Science and Research

Linking science, policy and practice are fundamental elements of Anticipatory Action. The evaluation of climate and social science are at the core of the design, set up and implementation of Anticipatory Action. In this section you will find information related to Anticipatory Action scientific research projects, peer reviewed academic papers available in academic journals, and research reports, including working papers and other research materials.  Research material cover a diverse range of topics from climate and weather forecasting, scalability, social protection, vulnerability, and exposure, among other crucial topics.

Find the latest academic publications:

Blog January 16, 2023

Advocacy, M&E, Other, Scaling up

A new year – and a new phase for the Anticipation Hub

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Blog November 29, 2022

Early Action

Exploring the potential for anticipatory action ahead of drought: farmers in Lao PDR have their say

In Lao PDR, FAO and its partners are using community consultations to ensure that planned anticipatory actions ahead of drought really meet people’s needs – and address the challenges they are …

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Blog

Advocacy, Disaster Risk Financing, Early Action, Evidence, Scaling up

What does success look like? Understanding the potential for proactive humanitarian action in a climate-uncertain world

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Blog October 24, 2022

Early Action, Scaling up

A new framework to improve collaboration on anticipatory action in South-East Asia

ASEAN’s Framework on Anticipatory Action in Disaster Management marks a core commitment to advancing the coherency and coordination of anticipatory action in the region.

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Blog October 21, 2022

Health

Anticipatory action: what is the state of play for health-related applications in the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement?

Most anticipatory action initiatives focus on extreme climate and weather events. There is, though, the potential to apply this approach for other types of hazard – and a recent mapping exercise …

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Blog October 18, 2022

Early Action

Flash floods in Bangladesh – and the way forward for the anticipatory action community

Bangladesh has extensive experience in acting ahead of hazards and extreme events. But when severe floods hit in June 2022, no anticipatory action protocols were implemented. This article explains …

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Blog

Advocacy, Early Action

Acting early before disasters hit: how business help scale up anticipatory action

In light of the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction, and its focus this year on early action, we are showcasing the importance of anticipatory action, a framework that builds on early …

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Blog September 13, 2022

Anticipatory action with refugees and other displaced people: what needs to be considered?

Global displacement is rising, but to date, very few anticipatory action initiatives directly focus on displaced populations. This is despite the potential – and need – for anticipatory action with …

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Blog August 30, 2022

GIS & Mapping

Let’s get mappin’: building GIS capacities for anticipatory action

GIS can support many of the different phases of anticipatory action, but in many projects, staff are not familiar with the opportunities and limitations of this technology. Two training courses …

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Blog August 18, 2022

Early Warning System, Forecast, Science

Fair winds for climate forecasts in Mozambique

A collaboration between WFP and the Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology is strengthening climate forecasts and seasonal monitoring, helping to build resilience in the country.

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Case Study

Early Action

Study on the Use of Climate-related Indigenous Knowledge Systems to Support Anticipatory Action in Zimbabwe, October 2022

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is piloting the Anticipatory Action (AA) approach in Zimbabwe. AA is designed to manage climate risks by acting in anticipation of severe weather …

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Policy Paper

Advocacy, Early Action, Scaling up

Minimizing loss and damage through anticipatory action: how the climate and development community can help to bring this approach to scale

This paper looks at what role anticipatory action can play in minimizing climate-related losses and damages and what the climate and development community can do to bring this approach to scale.

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Report October 18, 2022

Early Action

Rapport de déclenchement PAP inondation

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet

Early Action, Health

Infectious disease warnings - multi-sectoral integration briefing note

The UCL Warning Research Centre launched a Warnings Briefing Notes series, supported by the Global Disaster Preparedness Centre (GDPC) and the Anticipation Hub. These two-page documents are designed …

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet

Early Action, Early Warning System, Gender & Inclusion

Inclusive warnings - Involving everyone in warning processes briefing note

The UCL Warning Research Centre launched a Warnings Briefing Notes series, supported by the Global Disaster Preparedness Centre (GDPC) and the Anticipation Hub. These two-page documents are designed …

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet

Early Action, Early Warning System

Enhancing warnings - Developing and supporting effective warnings briefing note

The UCL Warning Research Centre launched a Warnings Briefing Notes series, supported by the Global Disaster Preparedness Centre (GDPC) and the Anticipation Hub. These two-page documents are designed …

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Report October 18, 2022

Early Action

Flood early action protocol trigger report Mali

This report looks at the activation of the early action protocol (EAP) for floods in Mali. The EAP was developed with an implementation period of 4 days before the arrival of the flood. Thus, the …

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Feasibility Study

Cash & Voucher, Social Protection

A feasibility study on the potential use of cash-based social protection systems for floods in Bangladesh

This report examines the feasibility of integrating cash-based shock-responsive social protection programmes (SRSP) within flood contingency plans in Bangladesh. Data was collected over a period of …

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Manual / Guideline August 11, 2022

Early Action, Lessons Learnt, Scaling up

Welthungerhilfe FbA manual: Early action identification and EAP development - step-by-step guidance

This document evaluates on the different steps to take to identify early actions and develop an EAP. It answers the questions on who is involved, the level of implementation and methods to use.

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Research Report August 02, 2022

Advocacy, Evidence, Lessons Learnt

Anticipatory action in the MENA region

This report summarizes the findings of a World Food Programme (WFP)-commissioned project called ‘Research on AA in the Arab region: state of play and accelerating action’. It establishes a baseline …

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Who is doing research on Anticipatory Action?

Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC): The Met Office is working in partnership with the World Bank and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) on the UK aid funded ARRCC programme. The four-year programme, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The programme will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks, including Impact based Forecasting for Early Action in Bangladesh and Nepal.

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Forecast for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (FATHUM) researchers are linking together research on forecast predictability and skill, complex drivers of risk, multi-actor perspectives on successful implementation and financing mechanisms to catalyse and facilitate the scale-up of Forecast-based Financing (FbF) for effective, appropriate and impactful action before a disaster.

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Exploring options for forecast-based early action in the Eastern Caribbean:  The Caribbean is highly exposed to extreme weather and climate events including drought, tropical cyclones and flooding.  When an extreme event is forecast, action taken before the event occurs can significantly reduce losses, damage and suffering. Caribbean governments and their partners are already taking early action; however, there is potential to strengthen these interventions.

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Towards Forecast based Preparedness Action (ForPAC) is a ‘research to action’ project seeking to provide advanced forecast products and information platforms to project partners in Kenya in order to advance a move towards forecast-based action for flood and drought hazards. The goal is to strengthen resilience to climate-related risks and reduce the impacts of these risks on the lives and livelihoods of those who are mostly vulnerable communities in Kenya.

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NASA Towards A Global Flood & Flash Flood Early Warning Early Action System Driven by NASA Earth Observations and Hydrologic Models

In the current state, disaster management organizations in developing countries are not preparing sufficiently for flash floods. This initiative aims to enhance disaster manager capacity to better prepare, respond and recover to flooding events.

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The PICSEA project results contain communication and training material for weather forecasters, tropical meteorologists and humanitarians. 

This includes a  selection of stimulating videos, animations, audio and mapping of tropical cyclones.

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Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) is undertaking innovative research in the most hazard-prone parts of the world to better understand and predict disasters and minimise the risk they pose to vulnerable communities.

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Is your project missing?

If you would like to add your own project, please contact Dorothy Heinrich with the following information: Name of the project, 50-word description, focal person and contact information, and website link.

The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap

To move forward with the ambitious agenda of scaling up anticipatory action, there are a number of critical research questions remaining. Addressing these policy, strategic and operational gaps can support practitioners and scientists to develop sustainable, effective, and people-centred anticipatory action systems at scale. The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap identifies five goals for the success of FbF at the top and lists critical research questions that need to be addressed to help achieve these goals. The priority research questions identified, and related to incentives of different actors should inform the investment and design of anticipatory action systems in the future. It is important to note that interdisciplinary research involves practitioners in the design and analysis is critical for uptake and what we research is only as important as how we research it.

Find and contribute to the Research Roadmap here

Emerging topics

In expanding the use of anticipatory action to address more risks, be applicable in more contexts and strengthen overall disaster risk financing approaches, experts and practitioners are engaging in multi-disciplinary collaboration to enable anticipatory action to be applied where and when it is needed using adapted tools, innovative solutions and new ways of working.

More about emerging topics

Do you have a question?

Erin Coughlan

Manager Science Team

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Dorothy Heinrich

Technical Advisor

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Liz Stephens

Science Lead

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Arielle Tozier de la Poterie

Global advisor Early Action and Research

German Red Cross

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