Science and Research

Linking science, policy and practice are fundamental elements of Anticipatory Action. The evaluation of climate and social science are at the core of the design, set up and implementation of Anticipatory Action. In this section you will find information related to Anticipatory Action scientific research projects, peer reviewed academic papers available in academic journals, and research reports, including working papers and other research materials.  Research material cover a diverse range of topics from climate and weather forecasting, scalability, social protection, vulnerability, and exposure, among other crucial topics.

Find the latest academic publications:

Blog April 30, 2025

Conflict, Early Warning System, Forecast

Early warning systems in fragile, conflict-affected and violent contexts: takeaways for anticipatory action

Anticipatory action cannot take place effectively without investment in the wider elements of early warning systems. Securing such investment is particularly challenging in fragile, …

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Blog March 18, 2025

Early Action, Food Insecurity, Gender & Inclusion

Ensuring education through a crisis: how school-feeding programmes give children ‘more than just a meal’

Slow-onset hazards can drive hunger among children, forcing them to stay at home rather than attend school. In such contexts, school-feeding programmes have emerged as a crucial anticipatory action. …

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Blog December 02, 2024

GIS & Mapping

Using geoinformation for anticipatory action frameworks: a technical training workshop in Pakistan

Geoinformation plays a critical role in anticipatory action, providing a clear, data-driven picture of where the risks are highest and which areas are most vulnerable to hazards. A recent workshop …

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Blog November 29, 2024

Early Action, Health, WASH

Learning by doing: lessons from anticipatory actions ahead of floods in Zambia

In January 2023, the Zambian Red Cross Society activated its EAP for Floods. Later that year, the Netherlands Red Cross commissioned a study to learn lessons from this activation; this provided …

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Blog October 16, 2024

Early Action, Lessons Learnt

Anticipating tropical cyclones in Madagascar: Start Network’s experience

Since 2021, Start Network has been anticipating tropical cyclones in Madagascar, financing anticipation and early-response projects in the country. This blog captures some of the lessons learned …

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Blog October 14, 2024

Locally led

Strengthening locally led anticipatory action in Pakistan

Pakistan’s unique geographical landscape means its communities face rising threats from a number of hazards – but locally led anticipatory action is offering a way to mitigate the impacts.

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Blog October 11, 2024

Early Warning System, Locally led

Should I stay or should I go? Actionable early warnings for floods in Kenya

Having a flood-forecasting system in place is not enough: early warnings need to be understandable and actionable for communities. The partners of the WAHAFA programme in Kenya tested the readiness …

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Blog October 11, 2024

Early Action, Scaling up, Trigger Development

Drill leads to skill! Simulating anticipatory actions ahead of floods in Kenya

Simulation exercises provide an opportunity for stakeholders to practice and refine the different phases of anticipatory action. Partners in the WAHAFA project recently held a simulation of their …

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Blog September 11, 2024

Social Protection

From reactive to proactive: anticipatory action for drought through social protection systems in the Philippines

Anticipatory action can reduce the impacts of slow-onset disasters on rural farming communities. One example is the successful implementation of a pilot scheme to act ahead of the El Niño-induced …

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Blog June 14, 2024

GIS & Mapping

Simulating anticipatory actions as part of disaster management: MapEx 2024

The 18th edition of MapEx was recently held in the UK. For the first time, the imagined scenario – a cyclone in Madagascar – included major anticipatory action components.

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Report May 14, 2025

Cash & Voucher, Early Warning System

Readiness and Anticipatory Action Key Learnings from Coastal Cyclone Preparedness in Bangladesh

Jointly conducted by inSights and AVAS under StartReady Learning Grant, this study examines readiness and anticipatory action (AA) in coastal Bangladesh, focusing on early warnings, cash transfers, …

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet May 06, 2025

El-nino anticipatory actions to drought and heatwave in Bangladesh

In response to El Niño-induced drought and heatwave risks, Save the Children, with RIMES and MJSKS, piloted anticipatory actions in Kurigram, Bangladesh. The project, active from June 2023 to early …

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet April 21, 2025

El-nino risk mitigation initiative for heatwave

In response to El Niño-induced drought and heatwave risks, Save the Children, with RIMES and MJSKS, piloted anticipatory actions in Kurigram, Bangladesh. The project, active from June 2023 to early …

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Case Study April 21, 2025

Lessons Learnt

Towards Anticipatory Action for Disaster Preparedness

The Forecast-based Action initiative is a pilot under Save the Children’s Anticipatory Action window, focusing on reducing the risk and vulnerability of flood-prone populations in Gaibandha and …

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet April 21, 2025

Piloting Anticipatory Action for Cold Wave in Northern District in Bangladesh

Bangladesh faces recurring cold waves, especially in the north, causing severe health and livelihood impacts. From December 2022, Save the Children piloted a Cold Wave Anticipatory Action project …

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Feasibility Study April 17, 2025

Feasibility Study on the use of Forecast-Based Action (FbA) in Yemen

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Report April 02, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

Protocole d’Action Précoces Choléra de la Croix-Rouge Camerounaise: Détails d’élaboration

En 2025, la Croix-Rouge camerounaise a finalisé son protocole d'action précoce (PAE) pour le choléra, le premier PAE pour une épidémie à être validé par la FICR. Ce cadre permettra à la Société …

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Report April 02, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

Cameroon Red Cross - Cholera Early Action Protocol: Development Details

In 2025, the Cameroon Red Cross Society finalized its Early Action Protocol (EAP) for Cholera, which was the first EAP for an epidemic to be validated by the IFRC. This framework will enable the …

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Report March 28, 2025

Early Action, Health, WASH

DREF final report: Cameroon - anticipatory action for Marburg

Following an outbreak of Marburg disease in Equatorial Guinea in 2023, the IFRC DREF supported anticipatory actions in neighbouring Cameroon to avoid the outbreak spreading. This report summarizes …

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Research Report March 18, 2025

Conflict, Lessons Learnt

Anticipatory Action for conflict-induced displacement in South Sudan

The Danish Refugee Council developed an anticipatory action approach to support conflict-affected communities in Akobo, South Sudan, piloting a model to predict potential displacement caused by …

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Who is doing research on Anticipatory Action?

Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC): The Met Office is working in partnership with the World Bank and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) on the UK aid funded ARRCC programme. The four-year programme, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The programme will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks, including Impact based Forecasting for Early Action in Bangladesh and Nepal.

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Forecast for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (FATHUM) researchers are linking together research on forecast predictability and skill, complex drivers of risk, multi-actor perspectives on successful implementation and financing mechanisms to catalyse and facilitate the scale-up of Forecast-based Financing (FbF) for effective, appropriate and impactful action before a disaster.

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Exploring options for forecast-based early action in the Eastern Caribbean:  The Caribbean is highly exposed to extreme weather and climate events including drought, tropical cyclones and flooding.  When an extreme event is forecast, action taken before the event occurs can significantly reduce losses, damage and suffering. Caribbean governments and their partners are already taking early action; however, there is potential to strengthen these interventions.

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Towards Forecast based Preparedness Action (ForPAC) is a ‘research to action’ project seeking to provide advanced forecast products and information platforms to project partners in Kenya in order to advance a move towards forecast-based action for flood and drought hazards. The goal is to strengthen resilience to climate-related risks and reduce the impacts of these risks on the lives and livelihoods of those who are mostly vulnerable communities in Kenya.

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NASA Towards A Global Flood & Flash Flood Early Warning Early Action System Driven by NASA Earth Observations and Hydrologic Models

In the current state, disaster management organizations in developing countries are not preparing sufficiently for flash floods. This initiative aims to enhance disaster manager capacity to better prepare, respond and recover to flooding events.

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The PICSEA project results contain communication and training material for weather forecasters, tropical meteorologists and humanitarians. 

This includes a  selection of stimulating videos, animations, audio and mapping of tropical cyclones.

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Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) is undertaking innovative research in the most hazard-prone parts of the world to better understand and predict disasters and minimise the risk they pose to vulnerable communities.

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The Academic Alliance on Anticipatory Action (4As, or “Straight As”) is working to build the evidence base on Anticipatory Action through a combination of impact evaluations of real-time anticipatory action and research to improve the development of anticipatory action programs and identify the most effective ways to help the most vulnerable people before a crisis pushes them further into life-threatening situations. 4As is a consortium of universities from around the world supported by the United States Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA).

Is your project missing?

If you would like to add your own project, please contact Dorothy Heinrich with the following information: Name of the project, 50-word description, focal person and contact information, and website link.

The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap

To move forward with the ambitious agenda of scaling up anticipatory action, there are a number of critical research questions remaining. Addressing these policy, strategic and operational gaps can support practitioners and scientists to develop sustainable, effective, and people-centred anticipatory action systems at scale. The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap identifies five goals for the success of FbF at the top and lists critical research questions that need to be addressed to help achieve these goals. The priority research questions identified, and related to incentives of different actors should inform the investment and design of anticipatory action systems in the future. It is important to note that interdisciplinary research involves practitioners in the design and analysis is critical for uptake and what we research is only as important as how we research it.

Find and contribute to the Research Roadmap here

Emerging topics

In expanding the use of anticipatory action to address more risks, be applicable in more contexts and strengthen overall disaster risk financing approaches, experts and practitioners are engaging in multi-disciplinary collaboration to enable anticipatory action to be applied where and when it is needed using adapted tools, innovative solutions and new ways of working.

More about emerging topics

Do you have a question?

Erin Coughlan

Manager Science Team

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Dorothy Heinrich

Technical Advisor

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Liz Stephens

Science Lead

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Arielle Tozier de la Poterie

Global advisor Early Action and Research

German Red Cross

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