Can we still implement anticipatory action in the face of economic hardship?

Can we still implement anticipatory action in the face of economic hardship?

Climate change is no longer a distant threat: it is an immediate crisis that demands strategic investment in systems that safeguard people’s lives and properties. This is especially the case for eastern Africa, which faces increasingly hazardous events, year after year, which claim lives and livelihoods, and cost countries huge amounts of money.

Climate-related disasters such as droughts and floods are not the only challenge facing the region. Since 2020, its people have – like those in many other countries – endured tough economic times, the Covid-19 pandemic and major conflicts. They are now having to contend with dramatic cuts to humanitarian funding as well.

Amid these many constraints, the burning question is: can we still implement anticipatory actions in the face of economic hardships? The short answer is yes, as evidence from several projects shows.

Anticipatory actions can be delivered despite financial limitations

As well as the challenge of accessing the required climate-related data with limited funds, implementing anticipatory actions can be difficult when countries face financial limitations. Some types of action are costly – for example, livestock vaccinations, repairing water infrastructure or purchasing climate-resilient farming inputs – which limits their appropriateness in some contexts. Fortunately, practitioners in eastern Africa are finding low-cost options to suit their available resources.

Three approaches that are contributing significantly to low-cost, multi-hazard anticipatory actions in eastern Africa include: (1) the use of free and readily available government-led early warning information; (2) organizing collective work that is rooted in Indigenous knowledge and practices; and (3) raising risk awareness among communities and practitioners.

1. Free and accessible early warning information for anticipatory action

Anticipatory action approaches rely heavily on early warning systems that are robust and can deliver the timely, actionable information needed to trigger them. Many systems have advanced significantly in recent years in eastern Africa, with specific government agencies investing in improved early warning information and providing this for free. This contributes significantly to anticipatory action in the face of economic hardship, as it removes financial barriers and enables vulnerable households and communities to act proactively without incurring extra costs during already difficult times.

ICPAC, in collaboration with national hydrological and meteorological services, produces seasonal climate outlooks at the regional level, which are then used by IGAD Member States ahead of each season. At the national level, the Kenya Meteorological Department and Uganda’s Meteorological Services Department are among those to issue free forecasts and sector-based advisories for a range of time periods: decadal, seasonal, monthly and weekly, and sometimes even for the following 24 hours.

These free forecasts and advisories remain highly effective during times of financial hardship because they impose no direct cost on users, allowing even resource-constrained households, farmers and pastoralists to access timely information via radio, SMS, community channels or public platforms. With advanced notice, communities can implement low- or no-cost anticipatory measures – such as adjusting planting schedules, reinforcing livestock shelters, clearing drainage canals, water harvesting, stockpiling essential supplies through existing networks, or relocating assets – before hazards escalate.

This contributes to a shift from expensive post-disaster emergency aid to more cost-effective preventive action, reducing overall economic losses and protecting livelihoods when government budgets and household incomes are already stretched. For example, the government of Uganda, with support from FAO, established plant clinics in nine districts of the semi-arid Karamoja region to strengthen early warnings and anticipatory actions for crop pests and diseases. Staffed by trained ‘plant doctors’, these clinics regularly monitor crop fields, provide rapid diagnoses, and train farmers to report suspected outbreaks early, enabling timely treatment that limits the spread of pests and diseases and helps safeguard yields. These services are free for farmers. By reducing crop losses and the need for costly emergency interventions, the plant clinics lower the financial burden on farmers and reinforce local resilience to climate‑sensitive pest and disease hazards.

2. Community-based approaches and Indigenous knowledge

Participatory approaches that combine scientific information with Indigenous knowledge can support community-led anticipatory actions that are lower-cost options. For example, in parts of Uganda, instead of large-scale livestock vaccinations managed by external agencies, community members are trained as ‘para-vets’ or community animal-health workers to administer basic animal-health services. This includes low-cost vaccinations, basic treatment for common ailments using locally sourced supplies, and monitoring animals for early signs of disease.

The use of drought-tolerant and locally adapted seed varieties is a recognized anticipatory action for forecast droughts, enabling farmers to prepare for, rather than merely react to, failed or erratic rainfall. Seed varieties that are suitable for specific agro-ecological zones, as well as the local climate, soil and land suitability, can lead to stable crop yields, reduced losses and limited dependence on external support during a drought. In Kotido District, Northern Uganda, community-managed seed banks and farmer-to-farmer seed-exchange programmes for resilient, locally adapted crop varieties reduce people’s reliance on expensive external inputs.

Another low-cost, community-based action ahead of drought is practiced by Maasai pastoralists in Kenya and Tanzania, who sometimes embark on rotational grazing to allow the vegetation to regenerate, thus ensuring the availability of forage later during the drought. And several communities in eastern Africa mobilize local volunteers to carry out collective labour – such as cleaning and clearing drains, or digging trenches and waterways – ahead of forecast floods, to reduce the risk of water accumulating in high-risk areas. In Rwanda, this practice of collective labour is called Umuganda.  

Indigenous knowledge can also be used to control pests, offering a low-cost approach that reduces farmers’ reliance on expensive inputs. In Uganda, for example, when an outbreak of crop pests and diseases is detected early, farmers, under the guidance of agriculture extension workers, apply locally available and environmentally friendly wood ash for pests and disease control, cutting the need to purchase pesticides.

3.  Cost-effective awareness campaigns

Raising awareness of a hazard among at-risk communities qualifies as an anticipatory action, as it empowers communities to act early, thus reducing their humanitarian needs and strengthening their resilience. This can often be done in highly cost-efficient ways.

Partnering with local radio stations to share broadcasts on adaptive practices (e.g., de-silting drainage canals ahead of floods) is a way to reach wide audiences quickly and cheaply. In remote areas without widespread radio access, community meetings, places of worship and markets are all ways to share messages. Lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic show how essential information can be spread rapidly and cheaply, even to the most isolated places, when shared through trusted channels.

Conclusions

Bearing in mind the challenges brought about in times of economic hardship – in eastern Africa and beyond – anticipatory action is more critical than ever. Investing in anticipatory action is not just a humanitarian need, but also a smart economic decision, as it can often save resources in the long run.

Community-based approaches, Indigenous knowledge and cost-effective communication strategies offer ways for countries to continue developing anticipatory action systems when finances are limited. Governments, international agencies, donors and local communities must work together to prioritize anticipatory actions that are realistic for the resources they have available, and share best practices about cost-efficient options. This will help them to build a future in which communities are better prepared and more resilient to climate shocks, even when financial resources for such actions are scarce.