Science and Research

Linking science, policy and practice are fundamental elements of Anticipatory Action. The evaluation of climate and social science are at the core of the design, set up and implementation of Anticipatory Action. In this section you will find information related to Anticipatory Action scientific research projects, peer reviewed academic papers available in academic journals, and research reports, including working papers and other research materials.  Research material cover a diverse range of topics from climate and weather forecasting, scalability, social protection, vulnerability, and exposure, among other crucial topics.

Find the latest academic publications:

Blog March 07, 2024

Reflecting on the journey: a farewell message from the Head of the Anticipation Hub

A farewell message from Kara Siahaan, Head of the Anticipation Hub, who is leaving the Anticipation Hub after building and shaping the initiative for the last three years.

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Blog March 06, 2024

Locally led

Community-driven early action protocols: how P-FIM is unlocking locally led anticipatory action in Zimbabwe

Placing local people’s perspectives and ideas at the centre of anticipatory action ensures they have ownership of this approach, and that the systems built are effective and relevant to local …

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Blog February 06, 2024

Earth Observation, GIS & Mapping, Impact-based Forecasting, Science

Artificial intelligence and anticipatory action: a conversation – part 2

In the second half of this two-part blog, Karen Dall and Vitus Benson continue their conversation about the potential uses of AI for anticipatory action, and the challenges this might bring.

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Blog February 02, 2024

Cash & Voucher, Conflict, Evidence, Food Insecurity, Lessons Learnt

Examining the role of anticipatory action in complex crises

Many people today experience myriad overlapping hazards and challenges. Given this reality, there is a need to better understand how anticipatory action fits within the context of these complex …

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Blog January 22, 2024

Early Action, Gender & Inclusion

Empowering children for a resilient future with free resources: the Disaster Books series

Discussing the complex challenges posed by climate change with children is challenging. This is where the COPE Disaster series can help - by supporting children to understand hazards and disasters …

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Blog December 15, 2023

Conflict, Emerging Topics

Reconciling humanitarian principles with anticipatory action ahead of conflict in Kenya and Nigeria

As anticipatory action grows, there is a pressing need to assess, interpret and contextualize its ethical challenges, especially in terms of adhering to the four humanitarian principles. What is at …

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Blog November 29, 2023

Disaster Risk Financing, Lessons Learnt

Uncovering the gaps: analysis of disaster-risk financial flows in Kenya from 2016 to 2022

Recent research shows that Kenya’s disaster risk management architecture is well established. But what is the bigger picture regarding overall financial flows for disasters - and are we financing …

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Blog November 24, 2023

Cash & Voucher, Early Action, Early Warning System, Food Insecurity, Social Protection

Anticipating drought in Timor-Leste

In October 2023, FAO Timor-Leste activated its Anticipatory Action Protocol for Agricultural Drought related to the El Niño phenomenon. In this blog, Edward Parkinson shares some background on the …

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Blog November 13, 2023

Early Warning System, Earth Observation, Evidence, Future leaders, Impact-based Forecasting, Science

Registro y catalogación de amenazas y sus impactos: balances, retos y perspectivas

Recientemente, ha crecido el interés por registrar no sólo la escala de los fenómenos meteorológicos de gran impacto, sino también sus repercusiones geográficas y sus consecuencias en la dinámica …

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Blog November 13, 2023

Early Warning System, Earth Observation, Future leaders, Impact-based Forecasting, Science

Recording and cataloguing hazards and their impacts: balances, challenges and perspectives

Recently, there has been growing interest in recording not only the scale of high-impact meteorological events, but also their geographical impacts and consequences on social dynamics. During a …

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Feasibility Study February 06, 2024

World Vision feasibility study of anticipatory action in Sri Lanka

This feasibility study was conducted in Sri Lanka as part of the Asia Anticipatory Action Project. This initiative, led by World Vision and supported by Aktion Deutschland Hilft, Germany, aims to …

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Feasibility Study February 05, 2024

World Vision feasibility study of anticipatory action in Bangladesh

This feasibility study was conducted in Bangladesh as part of the Asia Anticipatory Action Project. This initiative, led by World Vision and supported by Aktion Deutschland Hilft, Germany, aims to …

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Feasibility Study February 05, 2024

World Vision feasibility study of anticipatory action in Indonesia

This feasibility study was conducted in Indonesia as part of the Asia Anticipatory Action Project. This initiative, led by World Vision and supported by Aktion Deutschland Hilft, Germany, aims to …

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Feasibility Study February 05, 2024

World Vision feasibility study of anticipatory action in Philippines

This feasibility study was conducted in the Philippines as part of the Asia Anticipatory Action Project. This initiative, led by World Vision and supported by Aktion Deutschland Hilft, Germany, aims …

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Report January 18, 2024

Disaster Risk Financing, Evidence, Risk, Scaling up, Trigger Development

Anticipatory Action in Asia and the Pacific: Regional Roadmap 2023–2027

This document presents the five-year vision and roadmap for anticipatory action prepared by the Asia-Pacific Technical Working Group on Anticipatory Action (TWGAA), covering the period 2023–2027. …

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Other January 03, 2024

Early Action, Early Warning System, Health

EAP summary: Honduras - Population Movement

This document summarizes Honduras' Early Action Protocol for Population Movement, setting out the triggers for activating this, the agreed anticipatory actions, and the pre-agreed financing.

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Other December 22, 2023

Health, WASH

Gabon: anticipatory action for Marburg - update

This document provides an update on the actions taken following the DREF allocation for anticipatory action to tackle the impacts of the Marburg virus in Gabon during 2023.

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Other December 22, 2023

Early Action, Health, WASH

Cameroon: anticipatory action for Marburg - update

This document provides an update on the actions taken following the DREF allocation for anticipatory action to tackle the impacts of the Marburg virus in Cameroon during 2023.

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Research Report December 21, 2023

Anticipatory Action in Complex Crises: Lessons from Ethiopia

This study examines how anticipatory action was perceived and experienced among Ethiopians living with drought alongside other crises. These include the 2020–22 conflict in Tigray, local conflicts …

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Other December 14, 2023

Advocacy, Scaling up

IGAD Regional Roadmap for Anticipatory Action

Humanitarian needs and losses and damages from various hazards are rising in the eastern Africa region. While multiple anticipatory action initiatives are ongoing in the region, these are …

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Who is doing research on Anticipatory Action?

Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC): The Met Office is working in partnership with the World Bank and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) on the UK aid funded ARRCC programme. The four-year programme, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The programme will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks, including Impact based Forecasting for Early Action in Bangladesh and Nepal.

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Forecast for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (FATHUM) researchers are linking together research on forecast predictability and skill, complex drivers of risk, multi-actor perspectives on successful implementation and financing mechanisms to catalyse and facilitate the scale-up of Forecast-based Financing (FbF) for effective, appropriate and impactful action before a disaster.

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Exploring options for forecast-based early action in the Eastern Caribbean:  The Caribbean is highly exposed to extreme weather and climate events including drought, tropical cyclones and flooding.  When an extreme event is forecast, action taken before the event occurs can significantly reduce losses, damage and suffering. Caribbean governments and their partners are already taking early action; however, there is potential to strengthen these interventions.

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Towards Forecast based Preparedness Action (ForPAC) is a ‘research to action’ project seeking to provide advanced forecast products and information platforms to project partners in Kenya in order to advance a move towards forecast-based action for flood and drought hazards. The goal is to strengthen resilience to climate-related risks and reduce the impacts of these risks on the lives and livelihoods of those who are mostly vulnerable communities in Kenya.

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NASA Towards A Global Flood & Flash Flood Early Warning Early Action System Driven by NASA Earth Observations and Hydrologic Models

In the current state, disaster management organizations in developing countries are not preparing sufficiently for flash floods. This initiative aims to enhance disaster manager capacity to better prepare, respond and recover to flooding events.

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The PICSEA project results contain communication and training material for weather forecasters, tropical meteorologists and humanitarians. 

This includes a  selection of stimulating videos, animations, audio and mapping of tropical cyclones.

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Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) is undertaking innovative research in the most hazard-prone parts of the world to better understand and predict disasters and minimise the risk they pose to vulnerable communities.

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The Academic Alliance on Anticipatory Action (4As, or “Straight As”) is working to build the evidence base on Anticipatory Action through a combination of impact evaluations of real-time anticipatory action and research to improve the development of anticipatory action programs and identify the most effective ways to help the most vulnerable people before a crisis pushes them further into life-threatening situations. 4As is a consortium of universities from around the world supported by the United States Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA).

Is your project missing?

If you would like to add your own project, please contact Dorothy Heinrich with the following information: Name of the project, 50-word description, focal person and contact information, and website link.

The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap

To move forward with the ambitious agenda of scaling up anticipatory action, there are a number of critical research questions remaining. Addressing these policy, strategic and operational gaps can support practitioners and scientists to develop sustainable, effective, and people-centred anticipatory action systems at scale. The Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap identifies five goals for the success of FbF at the top and lists critical research questions that need to be addressed to help achieve these goals. The priority research questions identified, and related to incentives of different actors should inform the investment and design of anticipatory action systems in the future. It is important to note that interdisciplinary research involves practitioners in the design and analysis is critical for uptake and what we research is only as important as how we research it.

Find and contribute to the Research Roadmap here

Emerging topics

In expanding the use of anticipatory action to address more risks, be applicable in more contexts and strengthen overall disaster risk financing approaches, experts and practitioners are engaging in multi-disciplinary collaboration to enable anticipatory action to be applied where and when it is needed using adapted tools, innovative solutions and new ways of working.

More about emerging topics

Do you have a question?

Erin Coughlan

Manager Science Team

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Dorothy Heinrich

Technical Advisor

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Liz Stephens

Science Lead

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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Arielle Tozier de la Poterie

Global advisor Early Action and Research

German Red Cross

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