Science and Research

Linking science, policy and practice are fundamental elements of Anticipatory Action. The evaluation of climate and social science are at the core of the design, set up and implementation of Anticipatory Action. In this section you will find information related to Anticipatory Action scientific research projects, peer reviewed academic papers available in academic journals, and research reports, including working papers and other research materials.  Research material cover a diverse range of topics from climate and weather forecasting, scalability, social protection, vulnerability, and exposure, among other crucial topics.

Find the latest academic publications:

Blog September 13, 2022

Anticipatory action with refugees and other displaced people: what needs to be considered?

Global displacement is rising, but to date, very few anticipatory action initiatives directly focus on displaced populations. This is despite the potential – and need – for anticipatory action with …

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Blog August 30, 2022

GIS & Mapping

Let’s get mappin’: building GIS capacities for anticipatory action

GIS can support many of the different phases of anticipatory action, but in many projects, staff are not familiar with the opportunities and limitations of this technology. Two training courses …

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Blog August 18, 2022

Early Warning System , Forecast , Science

Fair winds for climate forecasts in Mozambique

A collaboration between WFP and the Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology is strengthening climate forecasts and seasonal monitoring, helping to build resilience in the country.

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Blog August 17, 2022

Early Action

A streamlined NGO approach to drought-induced food insecurity in Zimbabwe: voices from EAP custodians and stakeholders

In early 2020, Welthungerhilfe began to roll out its forecast-based action mechanism to tackle drought-induced food insecurity in Zimbabwe. This blog shares the views of some of the project’s …

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Blog August 03, 2022

Impact-based Forecasting

Impact-based forecasting: moving from what weather will be to what it will do for more effective disaster risk management

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Blog August 02, 2022

Lessons Learnt , M&E

Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience: key learning and resources

After six years the Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience programme comes to an end, looking back on what was achieved and what challenges still lie ahead.

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Blog August 01, 2022

Early Action , Scaling up

First national dialogue on anticipatory action held in Nepal

Earlier this year, Nepal held its first national dialogue about anticipatory action. Delegates assessed the current status of this approach in the country – and also began to shape its future.

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Blog August 01, 2022

Cash & Voucher , Early Action , Evidence , Lessons Learnt , M&E

How does anticipatory action contribute to building resilience?

The immediate aim of anticipatory action is to reduce the immediate impacts of disasters. But evidence from Bangladesh highlights different ways in which investments in this approach can also help …

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Blog July 05, 2022

Early Warning System , Food Insecurity , Forecast , Science

Information and evidence in Yemen: a case for using predictive analytics and cross-sector collaboration for anticipatory action

Anticipatory action relies on high-quality data, but obtaining such data in crisis situations is rarely straightforward. Can predictive analytics – including the use of artificial intelligence and …

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Blog July 04, 2022

Evidence , Food Insecurity , M&E

Integrating community voices in anticipatory action: a synthesis of complex qualitative data

The ‘window of opportunity’ – the period in which people can act ahead of a crisis – varies within countries. How can anticipatory action practitioners ensure they hit this window and provide the …

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Feasibility Study

Cash & Voucher , Social Protection

A feasibility study on the potential use of cash-based social protection systems for floods

This report examines the feasibility of integrating cash-based shock-responsive social protection programmes (SRSP) within flood contingency plans in Bangladesh. The study has explored how national …

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Manual / Guideline August 11, 2022

Early Action , Lessons Learnt , Scaling up

Welthungerhilfe FbA manual: Early action identification and EAP development - step-by-step guidance

This document evaluates on the different steps to take to identify early actions and develop an EAP. It answers the questions on who is involved, the level of implementation and methods to use.

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Research Report August 02, 2022

Advocacy , Evidence , Lessons Learnt

Anticipatory action in the MENA region

This report summarizes the findings of a World Food Programme (WFP)-commissioned project called ‘Research on AA in the Arab region: state of play and accelerating action’. It establishes a baseline …

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Report July 01, 2022

Impact-based Forecasting

Gaining user insights into the research-to-operational elements of Impact-based Forecasting (IbF) from within the SHEAR programme

Impact based Forecasting (IbF) is an expanding and evolving area of research within National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and the humanitarian sector...

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What do aid workers think about the purpose of their work? - Official Practicum Report

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Report March 31, 2022

Emerging Topics , Other

Anticipatory action in refugee and IDP camps: challenges, opportunities and considerations

In the past decade, the number of climate disasters and people displaced by conflict has risen globally, illustrating a pressing need to better understand how already displaced people are impacted …

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Report March 31, 2022

Disaster Risk Financing

Anticipatory humanitarian action meets disaster risk finance – A workshop report, MCII & Anticipation Hub 2022

This report summarizes the main outcomes of the 'Anticipatory humanitarian action meets disaster risk finance' workshop, held in Berlin, 30 March 2022, and organized by the Munich Climate Insurance …

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Policy Paper May 18, 2022


Obstacles to and opportunities for anticipatory action in Somalia

This brief is the second part of a series highlighting the lessons that are emerging from a longitudinal study on anticipatory action in Somalia.

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Case Study March 31, 2022

Early Action

Resilient Communities Acting Early to Mitigate Effects of 2020-21 Monsoon Floods in Bangladesh: Stories from the Frontline

This publication portrays stories from communities acting early ahead of floods to protect their lives, assets and livelihoods in Bangladesh. It also provides insights into how the government’s …

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Case Study April 04, 2022

Early Action , Urban

Business relocation as an urban early action: lessons and challenges from a simulation in the Philippines

While most early actions implemented to date are set in rural environments, there are growing efforts to expand anticipatory action to urban settings. The Philippines Red Cross is among the …

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Who is doing research on Anticipatory Action?

Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC): The Met Office is working in partnership with the World Bank and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) on the UK aid funded ARRCC programme. The four-year programme, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The programme will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks, including Impact based Forecasting for Early Action in Bangladesh and Nepal.

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Forecast for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (FATHUM) researchers are linking together research on forecast predictability and skill, complex drivers of risk, multi-actor perspectives on successful implementation and financing mechanisms to catalyse and facilitate the scale-up of Forecast-based Financing (FbF) for effective, appropriate and impactful action before a disaster.

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Exploring options for forecast-based early action in the Eastern Caribbean:  The Caribbean is highly exposed to extreme weather and climate events including drought, tropical cyclones and flooding.  When an extreme event is forecast, action taken before the event occurs can significantly reduce losses, damage and suffering. Caribbean governments and their partners are already taking early action; however, there is potential to strengthen these interventions.

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Towards Forecast based Preparedness Action (ForPAC) is a ‘research to action’ project seeking to provide advanced forecast products and information platforms to project partners in Kenya in order to advance a move towards forecast-based action for flood and drought hazards. The goal is to strengthen resilience to climate-related risks and reduce the impacts of these risks on the lives and livelihoods of those who are mostly vulnerable communities in Kenya.

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NASA Towards A Global Flood & Flash Flood Early Warning Early Action System Driven by NASA Earth Observations and Hydrologic Models

In the current state, disaster management organizations in developing countries are not preparing sufficiently for flash floods. This initiative aims to enhance disaster manager capacity to better prepare, respond and recover to flooding events.

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The PICSEA project results contain communication and training material for weather forecasters, tropical meteorologists and humanitarians. 

This includes a  selection of stimulating videos, animations, audio and mapping of tropical cyclones.

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Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) is undertaking innovative research in the most hazard-prone parts of the world to better understand and predict disasters and minimise the risk they pose to vulnerable communities.

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Is your project missing?

If you would like to add your own project, please contact Dorothy Heinrich with the following information: Name of the project, 50-word description, focal person and contact information, and website link.

The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap

To move forward with the ambitious agenda of scaling up anticipatory action, there are a number of critical research questions remaining. Addressing these policy, strategic and operational gaps can support practitioners and scientists to develop sustainable, effective, and people-centred anticipatory action systems at scale. The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap identifies five goals for the success of FbF at the top and lists critical research questions that need to be addressed to help achieve these goals. The priority research questions identified, and related to incentives of different actors should inform the investment and design of anticipatory action systems in the future. It is important to note that interdisciplinary research involves practitioners in the design and analysis is critical for uptake and what we research is only as important as how we research it.

Find and contribute to the Research Roadmap here

Emerging topics

In expanding the use of anticipatory action to address more risks, be applicable in more contexts and strengthen overall disaster risk financing approaches, experts and practitioners are engaging in multi-disciplinary collaboration to enable anticipatory action to be applied where and when it is needed using adapted tools, innovative solutions and new ways of working.

More about emerging topics

Do you have a question?

Erin Coughlan

Manager Science Team

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Dorothy Heinrich

Technical Advisor

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Liz Stephens

Science Lead

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Arielle Tozier de la Poterie

Global advisor Early Action and Research

German Red Cross

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