AWARE: a digitally enabled governance platform for effective anticipatory action ahead of climate shocks

As the climate crises worsens, extreme weather events are becoming increasingly more frequent and variable. This exacerbates the risks facing people in climate-vulnerable low- and middle-income countries.

Consider Zambia, one of six countries where the CGIAR Research Initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR) is working to transform the adaptive capacity of land, water and food systems. According to EM-DAT, over the last three decades droughts and floods have cost Zambia more than US$13.8 billion – the equivalent of 4 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) – with an estimated US$4.8 billion in lost GDP predicted in the next decade if no actions are taken to address climate impacts.

Now, more than ever, countries such as Zambia need anticipatory action to cope better with the devastation that increasing climate variability brings. While early warning systems are effective, to fully inform disaster-risk-reduction interventions they require effective coordination and early action protocols that function across multiple levels of governance, from local to national levels. They also require pre-arranged financing to ensure timely actions to support communities’ needs ahead of an impending hazard.

To bring these elements together, ClimBeR launched the AWARE platform in Senegal and Zambia in 2023, following an earlier rollout of an anticipatory action simulation in Sri Lanka in July 2023.

From early warnings to anticipatory actions

President Hakainde Hichilema recently declared a state of emergency in Zambia as prolonged drought, brought on by El Niño, disrupted the country’s food supply. In 2024, the country is likely to experience severe economic disruptions due to the drought’s impacts on millions of livelihoods.

The AWARE platform can support governments and development partners ahead of crises such as this, helping them to translate early warnings into concrete anticipatory actions that mitigate a hazard’s impacts. It provides tools for identifying the risks facing communities, and for developing plans to mitigate these risks. For example, it provides forecast information for particular hazards, such as probability forecasts for precipitation (see the image to the right).

Support to identify sources of early financing

According to research from the Centre for Disaster Protection, the poorest and most vulnerable countries do not benefit enough from pre-arranged financing to better cope with disasters: between 2017and 2021, only US$200 million – less than 4 per cent of the international development financing that is pre-arranged – reached low-income countries. These countries often face challenges in accessing other sources of international financing as well, as existing high levels of debt make repayment difficult. By integrating local information, the AWARE platform can help to establish the financing needs that countries or regions have for climate-related hazards.

Many stakeholders, one platform

The AWARE platform promotes multi-level coordination and collaboration by bringing together a wide spectrum of stakeholders, including government officials, emergency response managers, humanitarian organizations, and the local communities who are actually at risk. It connects data providers, such as meteorological agencies and hydrological centres, with data users (e.g., humanitarian organizations) to improve disaster risk governance.

“We need AWARE because we recognize that climate change and disaster risks are realities we cannot ignore,” says Gabriel Pollen, the national coordinator of the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit in Zambia. “Most importantly, we need AWARE because we understand that timely action can save lives, protect livelihoods, and safeguard our environment. The AWARE platform is also in line with global target of the Sendai Framework, [which aims] to substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030.”