Anticipatory Action Research Roadmap

To move forward with the ambitious agenda of scaling up anticipatory action, there are a number of critical research questions remaining. Addressing these policy, strategic and operational gaps can support practitioners and scientists to develop sustainable, effective, and people-centred anticipatory action systems at scale. However, WHAT we research is only as important as HOW we research it. Interdisciplinary research that involves practitioners in the design and analysis is critical for uptake. The following roadmap identifies five goals for the success of FbF and lists critical research questions that need to be addressed to help achieve these goals.

  1. How well do existing local and global forecasts predict extreme events?
  2. How can forecast systems improve their ability to predict extreme events?
  3. How can data improvements improve forecast evaluation and forecast skill?
  4. What are the roles of different forecasting groups?
  1. How can vulnerability/exposure data and tools identify people at greatest risk
  2. What is the relationship between hazard magnitude and impact in different places
  3. What FbF targeting strategies ensure accountability and transparency, especially to the population at risk
  4. How can the use of data and risk-based targeting ensure a focus on the most vulnerable, not only the areas with greatest data?
  1. How can financing mechanisms manage disbursements at short lead-times?
  2. How can FbF leverage and/or complement other financing tools to best serve the most vulnerable?
  3. What is the most effective mixture of investment in long-term DRR/CCA, FbF systems, DRF, and disaster response funding for different situations?
  4. How can resources at local level to global level complement each other in funding different scales/magnitudes/frequencies of early action?
  1. How can success be measured?
  2. Which actions reduce disaster impacts in which contexts?
  3. How can nesting/sequencing triggers at different timescales improve outcomes?
  4. What are the implications of acting “in vain”?
  1. How can actors coordinate effectively on FbF to avoid duplication and best support the most vulnerable?
  2. What legal, policy, and strategy decisions enable governments to establish FbF systems at scale?
  3. What are the long-term benefits of FbF in terms of organizational development and strengthening institutions?
  4. What does scale mean for different actors?

Find the original version of the roadmap here!

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