Trigger database

Setting a trigger is one of the essential components of establishing anticipatory humanitarian action. In the humanitarian and development context, triggers help provide decision-makers the necessary information to know when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted. In line with the impact-based forecasting approach, the trigger model is developed based on a detailed risk analysis of natural hazards, including impact assessments of past disaster events, and analysis of exposure and vulnerability data. 

This database of triggers serves as a platform for practitioners to see what triggers are being formulated and to facilitate further exchange about the trigger development process.  

With the dropdown menus and search options below, you can find trigger information according to hazard, country, sector, lead time, or vulnerability and exposure indicators. The resulting list will provide you with trigger information, a description of the trigger activation process, forecast sources, stop mechanism, and additional details of activation history, where available. The trigger information can serve as a foundation for further research and discussion when developing EAPs and anticipatory action in new contexts. 

Growing this database and keeping it up to date is a community effort. If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please download and fill out the following form and send it to Irene Amuron and the Anticipation Hub.

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Results

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Trigger(s)

El Niño & Extreme Rainfall EAP Ecuador

  • Hazard(s)

    El Niño / Extreme Rainfall

  • Countries

    Ecuador

  • Lead time

    Medium term, Long term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure, Access to services & infrastructure

  • Sector(s)

    WASH, Health, Cash, Assessments

  • Description

    The El Niño EAP has three triggers. The first trigger which initiates some preparation activities has a 3-month lead time and activates when the Regional Office for the Study of El Niño (ERFEN), forecasts a 70% chance of a strong or extraordinary El Niño and the seasonal forecast from the National Meteorology and Hydrology Institute (INAMHI) shows a probability greater than 70% of exceeding the rainfall threshold (90th percentile) along areas of the Peruvian coast. The second trigger which initiates early actions has a 1-month lead time and is met when the INAMHI monthly forecast indicates a probability greater than 70% of exceeding the rainfall threshold (90th percentile). Finally, the third trigger has a 5 to 7-day lead time and is met when the short-term forecasts reach a level-4 warning, which corresponds to accumulated rainfall above the 99th percentile (very extreme), with a probability of greater than 60%.

  • Lead Time:

    Seasonal forecast: 3 months; Sub-seasonal forecast: 1 month; Medium-term forecast: 5-7 days

  • Forecast Source

    National: National Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology (INAMHI) & Regional Office for Study of El Nino (ERFEN)

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic:

    Poverty

    Geographic location: 

    Geographical exposure

    Shelter & infrastructure:

    Shelter type

    Access to services & infrastructure:

    Access to emergency services, preparation

  • Probability

    70% exceeding 90%

  • Return Period

    10 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    No confirmation of forecast 1 month before action triggered.

Trigger(s)

Flood EAP Peru

  • Hazard(s)

    Flood

  • Countries

    Peru

  • Lead time

    Medium term, Long term

  • Risk indicators

    Socio demographic, Geographic location, Shelter & infrastructure

  • Sector(s)

    Early warning, WASH, Health, Cash

  • Description

    The flood EAP has two triggers based on the indication of exceeding flooding thresholds at several Amazon river basins directly related to rains in the Andean basin headwater. The first trigger is based on a 45-day sub-seasonal forecast predicting a greater than 75% probability of rains exceeding the threshold corresponding to the 80th percentile. The second trigger is based on a 10-day forecast exceeding the ten-year return period threshold of rain, with a probability of 60%. Based on forecast confirmations, there is a 28% probability of false alarm in the ten-day forecast.

  • Lead Time:

    1st trigger: 45 days (sub-seasonal forecast); 2nd trigger: 10 days

  • Forecast Source

    1st trigger (45 days):

    International: GloFAS Seasonal

    2nd trigger (10 days):

    International/National: GloFAS, executed by SENAMHI-Loreto 

  • Risk indicators (Vulnerability & exposure)

    Socio demographic: 

    Poverty

    Geographic location: 

    Proximity to rivers, expsoure to contaminated waters, diseases

    Shelter & infrastructure:

    Construction, materials used

  • Probability

    1st trigger: 75%; 2nd trigger: N/A

  • Return Period

    10 years

  • Stop Mechanism

    Stop mechanism attached to each trigger forecast.

    1st trigger (45 days):

    If there is no confirmation of the forecast 30 days after activating the sub-seasonal forecast, stop enacted.

    2nd trigger (10 days):

    If no confirmation of the forecast 3 days after the first alert, stop enacted.

Do you have a question?

If you or your organization would like to add to the trigger database, please reach out to me.

Irene Amuron

Technical Advisor on Forecast-based Financing

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Raise your Question

 

Featured image by NASA/ Joshua Stevens