Anticipation the Malagasy way: building an early action protocol for cyclones from the ground up

Anticipation the Malagasy way: building an early action protocol for cyclones from the ground up

How do you turn local knowledge into a national system for anticipatory action? In Madagascar, the Malagasy Red Cross Society (Croix-Rouge Malagasy/CRM) and the German Red Cross (GRC) set out to design an early action protocol (EAP) for cyclones, starting where disaster preparedness truly begins: with the people who live with the risk every year.

1. Start from the community

From the beginning, CRM and GRC shared a single guiding principle: the EAP for cyclones had to start where every Red Cross action begins – with the people most at risk. Through an Enhanced Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (EVCA) specifically adapted for anticipatory action, CRM volunteers engaged with communities to understand their experiences with cyclones: their fears and knowledge, and their needs for anticipatory action. These conversations weren’t just about data collection; they formed the foundation of the EAP itself. This people-centred approach ensured that the EAP would be more than a technical tool; it would reflect the realities of communities and their invaluable local knowledge.

2. Choose where to begin: urban populations on the frontline

The EAP’s development was initially linked to a disaster risk reduction (DRR) project in the city of Antananarivo. Building on lessons from the project, the team decided to test the approach in coastal urban areas, which are Madagascar’s most cyclone-prone zones.

Two cities, Mahajanga and Toamasina, were selected for the pilot phase, as both have faced severe cyclones in the past. Within each city, CRM worked with local authorities to identify the most vulnerable fokontany (neighbourhoods), meaning those most affected by flooding, with limited access to public services, and often being the last to receive assistance.

In Mahajanga, on the west coast, the focus fokontany were Fiofio, Mahavoky Avaratra and Tsararano Anosikely; in Toamasina, on the east coast, the focus areas were 11/45 Andranomadio, 23/41 Dépôt Analakininina and 23/44 Dépôt Analakininina. Each site became a ‘living laboratory’ for anticipatory action, testing not only technical triggers for activating the EAP, but also the social mechanisms that make anticipatory action possible.

3. From listening to acting: co-designing anticipatory actions

Once the pilot areas were selected, EVCAs and community workshops helped to identify feasible readiness activities and anticipatory actions. These included preparing evacuation routes, securing roofs, pre-positioning essential items, and ensuring vulnerable households – especially those with elderly people and single mothers – were included in local preparedness networks.

Community-generated vulnerability profiles were then validated with city authorities and relevant national ministries. This participatory approach to validation was important: it anchored local insights within institutional frameworks, helping to ensure that the final EAP would be both legitimate and implementable.

4. Make it work: from experience to a protocol

As the 2024/2025 cyclone season approached, CRM was already integrating anticipatory thinking into its contingency planning, even before the EAP was formally validated. Volunteers carried out actions such as awareness campaigns and disseminating early warnings, while also assisting local authorities in managing evacuation sites and distributing water, sanitation and health (WASH) and shelter kits.

This ‘learning-by-doing’ phase proved essential. The team observed how CRM operated without an approved protocol, capturing lessons on coordination, decision-making and timing.

The trigger methodology was developed and stress-tested through simulations, held with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. In an innovative approach, these considered scenarios with unexpected weather changes or threshold adjustments for activating the EAP. “We believe scenarios hold untapped potential for the design of anticipatory action,” wrote Dorothy Heinrich and Liz Stephens in a blog article about this approach. The simulations also helped to refine operational procedures and adapt decisions to changing forecasts.

5. Validation and next steps

After field validation and consultation with municipal and national partners, the EAP for cyclones was finalized. It now stands as one of the first urban-focused anticipatory action frameworks in southern Africa. Its testing phase coincided with wider national efforts to integrate anticipatory approaches into the Plan National de Contingence (National Contingency Plan) and the Cadre National de l’Action Anticipatoire (National Framework for Anticipatory Action). This helped to ensure that what was learned locally can be scaled up nationally.

Looking ahead, the CRM team, GRC and partners are tackling new operational challenges: pre-positioning stocks, refining triggers with the HeiGIT team through geospatial modelling in QGIS, and developing complementary EAPs for droughts, floods and other prioritized hazards.

6. Testing EAPs activations during the 2025/2026 cyclone season

For CVM, the EAP for cyclones is not only a technical tool; it captures years of partnership and dialogue with, and listening to, communities and authorities. By embedding anticipatory action within the existing ecosystem for DRR and disaster risk management (DRM), Madagascar has shown that anticipatory action is not an external innovation, but a natural evolution of humanitarian and DRM work that is deeply rooted in community trust.

Madagascar has been affected twice so far during the 2025/2026 cyclone season, by tropical cyclones Fytia and Gezani, which struck in January and February 2026 respectively. These hit the same urban locations as those involved in the pilot phase: Mahajanga and Tomasina. Early lessons from the test activations of the EAP revealed both strengths and areas for improvement.

Another insight was the varying behaviour of cyclones, depending on their point of origin. Fytia, originating in the Channel of Mozambique, developed rapidly, leaving little time for anticipatory actions; by contrast, cyclones from the Indian Ocean, like Gezani, provide several days' lead time. This should be reflected in the EAP, as activation times vary based on cyclone behaviour. The pictures below show the two distinct systems on the west and east coasts of Madagascar.