Science and Research

Linking science, policy and practice are fundamental elements of Anticipatory Action. The evaluation of climate and social science are at the core of the design, set up and implementation of Anticipatory Action. In this section you will find information related to Anticipatory Action scientific research projects, peer reviewed academic papers available in academic journals, and research reports, including working papers and other research materials.  Research material cover a diverse range of topics from climate and weather forecasting, scalability, social protection, vulnerability, and exposure, among other crucial topics.

Find the latest academic publications:

Blog May 16, 2024

Early Action, Lessons Learnt

The first official anticipatory action activation in Burundi

Extreme rainfall events and flooding are devastating hazards in Burundi. In October 2023, extreme rainfall was forecast for the country, leading to the the first anticipatory action activation. This …

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Blog April 18, 2024

Early Action, Early Warning System, Impact-based Forecasting

AWARE: a digitally enabled governance platform for effective anticipatory action ahead of climate shocks

As the climate crisis worsens, at-risk countries need anticipatory action to cope with the devastating impacts. ClimBeR’s AWARE platform is helping countries including Senegal and Zambia to protect …

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Blog April 15, 2024

Early Warning System, Emerging Topics, Trigger Development

Citizens as hazard forecasters: how citizen science can strengthen anticipatory action

There is a small but growing number of examples of citizen science playing an active role in anticipatory action and early warnings. Can - and should - it play a greater role in the data used for …

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Blog April 08, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Social Protection

Linking Nepal’s social protection programmes with anticipatory action

Nepal has a diverse portfolio of social protection programmes and humanitarian organizations are finding creative ways to use these for anticipatory action and disaster-response activities.

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Blog March 28, 2024

Lessons Learnt, Locally led, Trigger Development

How P-FIM adds value to developing protocols for anticipatory action

In the second of a two-part blog, Welthungerhilfe explains how the People First Impact Method, known as P-FIM, contributes to ensuring that protocols for anticipatory action are developed through a …

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Blog March 23, 2024

Other

A new head for the Anticipation Hub

Alessandra Gilotta recently assumed the role of head of the Anticipation Hub. In this interview, she tells us a little about her experience in the humanitarian sector and her ambitions for this new …

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Blog March 19, 2024

Early Action, Lessons Learnt, Trigger Development

Integrating anticipatory action into contingency plans: lessons from Somaliland

The Somali Red Crescent Society recently developed a contingency plan that integrated anticipatory action. This blog shares some of the lessons and challenges from this process.

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Blog March 07, 2024

Reflecting on the journey: a farewell message from the Head of the Anticipation Hub

A farewell message from Kara Siahaan, Head of the Anticipation Hub, who is leaving the Anticipation Hub after building and shaping the initiative for the last three years.

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Blog March 06, 2024

Locally led

Community-driven early action protocols: how P-FIM is unlocking locally led anticipatory action in Zimbabwe

Placing local people’s perspectives and ideas at the centre of anticipatory action ensures they have ownership of this approach, and that the systems built are effective and relevant to local …

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Blog February 06, 2024

Earth Observation, GIS & Mapping, Impact-based Forecasting, Science

Artificial intelligence and anticipatory action: a conversation – part 2

In the second half of this two-part blog, Karen Dall and Vitus Benson continue their conversation about the potential uses of AI for anticipatory action, and the challenges this might bring.

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet April 24, 2024

Locally led

The benefits and importance of locally led anticipatory action

This briefing, written by the Locally Led Anticipatory Action Working Group, provides examples of the benefits of locally led anticipatory action and explains its importance. It draws on evidence …

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Report April 05, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Social Protection

Linking Nepal's Social Protection Programs with Anticipatory Action

All social protection programmes are shock responsive, as they deal with shocks that negatively affect families and/or individuals. However, most are designed to support households experiencing …

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Briefing Sheet / Fact Sheet March 21, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Social Protection

Linking Nepal’s Social Protection Programs with Anticipatory Action - briefing

All social protection programmes are shock responsive, as they deal with shocks that negatively affect families and/or individuals. However, most are designed to support households experiencing …

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Feasibility Study February 06, 2024

World Vision feasibility study of anticipatory action in Sri Lanka

This feasibility study was conducted in Sri Lanka as part of the Asia Anticipatory Action Project. This initiative, led by World Vision and supported by Aktion Deutschland Hilft, Germany, aims to …

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Feasibility Study February 05, 2024

World Vision feasibility study of anticipatory action in Bangladesh

This feasibility study was conducted in Bangladesh as part of the Asia Anticipatory Action Project. This initiative, led by World Vision and supported by Aktion Deutschland Hilft, Germany, aims to …

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Feasibility Study February 05, 2024

World Vision feasibility study of anticipatory action in Indonesia

This feasibility study was conducted in Indonesia as part of the Asia Anticipatory Action Project. This initiative, led by World Vision and supported by Aktion Deutschland Hilft, Germany, aims to …

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Feasibility Study February 05, 2024

World Vision feasibility study of anticipatory action in Philippines

This feasibility study was conducted in the Philippines as part of the Asia Anticipatory Action Project. This initiative, led by World Vision and supported by Aktion Deutschland Hilft, Germany, aims …

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Report January 18, 2024

Disaster Risk Financing, Evidence, Risk, Scaling up, Trigger Development

Anticipatory Action in Asia and the Pacific: Regional Roadmap 2023–2027

This document presents the five-year vision and roadmap for anticipatory action prepared by the Asia-Pacific Technical Working Group on Anticipatory Action (TWGAA), covering the period 2023–2027. …

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Other January 03, 2024

Early Action, Early Warning System, Health

EAP summary: Honduras - Population Movement

This document summarizes Honduras' Early Action Protocol for Population Movement, setting out the triggers for activating this, the agreed anticipatory actions, and the pre-agreed financing.

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Other December 22, 2023

Health, WASH

Gabon: anticipatory action for Marburg - update

This document provides an update on the actions taken following the DREF allocation for anticipatory action to tackle the impacts of the Marburg virus in Gabon during 2023.

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Who is doing research on Anticipatory Action?

Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC): The Met Office is working in partnership with the World Bank and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) on the UK aid funded ARRCC programme. The four-year programme, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The programme will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks, including Impact based Forecasting for Early Action in Bangladesh and Nepal.

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Forecast for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (FATHUM) researchers are linking together research on forecast predictability and skill, complex drivers of risk, multi-actor perspectives on successful implementation and financing mechanisms to catalyse and facilitate the scale-up of Forecast-based Financing (FbF) for effective, appropriate and impactful action before a disaster.

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Exploring options for forecast-based early action in the Eastern Caribbean:  The Caribbean is highly exposed to extreme weather and climate events including drought, tropical cyclones and flooding.  When an extreme event is forecast, action taken before the event occurs can significantly reduce losses, damage and suffering. Caribbean governments and their partners are already taking early action; however, there is potential to strengthen these interventions.

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Towards Forecast based Preparedness Action (ForPAC) is a ‘research to action’ project seeking to provide advanced forecast products and information platforms to project partners in Kenya in order to advance a move towards forecast-based action for flood and drought hazards. The goal is to strengthen resilience to climate-related risks and reduce the impacts of these risks on the lives and livelihoods of those who are mostly vulnerable communities in Kenya.

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NASA Towards A Global Flood & Flash Flood Early Warning Early Action System Driven by NASA Earth Observations and Hydrologic Models

In the current state, disaster management organizations in developing countries are not preparing sufficiently for flash floods. This initiative aims to enhance disaster manager capacity to better prepare, respond and recover to flooding events.

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The PICSEA project results contain communication and training material for weather forecasters, tropical meteorologists and humanitarians. 

This includes a  selection of stimulating videos, animations, audio and mapping of tropical cyclones.

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Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) is undertaking innovative research in the most hazard-prone parts of the world to better understand and predict disasters and minimise the risk they pose to vulnerable communities.

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The Academic Alliance on Anticipatory Action (4As, or “Straight As”) is working to build the evidence base on Anticipatory Action through a combination of impact evaluations of real-time anticipatory action and research to improve the development of anticipatory action programs and identify the most effective ways to help the most vulnerable people before a crisis pushes them further into life-threatening situations. 4As is a consortium of universities from around the world supported by the United States Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA).

Is your project missing?

If you would like to add your own project, please contact Dorothy Heinrich with the following information: Name of the project, 50-word description, focal person and contact information, and website link.

The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap

To move forward with the ambitious agenda of scaling up anticipatory action, there are a number of critical research questions remaining. Addressing these policy, strategic and operational gaps can support practitioners and scientists to develop sustainable, effective, and people-centred anticipatory action systems at scale. The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap identifies five goals for the success of FbF at the top and lists critical research questions that need to be addressed to help achieve these goals. The priority research questions identified, and related to incentives of different actors should inform the investment and design of anticipatory action systems in the future. It is important to note that interdisciplinary research involves practitioners in the design and analysis is critical for uptake and what we research is only as important as how we research it.

Find and contribute to the Research Roadmap here

Emerging topics

In expanding the use of anticipatory action to address more risks, be applicable in more contexts and strengthen overall disaster risk financing approaches, experts and practitioners are engaging in multi-disciplinary collaboration to enable anticipatory action to be applied where and when it is needed using adapted tools, innovative solutions and new ways of working.

More about emerging topics

Do you have a question?

Erin Coughlan

Manager Science Team

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Dorothy Heinrich

Technical Advisor

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Liz Stephens

Science Lead

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Arielle Tozier de la Poterie

Global advisor Early Action and Research

German Red Cross

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