Demystifying anticipatory action for displacement: a menu of operational options

There are over 123 million forcibly displaced people worldwide, who have fled their homes due to persecution, conflict, violence and human rights violations, or events that seriously disturbed public order. Compounding the challenges they face is the fact that many climate disasters occur in countries affected by protracted conflict; elsewhere, people displaced by conflict and persecution end up in neighbouring hazard-prone communities, countries and regions.

Yet although displaced people are often on the frontlines of these ‘polycrises’, they are rarely targeted through anticipatory action. While the United Nations Secretary-General's Action Agenda on Internal Displacement specifically recognizes the potential of anticipatory action to drive solutions to displacement, it is clear that collective action and targeted resources – both financial and technical – are required to deliver on this. The newly formed Working Group on Anticipatory Action for Displacement is helping to address this gap.

While the landscape for anticipatory action and displacement is nascent, with new areas of practice still emerging, it is undoubtedly complex. This blog provides an overview of the situations where anticipatory action and displacement intersect, with useful tools and guidelines listed at the end.

Anticipating displacement

Displacement crises can be approached as a predictable shock, particularly where the drivers of displacement, such as conflict or climate stressors, can be forecast. By using displacement-prediction models, it is possible to act within the critical lead times to reduce displacement caseloads and help people to avoid becoming displaced. The Danish Refugee Council is testing this model through its AHEAD programme, with pilots in seven diverse country contexts.

In 2023, a pilot in Akobo, South Sudan, used machine learning models and community-driven early warning indicators to forecast displacement. This region is affected by cyclical intercommunal violence; when a heightened displacement risk was flagged, the Danish Refugee Council launched anticipatory actions. These included inter-community dialogues that successfully reduced tensions, prevented violence, significantly reduced displacement and supported the faster return of those displaced.

Anticipatory action for people on the move

Displacement forecasts and predicted movement routes can enable assistance to be delivered while people are in transit. By mapping likely displacement trajectories and timelines, actors can pre-position aid and establish mobile or transit-point services such as emergency health care, food distribution and protection support.

Integrating forecasts with real-time monitoring can help to ensure that assistance is delivered to the people most in need. Temporary service hubs, rest points or information centres can be set up along key corridors, while digital tools can provide displaced individuals with information and guidance, or remote services such as family tracing or legal aid.

One example is the Honduran Red Cross’ early action protocol for population movement, which uses consensus-based forecasts to predict displacement crises. When activated, assistance includes printed promotional messages about self-care and health; pre-hospital and psychosocial support kits; and healthcare services delivered via buses. These are put into operation through coordination with local authorities, communities and other humanitarian actors along the potential routes.

It is important to note that anticipatory action for people on the move risks legitimizing displacement through planning for it in advance. This illustrates the importance of nuanced and ongoing discussions about the ethics of anticipatory action and displacement.

Anticipatory action for already displaced populations

Depending on their region of origin, displaced people may face disproportionate risks to climate hazards compared to locals, due to a lack of previous exposure to particular hazards. Limited familiarity with topography and related preventative or risk-mitigation measures may mean that warning signs for extreme events may not be recognized or may be ignored; this underscores the importance of formal, accessible early warning systems. The Istibak (‘Anticipate’ in Arabic) project in Iraq, Syria and Yemen seeks to strengthen early warning systems and anticipatory action for refugees, IDPs, and host populations to address the high climate vulnerability of millions of these populations in the Middle East and North Africa.

Many displaced people, both those living in camps and those in urban areas, often lack decent shelter, reinforcing their vulnerability to extreme weather events. In some refugee camps, for example, durable shelter is prohibited by the host government, leaving humanitarians actors and refugees with no choice but to use inadequate material.

Various anticipatory initiatives with already displaced populations have taken place. In 2024, refugees at Dzaleka Camp in Malawi received funds to prepare for the new agricultural season amid a devastating drought that limited agricultural livelihoods opportunities. In South Sudan, an intervention against flooding, facilitated by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, targeted both IDPs living in the Bentiu camp and non-displaced South Sudanese in and around Bentiu Town, Unity State. These actions were successful in preventing the flooding of Bentiu camp and, as a result, there was no need to relocate the IDPs, which could have risked inciting conflict over contested neighbouring land.

Looking ahead

The situations presented here demonstrate how anticipatory action is a critical yet underused approach for protecting forcibly displaced populations – and for preventing displacement. With displacement rising around the world, the importance of developing and strengthening anticipatory action for forcibly displaced populations has never been greater. Displaced people must be both key recipients of, and stakeholders in, this work to ensure they have access to appropriate and effective anticipatory action, both now and in the future.