Exploring conflict dynamics and anticipatory action in Somalia

In Somalia, the interplay between conflict and climatic shocks has exacerbated people’s vulnerabilities in many regions. The protracted nature and complexity of the conflict has severely affected the Somali population, leading to widespread displacement, food insecurity and the loss of livelihoods for many years. These impacts are compounded when hazards such as drought or floods strike.

A roadmap for implementing anticipatory action in conflict settings

In response to these ongoing challenges, from 4 to 5 December 2024, the Somali Red Crescent Society (SRCS) convened a workshop with Red Cross Red Crescent Movement (the Movement) partners in Nairobi, Kenya, to explore the use of anticipatory action in conflict and fragile settings. The workshop aimed to:

• create a common understanding of the specific requirements of anticipatory action in conflict and fragile settings
• increase awareness of the need for enhanced coordination and information sharing, in all humanitarian responses and across all of Somalia
• develop a roadmap so that the SRCS and its Movement partners are ready to implement anticipatory action in conflict and fragile settings.

Anticipatory action offers significant benefits, such as enhancing community resilience when supporting communities to take actions to protect themselves ahead of a forecast hazard. However, its implementation in fragile countries such as Somalia is not without challenges; for example, limited infrastructure and security/access constraints can hinder certain actions.

Considering such challenges, the workshop participants created a roadmap to improve coordination on anticipatory action within Somalia, to be implemented by the SRCS and supported by Movement partners. This roadmap, which will be published soon, will help to ensure that the SRCS can disseminate early warning information and implement anticipatory actions in conflict-affected communities.

Breaking down the terminology

The workshop was an opportunity for participants to clarify the term ‘anticipatory action’ and its links to disaster preparedness and disaster risk reduction (DRR). Participants agreed that definitions are less important than taking real action: while anticipatory action is a relatively new term in the humanitarian sector, its objectives overlap with preparedness, contingency planning and DRR.

There was also agreement on the need for improved systems and capacities (e.g., for early warnings), for anticipatory action plans to be based on better identification of the main humanitarian threats, and to ensure that humanitarian organizations have the capacity to reduce human suffering in a timely, effective manner, and ideally ahead of a crisis striking.

Strengthening anticipatory action in Somalia

The workshop participants acknowledged that it will take time to build and strengthen anticipatory action systems in Somalia. For the SRCS, one of the next steps will be to strengthen capacity on anticipatory action to ensure that its local and regional branches can act ahead of a forecast crisis and support conflict- and crisis-affected communities throughout Somalia. This will be done with assistance from Movement partners including the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). Planning and implementation will be developed over the coming months, based on the roadmap developed during the workshop.