Science and Research

Linking science, policy and practice are fundamental elements of Anticipatory Action. The evaluation of climate and social science are at the core of the design, set up and implementation of Anticipatory Action. In this section you will find information related to Anticipatory Action scientific research projects, peer reviewed academic papers available in academic journals, and research reports, including working papers and other research materials.  Research material cover a diverse range of topics from climate and weather forecasting, scalability, social protection, vulnerability, and exposure, among other crucial topics.

Find the latest academic publications:

Blog December 02, 2024

GIS & Mapping

Using geoinformation for anticipatory action frameworks: a technical training workshop in Pakistan

Geoinformation plays a critical role in anticipatory action, providing a clear, data-driven picture of where the risks are highest and which areas are most vulnerable to hazards. A recent workshop …

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Blog November 29, 2024

Early Action, Health, WASH

Learning by doing: lessons from anticipatory actions ahead of floods in Zambia

In January 2023, the Zambian Red Cross Society activated its EAP for Floods. Later that year, the Netherlands Red Cross commissioned a study to learn lessons from this activation; this provided …

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Blog October 16, 2024

Early Action, Lessons Learnt

Anticipating tropical cyclones in Madagascar: Start Network’s experience

Since 2021, Start Network has been anticipating tropical cyclones in Madagascar, financing anticipation and early-response projects in the country. This blog captures some of the lessons learned …

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Blog October 14, 2024

Locally led

Strengthening locally led anticipatory action in Pakistan

Pakistan’s unique geographical landscape means its communities face rising threats from a number of hazards – but locally led anticipatory action is offering a way to mitigate the impacts.

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Blog October 11, 2024

Early Warning System, Locally led

Should I stay or should I go? Actionable early warnings for floods in Kenya

Having a flood-forecasting system in place is not enough: early warnings need to be understandable and actionable for communities. The partners of the WAHAFA programme in Kenya tested the readiness …

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Blog October 11, 2024

Early Action, Scaling up, Trigger Development

Drill leads to skill! Simulating anticipatory actions ahead of floods in Kenya

Simulation exercises provide an opportunity for stakeholders to practice and refine the different phases of anticipatory action. Partners in the WAHAFA project recently held a simulation of their …

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Blog September 11, 2024

Social Protection

From reactive to proactive: anticipatory action for drought through social protection systems in the Philippines

Anticipatory action can reduce the impacts of slow-onset disasters on rural farming communities. One example is the successful implementation of a pilot scheme to act ahead of the El Niño-induced …

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Blog June 14, 2024

GIS & Mapping

Simulating anticipatory actions as part of disaster management: MapEx 2024

The 18th edition of MapEx was recently held in the UK. For the first time, the imagined scenario – a cyclone in Madagascar – included major anticipatory action components.

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Blog June 03, 2024

Advocacy, Scaling up

How anticipatory action links to the Grand Bargain

A session at Humanitarian Networks and Partnerships Week explored how the Grand Bargain could support efforts to scale up anticipatory action. In this blog, Hannes Serocki and Matthias Amling …

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Blog May 29, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Early Action, Lessons Learnt

Une première activation complète d’action anticipatoire au Burundi

Les précipitations extrêmes et les inondations sont des risques dévastateurs au Burundi. En octobre 2023, des précipitations extrêmes ont été prévues pour le pays, ce qui a conduit à la première …

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Report December 19, 2024

Evidence, GIS & Mapping

Anticipatory action in Asia and the Pacific: results of the 2024 regional mapping

This report presents the findings from the 2024 mapping exercise to track the progression of anticipatory action in Asia and the Pacific, conducted by the Asia-Pacific Technical Working Group on …

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Other December 11, 2024

Other

Anticipatory action lexicon for translators

This lexicon was produced to support the translation of the Anticipation Hub’s learning modules. It is available for others to use for their own projects. This version was created by Instituto …

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Presentation December 10, 2024

Forecast, Health

Southern Africa Seasonal Outlook Dec-Feb 2024-2025

This presentation contains climate information for southern Africa for the December–January–February (DJF) period 2024/25, with a focus on what this outlook means in terms of health impacts.

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Case Study November 12, 2024

Early Action, Food Insecurity

Anticipating impacts before disaster in Zimbabwe

Across Southern Africa, drought threatens to push people to the brink of disaster. Regionally, 68 million people are food insecure and in Zimbabwe alone, 6 million people are at risk due to the …

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet November 07, 2024

Advocacy, Gender & Inclusion, Locally led

Better Safe Than Sorry: Four fundamentals for scaling up anticipatory action

In the context of ever-increasing humanitarian needs worldwide, anticipatory action is being recognised as one of main the ways in which predictable shocks can be prevented from turning into crises, …

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Presentation November 05, 2024

Forecast, Health

Central America and Caribbean Climate Seasonal Outlook: August–October 2024

This presentation contains climate information for Central America and the Caribbean for the August–September–October (ASO) period 2024, with a focus on what this outlook means in terms of health …

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Case Study October 28, 2024

Zambia Floods Early Action Protocol Activation Case Study

A study on the activation of the early action protocol for riverine floods by the Zambia Red Cross Society from January 2023

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Presentation October 21, 2024

Forecast, Health

Bulletin Saisonnier Afrique de l’Ouest octobre à décembre (OND) 2024

Cette présentation contient des informations climatiques pour la région de l'Afrique de l'Ouest pour la période octobre à décembre (OND) 2024, en mettant l'accent sur ce que ces perspectives …

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Presentation October 21, 2024

Forecast, Health

West Africa Climate Seasonal Outlook: October–December 2024

This presentation contains climate information for the West Africa region for the October–November–December (OND) period 2024, with a focus on what this outlook means in terms of health impacts.

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Manual / Guideline October 21, 2024

Advocacy, Early Action, Early Warning System

Handbook on the use of Risk Knowledge for Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems

The EW4All initiative is a global effort that aims to ensure that everyone on the Earth is protected from hazardous events by 2027 through lifesaving early warning systems. This handbook is a guide …

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Who is doing research on Anticipatory Action?

Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC): The Met Office is working in partnership with the World Bank and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) on the UK aid funded ARRCC programme. The four-year programme, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The programme will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks, including Impact based Forecasting for Early Action in Bangladesh and Nepal.

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Forecast for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (FATHUM) researchers are linking together research on forecast predictability and skill, complex drivers of risk, multi-actor perspectives on successful implementation and financing mechanisms to catalyse and facilitate the scale-up of Forecast-based Financing (FbF) for effective, appropriate and impactful action before a disaster.

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Exploring options for forecast-based early action in the Eastern Caribbean:  The Caribbean is highly exposed to extreme weather and climate events including drought, tropical cyclones and flooding.  When an extreme event is forecast, action taken before the event occurs can significantly reduce losses, damage and suffering. Caribbean governments and their partners are already taking early action; however, there is potential to strengthen these interventions.

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Towards Forecast based Preparedness Action (ForPAC) is a ‘research to action’ project seeking to provide advanced forecast products and information platforms to project partners in Kenya in order to advance a move towards forecast-based action for flood and drought hazards. The goal is to strengthen resilience to climate-related risks and reduce the impacts of these risks on the lives and livelihoods of those who are mostly vulnerable communities in Kenya.

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NASA Towards A Global Flood & Flash Flood Early Warning Early Action System Driven by NASA Earth Observations and Hydrologic Models

In the current state, disaster management organizations in developing countries are not preparing sufficiently for flash floods. This initiative aims to enhance disaster manager capacity to better prepare, respond and recover to flooding events.

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The PICSEA project results contain communication and training material for weather forecasters, tropical meteorologists and humanitarians. 

This includes a  selection of stimulating videos, animations, audio and mapping of tropical cyclones.

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Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) is undertaking innovative research in the most hazard-prone parts of the world to better understand and predict disasters and minimise the risk they pose to vulnerable communities.

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The Academic Alliance on Anticipatory Action (4As, or “Straight As”) is working to build the evidence base on Anticipatory Action through a combination of impact evaluations of real-time anticipatory action and research to improve the development of anticipatory action programs and identify the most effective ways to help the most vulnerable people before a crisis pushes them further into life-threatening situations. 4As is a consortium of universities from around the world supported by the United States Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA).

Is your project missing?

If you would like to add your own project, please contact Dorothy Heinrich with the following information: Name of the project, 50-word description, focal person and contact information, and website link.

The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap

To move forward with the ambitious agenda of scaling up anticipatory action, there are a number of critical research questions remaining. Addressing these policy, strategic and operational gaps can support practitioners and scientists to develop sustainable, effective, and people-centred anticipatory action systems at scale. The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap identifies five goals for the success of FbF at the top and lists critical research questions that need to be addressed to help achieve these goals. The priority research questions identified, and related to incentives of different actors should inform the investment and design of anticipatory action systems in the future. It is important to note that interdisciplinary research involves practitioners in the design and analysis is critical for uptake and what we research is only as important as how we research it.

Find and contribute to the Research Roadmap here

Emerging topics

In expanding the use of anticipatory action to address more risks, be applicable in more contexts and strengthen overall disaster risk financing approaches, experts and practitioners are engaging in multi-disciplinary collaboration to enable anticipatory action to be applied where and when it is needed using adapted tools, innovative solutions and new ways of working.

More about emerging topics

Do you have a question?

Erin Coughlan

Manager Science Team

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Dorothy Heinrich

Technical Advisor

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Liz Stephens

Science Lead

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Arielle Tozier de la Poterie

Global advisor Early Action and Research

German Red Cross

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