Simulating anticipatory actions ahead of cyclones in Bangladesh

Cyclones are the second-most destructive natural hazard in Bangladesh, after floods. Between 2015 and 2021, they caused damage amounting to 255,382 million Bangladeshi Taka (approx. 2.1 billion US dollars/ 1.9 billion euros) and affected around 370,000 people through illness, injuries and permanent disability. Anticipatory action offers a way to reduce these losses and damages, and, on 2 December 2024, partners in the country organized a simulation exercise to test the new National Early Action Protocol (EAP) for Cyclone in Bangladesh.

The simulation took place at the Badurtola cyclone shelter in Patharghata Upazila, Barguna District. The main objective was to test the efficiency and effectiveness of the anticipatory actions outlined in the National EAP, using a real-time scenario that involved both community members and relevant stakeholders. The exercise was also an opportunity to:

• identify any challenges with the actions before they are implemented ahead of an actual cyclone
• test the coordination mechanisms among the different stakeholders
• test the dissemination of early warnings using both text (SMS) and voice messages
• test the mechanisms for triggering the National EAP
• increase awareness of anticipatory action among coastal communities.

Around 200 people from the community surrounding the cyclone shelter took part, as well as local volunteers from the Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP), the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS), the Cyclone Shelter Management Committee and the Union Disaster Management Committee. Each group performed their roles and responsibilities as outlined in the National EAP for Cyclones.

Anticipating cyclones: a multi-phase process       

Simulations need to reflect reality closely to be effective. The exercise was therefore divided into the four phases that are set out in the National EAP.

Phase 1: early detection

This phase is triggered by three signals (01, 02, 03) and the anticipatory actions include:

• technical preparations, with meetings held to ensure all emergency tools (e.g., battery-operated radios and torches) are ready
• community awareness, with volunteers spreading the early signals through word-of-mouth, radio and television updates
• stockpiling and storing necessities such as dry food, safe drinking water, emergency medicine and first aid kits
• activating the emergency helpline and advising communities to call the helpline for updates and assistance.

Phase 2: cyclone formation is confirmed

This phase is triggered by signal 04, between 120 and 96 hours before it is forecast to make landfall. Anticipatory actions include:

• raising the single-warning flag to indicate that a cyclone has formed in the Bay of Bengal
• warning the public through hand-held microphones, megaphones, sirens and voice/SMS messages
• agricultural measures, such as advising farmers to harvest any crops that are ripe and to store them safely.

Phase 3: cyclone intensifies

This phase, triggered by signals 05, 06 and 07, should being 72 to 48 hours before the forecast landfall. Anticipatory actions include:

• raising two warning flags to indicate the cyclone threat
• evacuation support for relocating vulnerable individuals and livestock to shelters
• community awareness on how to secure/strengthen houses, trim trees and protect important documents.

Sector-specific actions also happen during this phase and were tested during the simulation:

• Livestock shelters (killas) were prepared with fodder and water.
• Hygiene kits, water purifiers and waste management plans were implemented at the evacuation shelters for people.
• Fishery ponds were protected, and ripe crops were harvested (as advised during the previous phase).

Phase 4: imminent landfall

The final phase, 36 to 24 hours before landfall, is triggered by signals 08, 09 and 10. The anticipatory actions here include:

• raising three warning flags to indicate an imminent threat from the cyclone
• evacuating communities, along with their livestock and other valuable moveable assets, to cyclone shelters, with provisions for their safety and privacy
• humanitarian assistance in the form of child protection and psychosocial support
• the provision of medical aid, dry food, baby food, fodder for livestock and cash support
• harvesting of crops and fish, through timely updates on when to harvest for farmers.

Lessons learned from the simulation

Early warning systems, anticipatory action and disaster preparedness are all essential for mitigating the losses and damages caused by cyclones. Through simulations such as this, it is possible to refine national-level EAPs and build the resilience of vulnerable communities.

In addition, the simulation highlighted the importance of sectoral integration. While Bangladesh has already achieved ‘zero death rate’ during cyclones, there needs to be collaboration with other sectors to minimize the wider impacts; this includes working with the agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, housing and WASH (water, sanitation and hygiene) sectors. Another lesson was the value of community engagement in anticipatory action, and the simulation demonstrated how local volunteers and local stakeholders play a critical role in this.