Catalogue of Early Warning tools for Anticipating the impact of conflict

The number of Early Warning tools for anticipating the impacts of conflict and violence is growing rapidly. Methods range from qualitative, crowd-sourced data, news scraping, to advanced AI and machine learning models to predict when conflict might be likely to escalate, sometimes compounded by climate hazards. That is why the Climate Centre, together with ACAPS, put together this living catalogue of early warning tools and methodologies to keep track of the various approaches to predictive action developed and utilized by actors across the sector. 

Many of these tools were presented at the Early Warning Early Action Workshop hosted by the NYU Center on International Cooperation on May 18 – May 20, 2021. The Humanitarian Data Exchange also hosts a catalogue of predictive models that is regularly updated and complements the list presented here. ACLED’s Early Warning Research Hub is another great resource for applied models to predict and prevent violence. A new initiative, called the Complex Risk Analytics Fund (CRAF’d), spearheaded by the UN, and supported by Germany and the United Kingdom, is looking to scale up investments into data and analytics needed to better anticipate, prevent, and respond to complex risks before they become crises. 

These tools all share a common objective to inform decisions that can reduce the worst impacts of conflict. For more info, join the Anticipatory Action in Conflict working group

Tools/ Methodologies

Developed by

UNEP, Earth Blox, University of Edinburgh

Subject

Compound hazards (climate and conflict)

Predicts

Impacts on peace and security, development, and resilience due to climate stressors

Type of AA *

Type 1

Coverage

Pilot phase in Somalia

Description

Provide easy to digest multi-layer risk analysis of climate and social risk factors that do not require technical expertise to use. The tool is GIS based and provides a map of multi-layer risk with further datial on specific risks, strategies and solutions for identified hotspots on the map

Methods

GIS

Contact

Marie Schellens, UNEP

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)

Developed by

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Subject

Conflict

Predicts

Security risks to sustainable development from impacts of climate change

Type of AA *

Type 1

Coverage

Global, methodology is scalable

Description

Global climate and security risk and foresight assessment.

Methods

Multidisciplinary project based on quantitative assessments and impact modeling and qualitative approaches with a stakeholder focus

Contact

Barbora Sedova

Links

Learn more here.

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)

Developed by

German Foreign Office - PREVIEW

Subject

Conflict

Predicts

Conflict due to anumber of climate and social factors in order to provide the information to take early action

Type of AA *

Type 1

Coverage

German operational presence in Lake Chad basin

Description

Data-driven solutions for proactive capacity building for early action in anticipation of conflict

Methods

Compound risk analysis

Contact

Nicole Manger

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)

Developed by

PACT Ethiopia

Subject

Conflict

Predicts

Community violence

Type of AA *

Type 2

Coverage

Ethiopia

Description

Improving existing EWEA systems in Ethiopia. Based on close collaboration with the community to source and verify data on incidents and signals. Designed to improve Rapid Response actions to conflict through a network of relevant partnerships. The steering comittee includes memers from civil society, communities, religious leaders, administration, police representatives, state and non-state actors

Methods

Qualitative, community-based

Contact

E-mail: info@pactworld.org

Links

Learn more here

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)

Developed by

ACLED

Subject

Conflict

Predicts

Violence trends

Type of AA *

Type 2

Coverage

Worldwide

Description

ACLED's strategy to collect accurate, local data on conflict events relies on innovative partnerships with local organizations and associations

Methods

News sourcing and verification

Contact

Roudabeh Kishi - Director of Research and Innovation

Links

Learn more here.

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)

Developed by

Hala Systems

Subject

Conflict

Predicts

Violent events

Type of AA *

Type 2

Coverage

Syria

Description

Sentry AI is an indication and warning system that utilizes a multi-sensor network to generate a credible, real-time, situational awareness of threats in the toughest places on earth. Sentry uses artificial intelligence (AI) to instantaneously validate information from multiple sources, allowing stakeholders to detect, identify, and predict threats.

Methods

AI, machine learning, remote sensing

Contact

Daniel Henebery
E-Mail:  info@halasystems.com

Links

Learn more here.

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)

Developed by

Sentinel Project

Subject

Conflict

Predicts

Violence based on misinformation

Type of AA *

Type 2

Coverage

Worldwide

Description

Crowdsourcing rumours, mapping their spread, verifying information and returning information back to the community in order to analyze the spread of misinformation and take early action to prevent atrocities like genocide.

Methods

Direct cooperation with communitie s- innovative use of technology - needs drivien

Contact

Christopher Tuckwood
E-mail: chris@thesentinelproject.org

 Yuriko Coper-Smith
 E-Mail: yuriko@thesentinelproject.org

Links

Learn more here

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)

Developed by

Hatebase

Subject

Conflict

Predicts

Violence base on hate speech and misinformation

Type of AA *

Type 2

Coverage

Worldwide

Description

Multilingual database of online hate speech and misinformation

Methods

AI and machine learning methods to identify hatespeech and misinformation, while engaging communities directly to address increasing trends proactively

Contact

View contact form here.

Links

Learn more here

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)

Developed by

World Resources Institute

Subject

Conflict

Predicts

Violence based on water-related security risks

Type of AA *

Type 1

Coverage

Worldwide

Description

The Water, Peace and Security (WPS) Partnership was founded in 2018 to pioneer the development of innovative tools that identify and address water-related security risks. The overall objective of the Water, Peace and Security partnership is to offer a platform where actors from the global defense, development, diplomacy, and disaster relief sectors (among others) and national governments of developing countries can identify conflict hotspots before violence erupts, begin to understand the local context, and prioritize opportunities for water interventions.

Methods

Machine learning-based methodology to forecast conflict (defined as organized violence resulting in at least 10 fatalities over a 12 month period), up to a year in advance using a random forest model. When applied to reserved test data, the model captures 86% of future conflicts.

Contact

E-mail: info@waterpeacesecurity.org

Links

Learn more here.

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)

Developed by

ConflictForecast.org

Subject

Conflict

Predicts

Identify countries at risk of conflict in order to determine where early action can be taken to prevent it

Type of AA *

Type 2

Coverage

Worldwide

Description

Conflict forecast provides forecasts for outbreaks of political violence and escalations into internal armed conflict. Our method based on five years of academic research and exploits millions of newspaper articles through automated summaries.

Methods

2-step machine learning method using aggregated news data from multiple sources

Contact

Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh

E-mail: conflictforecast@gmail.com

Links

Learn more here.

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)

Developed by

UN University

Subject

Conflict

Predicts

Identify factors that put people, especially children, at risk of recruitment into armed groups

Type of AA *

Type 2

Description

MEAC seeks to understand how and why individuals exit armed groups and which interventions support full and sustained transitions to civilian life. It collects data on all aspects of an individuals association with an armed group, including on the nature of their recruitment

Methods

Qualitative

Contact

Siobhan O'Neil
E-mail: oneil@unu.edu

Links

Learn more here.

 

*Type of AA (1 or 2 - 1 corresponds to AA for climate related disasters in conflict contexts, while type 2 corresponds to AA of impacts of conflict)