Hazards covered by anticipation
Conflict and civil unrest | Drought | Floods
Anticipation partners in country
Kenya Red Cross | Start Network | Action Aid | FAO | WFP | Kenya Meteorological Department | National Drought Management Authority | National Disaster Operations Centre | Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries | Ministry of Labour and Social Protection
Inform Risk Index (2022)
Hazard and exposure: 5.3
Lack of coping capacity: 5.9
Total: 5.7 (high)
Photo: Kenya Red Cross / IFRC
Kenya is a lower middle-income country, but among the ten largest economies in Africa. Over 50 per cent of gross domestic product comes from the services sector (including tourism), whereas only 25 per cent comes from agriculture. Approximately 40 per cent of people live below the poverty line.
Kenya’s climate varies greatly, from warm, wet and tropical regions along the coastline to temperate mountains in the centre, and arid and semi-arid savannah. The country is exposed to a diverse range of hazards and other challenges: cyclones, wildfires, thunderstorms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, floods, drought, HIV/AIDS and conflict. Of these, drought and floods pose the greatest risk.
Large areas of Kenya are prone to drought, which affects approximately 5 million people in the country each year and contributes to crop and animal losses - and subsequently food insecurity, especially among smallholder farmers and pastoralists in Central Province and around Nairobi. Major droughts occur on average once per decade in the Horn of Africa as a whole, and smaller ones more frequently.
Riverine floods are a seasonal occurrence in Kenya, particularly along the Tana River and near Lake Victoria. Urban areas often experience frequent flooding as a result of intense rainfall and poor drainage. Flooding affects between 50,000 and 150,000 people each year in Kenya, leading to significant loss of life and damaging buildings and public infrastructure.
In July 2017, the Start Network provided funds to Action Aid to reduce election-based conflict and violence (alert 175). A consortium of organizations in the country offered peacekeeping training and conducted media campaigns to reduce the potential for violence.
Development of forecast-based action mechanisms addressing drought-induced food insecurity in Kenya
In 2020, Welthungerhilfe launched a project to develop a forecast-based action mechanism supporting food security for drought events in Kenya. The project is developing a model for drought triggers, which will activate Early Action Protocols (EAPs) to reduce the risks of food insecurity among vulnerable communities, prevent negative coping strategies, and reduce loss and damages among drought-affected households.
Scaling up anticipatory actions for food security in Africa
In 2021, WFP began a project to strengthen national capacities for anticipatory action through establishing systems for forecast-based financing for drought.
FAO is working to support early action for drought and COVID-19 in Kenya.
The Kenya Red Cross is currently working with national stakeholders to develop an EAP for floods.