Science and Research

Linking science, policy and practice are fundamental elements of Anticipatory Action. The evaluation of climate and social science are at the core of the design, set up and implementation of Anticipatory Action. In this section you will find information related to Anticipatory Action scientific research projects, peer reviewed academic papers available in academic journals, and research reports, including working papers and other research materials.  Research material cover a diverse range of topics from climate and weather forecasting, scalability, social protection, vulnerability, and exposure, among other crucial topics.

Find the latest academic publications:

Blog September 11, 2024

Social Protection

From reactive to proactive: anticipatory action for drought through social protection systems in the Philippines

Anticipatory action can reduce the impacts of slow-onset disasters on rural farming communities. One example is the successful implementation of a pilot scheme to act ahead of the El Niño-induced …

Learn more
Blog June 14, 2024

GIS & Mapping

Simulating anticipatory actions as part of disaster management: MapEx 2024

The 18th edition of MapEx was recently held in the UK. For the first time, the imagined scenario – a cyclone in Madagascar – included major anticipatory action components.

Learn more
Blog June 03, 2024

Advocacy, Scaling up

How anticipatory action links to the Grand Bargain

A session at Humanitarian Networks and Partnerships Week explored how the Grand Bargain could support efforts to scale up anticipatory action. In this blog, Hannes Serocki and Matthias Amling …

Learn more
Blog May 29, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Early Action, Lessons Learnt

Une première activation complète d’action anticipatoire au Burundi

Les précipitations extrêmes et les inondations sont des risques dévastateurs au Burundi. En octobre 2023, des précipitations extrêmes ont été prévues pour le pays, ce qui a conduit à la première …

Learn more
Blog May 16, 2024

Early Action, Lessons Learnt

The first official anticipatory action activation in Burundi

Extreme rainfall events and flooding are devastating hazards in Burundi. In October 2023, extreme rainfall was forecast for the country, leading to the the first anticipatory action activation. This …

Learn more
Blog April 18, 2024

Early Action, Early Warning System, Impact-based Forecasting

AWARE: a digitally enabled governance platform for effective anticipatory action ahead of climate shocks

As the climate crisis worsens, at-risk countries need anticipatory action to cope with the devastating impacts. ClimBeR’s AWARE platform is helping countries including Senegal and Zambia to protect …

Learn more
Blog April 15, 2024

Early Warning System, Emerging Topics, Trigger Development

Citizens as hazard forecasters: how citizen science can strengthen anticipatory action

There is a small but growing number of examples of citizen science playing an active role in anticipatory action and early warnings. Can - and should - it play a greater role in the data used for …

Learn more
Blog April 08, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Social Protection

Linking Nepal’s social protection programmes with anticipatory action

Nepal has a diverse portfolio of social protection programmes and humanitarian organizations are finding creative ways to use these for anticipatory action and disaster-response activities.

Learn more
Blog March 28, 2024

Lessons Learnt, Locally led, Trigger Development

How P-FIM adds value to developing protocols for anticipatory action

In the second of a two-part blog, Welthungerhilfe explains how the People First Impact Method, known as P-FIM, contributes to ensuring that protocols for anticipatory action are developed through a …

Learn more
Blog March 23, 2024

Other

A new head for the Anticipation Hub

Alessandra Gilotta recently assumed the role of head of the Anticipation Hub. In this interview, she tells us a little about her experience in the humanitarian sector and her ambitions for this new …

Learn more
Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet September 02, 2024

Advocacy, Scaling up

Ampliación de la Acción Anticipada América Latina y Caribe

Download file
Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet September 02, 2024

Early Warning System, Forecast, Future leaders, Science, Trigger Development

The importance of connecting regional and national meteorological and hydrological services with anticipatory action practitioners

For organizations that implement anticipatory action ahead of climate- and weather-related hazards, collaborating with regional and national meteorological and hydrological services is essential for …

Download file
Other July 23, 2024

Scaling up

Technical Group on Anticipatory Action - terms of reference

This document outlines the terms of reference for the Technical Group on Anticipatory Action in the Latin America and the Caribbean region.

Download file
Other July 08, 2024

Reaching the First Mile: Anticipatory Climate Action in Complex Humanitarian Settings in MENA

A brochure explaining how Weather and Climate Information Services (WISER) Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Istibak will support the development of anticipatory action in the MENA region.

Download file
Policy Paper July 03, 2024

Advocacy, Scaling up

Why early warnings are not leading to early action?

In 2022, the Finnish Red Cross started a new project with the Kenya Red Cross Society, the Rwanda Red Cross and the Tanzania Red Cross Society focusing on the information flow between meteorological …

Download file
Academic papers, Analysis, Report, Research Report, Working group July 02, 2024

Plan International learning report

This report has collated learning and best practices from Anticipatory Action (AA) initiatives implemented across seven countries, including: Bangladesh, El Salvador, Indonesia, Nepal, …

Download file
Evaluation June 26, 2024

Trigger Development

Trigger Review Template

Download file
Policy Paper June 25, 2024

Emerging Topics

A Light in the Dark: How Media and Communication Can Support Anticipatory Action to Prevent Humanitarian Emergencies

This policy note explores the roles that media and communication can play in anticipatory action planning, organizational anticipatory action, and supporting communities to take action ahead of …

Download file
Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet June 04, 2024

Early Action, Gender & Inclusion, Impact-based Forecasting

Project Factsheet: Strengthening Inclusion in Anticipatory Action (i2A)

The i2A project seeks to enhance positive impact for vulnerable populations most at risk of disaster through addressing gaps and scaling up good practice for inclusive, people-centred anticipatory …

Download file
Manual / Guideline June 04, 2024

Gender & Inclusion

Anticipatory action: a child-centered guide - spanish version

Spanish version of Anticipatory action: a child-centered guide from Save the Children This AA Guide is designed to provide practical guidance to Save the Children teams on how to plan, design and …

Download file

Who is doing research on Anticipatory Action?

Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC): The Met Office is working in partnership with the World Bank and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) on the UK aid funded ARRCC programme. The four-year programme, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The programme will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks, including Impact based Forecasting for Early Action in Bangladesh and Nepal.

Learn more.

Forecast for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (FATHUM) researchers are linking together research on forecast predictability and skill, complex drivers of risk, multi-actor perspectives on successful implementation and financing mechanisms to catalyse and facilitate the scale-up of Forecast-based Financing (FbF) for effective, appropriate and impactful action before a disaster.

Learn more.

Exploring options for forecast-based early action in the Eastern Caribbean:  The Caribbean is highly exposed to extreme weather and climate events including drought, tropical cyclones and flooding.  When an extreme event is forecast, action taken before the event occurs can significantly reduce losses, damage and suffering. Caribbean governments and their partners are already taking early action; however, there is potential to strengthen these interventions.

Learn more.

Towards Forecast based Preparedness Action (ForPAC) is a ‘research to action’ project seeking to provide advanced forecast products and information platforms to project partners in Kenya in order to advance a move towards forecast-based action for flood and drought hazards. The goal is to strengthen resilience to climate-related risks and reduce the impacts of these risks on the lives and livelihoods of those who are mostly vulnerable communities in Kenya.

Learn more. 

NASA Towards A Global Flood & Flash Flood Early Warning Early Action System Driven by NASA Earth Observations and Hydrologic Models

In the current state, disaster management organizations in developing countries are not preparing sufficiently for flash floods. This initiative aims to enhance disaster manager capacity to better prepare, respond and recover to flooding events.

Learn more.

The PICSEA project results contain communication and training material for weather forecasters, tropical meteorologists and humanitarians. 

This includes a  selection of stimulating videos, animations, audio and mapping of tropical cyclones.

Learn more.

Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) is undertaking innovative research in the most hazard-prone parts of the world to better understand and predict disasters and minimise the risk they pose to vulnerable communities.

Learn more.

The Academic Alliance on Anticipatory Action (4As, or “Straight As”) is working to build the evidence base on Anticipatory Action through a combination of impact evaluations of real-time anticipatory action and research to improve the development of anticipatory action programs and identify the most effective ways to help the most vulnerable people before a crisis pushes them further into life-threatening situations. 4As is a consortium of universities from around the world supported by the United States Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA).

Is your project missing?

If you would like to add your own project, please contact Dorothy Heinrich with the following information: Name of the project, 50-word description, focal person and contact information, and website link.

The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap

To move forward with the ambitious agenda of scaling up anticipatory action, there are a number of critical research questions remaining. Addressing these policy, strategic and operational gaps can support practitioners and scientists to develop sustainable, effective, and people-centred anticipatory action systems at scale. The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap identifies five goals for the success of FbF at the top and lists critical research questions that need to be addressed to help achieve these goals. The priority research questions identified, and related to incentives of different actors should inform the investment and design of anticipatory action systems in the future. It is important to note that interdisciplinary research involves practitioners in the design and analysis is critical for uptake and what we research is only as important as how we research it.

Find and contribute to the Research Roadmap here

Emerging topics

In expanding the use of anticipatory action to address more risks, be applicable in more contexts and strengthen overall disaster risk financing approaches, experts and practitioners are engaging in multi-disciplinary collaboration to enable anticipatory action to be applied where and when it is needed using adapted tools, innovative solutions and new ways of working.

More about emerging topics

Do you have a question?

Erin Coughlan

Manager Science Team

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Raise your Question

Dorothy Heinrich

Technical Advisor

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Raise your Question

Liz Stephens

Science Lead

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Raise your Question

Arielle Tozier de la Poterie

Global advisor Early Action and Research

German Red Cross

Raise your Question