Trigger database

Setting a trigger is one of the essential components of establishing anticipatory humanitarian action. In the humanitarian and development context, triggers help provide decision-makers the necessary information to know when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted. In line with the impact-based forecasting approach, the trigger model is developed based on a detailed risk analysis of natural hazards, including impact assessments of past disaster events, and analysis of exposure and vulnerability data. 

This database of triggers serves as a platform for practitioners to see what triggers are being formulated and to facilitate further exchange about the trigger development process.  

With the dropdown menus and search options below, you can find trigger information according to hazard, country, sector, lead time, or vulnerability and exposure indicators. The resulting list will provide you with trigger information, a description of the trigger activation process, forecast sources, stop mechanism, and additional details of activation history, where available. The trigger information can serve as a foundation for further research and discussion when developing EAPs and anticipatory action in new contexts. 

Growing this database and keeping it up to date is a community effort. If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please download and fill out the following form and send it to Irene Amuron and the Anticipation Hub.

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Results

21
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Trigger(s)

Volcanic ash EAP Ecuador

  • Hazard(s)

    Volcanic Ash

  • Countries

    Ecuador

  • Lead time

    Long term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Livestock

  • Sector(s)

    Early warning, Health, Livelihoods, Cash, Food security

  • Description

    The volcanic ash EAP trigger is based on the emission of three special forecasting reports produced by the Ecuadorian Geophysical Institute of the National Polytechnic School (IGEPN). Special Report A is released when a significant change in the internal activity of the volcano is observed. Special Report B will detail the increase or decrease of internal activity and provide an update on eruptive activity with an approximate lead time of 7 days. Finally, Special Report C will detail the most likely scenarios and possible impact on the community with a lead time of 24 hours. These three reports are analyzed and combined with an intervention map to identify where the early actions will be implemented.

    Further info:

    Report A does not define a lead time. Special Report  B and/or Special Report C shall  indicate the most likely scenarios and lead times when released (approximately 7 days for Special Report  B and 24 hours for Special Report C)

  • Lead Time:

    2 month (estimated)

  • Forecast Source

    National:

    Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI) & Geophysical Institute of the National Polytechnic School (IGEPN)

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Livestock:

    Number of cattle head per province near volcanoes

  • Probability

    N/A

  • Return Period

    Dependent on each volcano

  • Stop Mechanism

    Upon issuance of Special Report B, which indicates update of conditions of the volcano's internal activity. When this report indicates that the volcano's internal activity (sisimcity, degassing and deformation) has decreased and stabilized, intervention will be lifted.

Trigger(s)

Flood EAP Bangladesh

  • Hazard(s)

    Flood

  • Countries

    Bangladesh

  • Lead time

    Medium term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure

  • Sector(s)

    Early warning, Cash

  • Description

    The flood EAP has two triggers. Trigger one which initiates preparatory actions is met if the 10-day forecast indicates a probability greater than 50% of a 10-year flood lasting more than three days. The second trigger, which initiates the early actions, is met if the 5-day deterministic forecast confirms that floods are still imminent and that flooding will damage more than 25% of households’ assets or affect 40% of the population.

  • Lead Time:

    1st trigger (Pre-activation) 10 days; 2nd trigger (Activation): 5 days

  • Forecast Source

    1st trigger (Pre-activation):

    International: Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS)

    2nd trigger (Activation):

    National: Flood Forecast and Warning Centre (FFWC) 

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic: 

    Poverty, dependents

    Geographic location: 

    Topography, geographic exposure

    Shelter & infrastructure:

    Construction

  • Probability

    1st trigger: 50%; 2nd trigger: N/A50%

  • Return Period

    1st trigger: 10 years; 2nd trigger: N/A

  • Stop Mechanism

    Prior to second-step of trigger / 5 days ahead of flood, upon observation & forecasts. None due to short lead time.

  • EAP activation history

    • Pre-activation: 25 June 2020
    • Trigger: 26 June 2020
    • Final activation trigger: 28 June 2020 

Do you have a question?

If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please reach out to me.

Irene Amuron

Technical Advisor on Forecast-based Financing

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Featured image by NASA/ Joshua Stevens