• Armed Conflict

Anticipatory Action in Conflict Practitioners' Group

Anticipatory Action in Conflict Practitioners' Group

Adapting to climate change is pivotal for people whose vulnerability has been increased by armed conflict. People affected by conflict are highly susceptible to suffer disproportionately from climate and weather-related hazards (ICRC 2020). To address this, disaster risk reduction in these complex contexts is a crucial part of the process to reduce disaster impacts. As part of these efforts, anticipatory action can help to protect people’s lives, livelihoods, and wellbeing in the face of predictable hazards.

Yet, at the moment, most anticipatory action programming is happening in non-conflict situations and recently started in few countries or regions affected by conflict. For anticipatory action to flourish and to be effective to protect people affected by armed conflict, there is a need to understand the impacts of compounding risks and the complex dynamics that armed conflict generates which could jeopardize the design and implementation of anticipatory action. It is also essential to understand how conflict sensitivity can be applied to anticipatory action, in order to follow the principles of do no harm and ensure that anticipatory action does not contribute to any existing tensions in a given context.

The Anticipatory Action in Conflict Practitioners' Group brings together practitioners and researchers working on developing further the understanding of how anticipatory action could be designed and implemented effectively in situations of conflict to reach the most vulnerable population.

Building on the recently published working paper (Wagner and Jaime 2020) by the Climate Centre and GPPi, the group could distinguish two tracks for the discussions: 

  1. FbA based on forecasts of hydro-meteorological hazards in conflict situations (i.e., to act early in anticipation of climate-related hazards in situations of ongoing conflict); and 
  2. FbA based on forecasts of humanitarian consequences of conflict (i.e., food security and displacement)

This group consists of an internal Red Cross Red Crescent-focused working group and an external working group with humanitarian partners and relevant expert communities:

  • The internal group focuses on specific methodologies, tools and mechanisms that could be used by Red Cross Red Crescent partners in situations of conflict, such as early action protocols and forecast-based financing by the DREF. 
  • The aim of the external group is to provide a platform for mutual technical exchange and learning on different approaches and methodologies for anticipatory action in conflict situations. It could serve to align efforts, capacities and resources and as a  technical sounding board considering input from expert communities like in the area of displacement and conflict analysis.

Please get in contact with the co-leads below for up-to-date information about upcoming meetings. 

Membership:

Information on how to join the working group and how participation in the working group works.

Co-leads:

    FAO and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

    Kim Kristensen

    Catalina Jaime

    Tesse de Boer

    Juliane Schillinger

    Contact:

    conflict-working-group@anticipation-hub.org

    Additional resources related to conflict and anticipatory action

    Toolkit for anticipatory action in fragile, conflict- and violence-affected settings

    This toolkit brings together hands-on resources to support practitioners in implementing conflict-sensitive, effective, and sustainable anticipatory action in FCV contexts.

    Download file

    Anticipatory action in and for conflict-affected settings

    As anticipatory action is increasingly implemented in multi-risk environments, in which conflict and other hazards overlap and conflict plays an important role in driving risks, there is a pressing need to consider how conflict and its impacts …

    Download file

    Examining the role of anticipatory action in complex crises

    Many people today experience myriad overlapping hazards and challenges. Given this reality, there is a need to better understand how anticipatory action fits within the context of these complex crises. This blog shares some perspectives from people…

    Learn more

    Multi-hazard risk analysis methodologies

    This study is conducted in collaboration with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and 510. A study into multi-hazard risk methodologies has been conducted as part of a project commissioned by the World Bank to identify Drivers of Climate and…

    Learn more

    Anticipatory action in refugee and IDP camps: challenges, opportunities and considerations

    In the past decade, the number of climate disasters and people displaced by conflict has risen globally, illustrating a pressing need to better understand how already displaced people are impacted by climate disasters. Drawing on case studies from …

    Download file

    The Tumerington exercise

    The Tumerington case is a role play designed to foster creative thinking around the opportunities and challenges for designing an Anticipatory Action plan in a conflict-affected context.

    Learn more

    Community conversation #18 Connecting the COP28 Peace Declaration to Anticipatory Action

    In this community conversation Catalina Jaime and Helena de Jong discussed the relevance of the Peace Declaration for the ongoing efforts to scale up anticipatory action in fragile and conflict settings, explore new opportunities related to the Peace …

    Learn more

    An Agenda for Expanding Forecast-based Action to Situations of Conflict

    Forecast-based humanitarian action enables actors to start their work before a predicted disaster strikes. This can prevent the loss of many more lives and livelihoods than purely reactive humanitarian action ever could. However, to increase the …

    Download file

    Resource page on conflict by the Climate Centre

    The Climate Centre is advancing practice, policy and research on the intersection of climate and conflict, by supporting the ICRC to integrate climate risk into its operations globally, including capacity building, a dedicated help desk, research and …

    Learn more

    Anticipatory Action in Conflict Settings: A Hands-on Introduction

    On this page you will be introduced to a basic understanding of AA in conflict contexts and explore the limitations and opportunities that come about from applying AA to conflict contexts.

    Learn more

    Photo by James Morgan – Cox’s Bazar 2019