Partners anticipate the impacts of conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Partners anticipate the impacts of conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Partners have acted to mitigate the humanitarian impacts of armed conflict in Mwenga Territory, South Kivu, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Their objective is to support communities exposed to the conflict and mass displacement – and to do so before the situation spirals into a crisis.

Two non-governmental organizations – Humanitarian Action for Africa (HAA) and the Association of Women for the Promotion and Endogenous Development Historical (AFPDE) – are delivering actions across different sectors:

• Cash transfers worth 90 US dollars per household will help families to preserve their purchasing power and dignity.
• Essential medicines are being supplied to health facilities in Kasika, Kilungutwe and Mwenga, to ensure they are well stocked.
• Hygiene kits are being distributed to 1,000 vulnerable households to help prevent disease outbreaks and improve hygiene conditions among populations affected by displacement and conflict.
• 20 community focal points are being trained to respond to complaints and community feedback about these actions.

Supported by 200,000 British pounds (around 268,000 US dollars/231,000 euros) from Start Network, the partners are supporting around 7,000 people, including 2,107 children and 105 people with disabilities. Those reached also include 511 households displaced by the conflict, as well as 370 at-risk households and 119 families who are hosting displaced people.

Knowing when to act ahead of armed conflict

Unlike anticipatory action ahead of most climate- and weather-related hazards, there was no pre-existing trigger mechanism in place for this activation. Instead, the decision to act was informed by a humanitarian and security impact analysis, conducted by HAA, which identified a high risk of escalating conflict and further displacement in Mwenga Territory.

The analysis combined field data collected by HAA and its partners, displacement trends, humanitarian reports, conflict dynamics, and projections from anticipatory analysis tools. It highlighted worsening insecurity, renewed clashes in Mwenga, increasing population movements, and the likelihood of additional displacement across South Kivu. The analysis also projected that between 30,000 and 48,000 people would displaced under the most likely escalation scenario, reinforcing the need to act.

The findings were further supported by the Start Fund Risk Bulletin in April 2026, which identified the Democratic Republic of the Congo as requiring close monitoring and encouraged Start Network members to consider anticipatory alerts and early actions.