Forecast-based financing in Sudan: anticipation instead of reaction

Sudan faces climate risks, recurrent extreme weather events such as floods and droughts, and high levels of poverty and vulnerability among the population. In these conditions, the introduction of forecast-based financing has great potential to alleviate suffering. This three-year project aims to strengthen the disaster preparedness and capacities of the Sudanese Red Crescent through implementing forecast-based financing and, ultimately, to minimize the humanitarian impacts of hazards. It will expand humanitarian aid in Sudan to include anticipatory action and thus achieve a shift from mainly reactive, ad hoc measures after a disaster occurs, to comprehensive and tested anticipatory actions.

Key facts

Start/end date     

November 2021 -  December 2024

Hazards covered    

Floods (riverine)

Regions covered    

Nile River Basin

Early action sectors     

To be confirmed

Anticipatory action protocols/plans in place    

Early Action Protocol for Flood (under development)


None to date

Population reached during activations

To be confirmed

Key actors/implementing partners   

Sudanese Red Crescent | German Red Cross | Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre | IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Centre | Sudan Meteorological Authority | Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources | National Council for Civil Defense | Humanitarian Aid Commission | Remote Sensing Authority | World Food Programme | Save the Children

Project description

The project aims to expand humanitarian aid in Sudan to include anticipatory action and enable the Sudanese Red Crescent to improve its capacity to implement early (anticipatory) actions in high-risk areas. Enhancing the Sudanese Red Crescent's capacities aims to help communities prepare and protect themselves and their livelihoods before an extreme event or other type of crisis. The project has four key result areas:

  1. Develop an early action protocol (EAP)
  2. Test, activate and evaluate the EAP
  3. Strengthen the capacities of the Sudanese Red Crescent and national/local actors in forecast-based financing
  4. Establish the forecast-based financing concept among national authorities and partners through its integration in their disaster risk management and contingency plans.

Due to the current situation, project activities in Sudan cannot be carried out on site as planned and have therefore been paused for the time being. Work on improved forecasting for extreme weather events and early warning protocols will continue remotely as far as possible (as of June 2023).

Outcomes and lessons learned

Training and orientation in riverine flooding

In March 2023, the Sudanese Red Crescent and the German Red Cross, conducted national-level orientation and training on forecast-based financing. This two-day event, which was attended by volunteers and staff from state branches and the Sudanese Red Crescent headquarters, covered subjects including risk assessments and data collection for riverine floods.

The training aimed to harmonize the understanding of both staff and volunteers on the scope, objectives, methods and tools required to conduct a risk assessment for riverine floods across the River Nile Basin, and eventually to develop an early action protocol - a detailed plan to guide the implementation of anticipatory action – for this hazard.

This project is supported financially by the Deutsche Bank Stiftung.


Anita Auerbach

Cash-based Early Action and Social Protection, German Red Cross

Dr David MacLeod

Climate scientist

Implementing organizations

Sudanese Red Crescent Society

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German Red Cross

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Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

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IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

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World Food Programme

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Supported by

Deutsche Bank Stiftung

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