's Early Action Protocol for Floods associated with Tropical Cyclones. It sets out the preagreed financing, the triggers (thresholds) and the anticipatory …

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EAP November 07, 2023

Cash & Voucher, Early Action, Health

Early Action Protocol (EAP) summary for Volcanic Ash in Ecuador

This document summarizes Ecuador's Early Action Protocol (EAP) for Volcanic Ash.

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Contact

Please get in touch with the co-chairs below for more information about joining the working group.

Co-leads Red Cross Red Crescent Working Group on Anticipatory Action and Health

Tilly Alcayna

Technical advisor - health and climate change

Climate Centre

Raise your Question

Mélanie Droogleever Fortuyn

Project manager

510, Netherlands Red Cross

Raise your Question

Valentina Cemulini

Health Advisor

Swedish Red Cross

Raise your Question

Søren Bøge

Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor

Swedish Red Cross

Raise your Question

Co-leads multi-agency working group

Tilly Alcayna

Technical advisor - health and climate change

Climate Centre

Raise your Question

Leo Lysandre Tremblay

Lead, Malaria Anticipation Project

Médecins sans Frontières Canada

Raise your Question

Juan Chaves-Gonzalez

Humanitarian Affairs Officer at United Nations

OCHA

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Working group resources

Terms of Reference - RCRC Working Group

The Anticipation Hub Working Group on Anticipatory Action (AA) and Health seeks to advance the work done by the RCRC Movement on anticipating and preventing negative health outcomes (including …

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