Drill leads to skill! Simulating anticipatory actions ahead of floods in Kenya
Acting ahead of riverine floods can be tricky. The lead time – the period between a hazard being forecast and when it occurs – is often very short, leaving a limited window for the actions to be implemented. It is therefore crucial for all the stakeholders involved to know exactly what they need to do, and how.
Simulation exercises provide an opportunity for stakeholders to practice and refine the different phases that occur when anticipatory actions are implemented. Under the Welthungerhilfe Anticipatory Humanitarian Action Facility (WAHAFA), Welthungerhilfe (WHH) in Kenya and its local partner, the Pastoralist Community Initiative and Development Assistance (PACIDA), held a simulation of their trigger-based anticipatory action plans (AAPs) for floods in high-risk areas of Marsabit, Samburu and Isiolo counties. These AAPs aim to reduce the impacts of floods for the most vulnerable communities, with a focus on sustaining people’s food security.
This was a critical step towards WHH Kenya and PACIDA refining their AAP and ensuring that everyone involved would be able to act swiftly and effectively if it is triggered. By ‘stress-testing’ the mechanisms and protocols set out in the AAP, the partners were able to pinpoint specific areas for improvement, such as trigger thresholds and how they engage with at-risk populations.
Getting triggers and actions right
During ‘tabletop’ simulations for the three districts, the participants first tested the readiness of the AAPs. This was followed by visits to the target communities, where the teams tested and improved the early warning messages that were developed through the simulations.
The initial focus of the simulation was to test what would happen once the trigger thresholds were reached and the AAP was activated. To assess whether the AAPs were ready to be triggered ahead of an actual flood, WHH Kenya, PACIDA and other Kenyan stakeholders tested the readiness of their organizations ahead of a riverine flood. In particular, they considered:
- relevance and effectiveness: whether the current actions set out in the AAP would make a difference to people’s lives and livelihoods, and are relevant to the community
- timeliness: whether the timelines for the implementation process are correct, including pre-positioning items if needed.
The simulation was also a chance to test:
- communication, for example if information flows well and risks are communicated appropriately to all involved parties, including communities
- the readiness of stakeholders and communities to act immediately when a trigger is reached
- if coordination of the anticipatory actions is effective and efficient, and supports decision-making across the different stakeholders, including the government and humanitarian agencies involved.
Furthermore, the simulation exercise was a chance to promote networking and mutual peer learning among the participating organizations.
Stakeholders in Samburu and Isiolo discuss fictive forecast information. © WHH / Julia Burakowski
Testing how to assess forecast information
During the two-day simulation exercises, participants were presented with fictitious trigger information for floods and asked to develop a plan for monitoring, communicating and acting on the information presented. They were tasked with breaking down the most relevant information for each stakeholder, including donors and at-risk communities. Simulations are most effective when they reflect reality, and in the case of riverine floods, this often means that forecast information and other sources of information (e.g., social media) are limited or conflicting; the information provided was developed to reflect this.
The simulation provided the participants with district-specific community profiles that assessed aspects such as demographics, the communication environment and societal structure. Working together, the organizations taking part created clear and actionable early warning messages, which were tailored to the community profile and the most effective communication channels. These were later tested in the communities.
Lastly, the participants evaluated the readiness activities to be taken by each organization, considering the challenges that might occur if they were rolled out before an actual flood. Using fictitious training materials, such as monitoring reports, written complaints and newspaper articles, they discussed the potential pitfalls that might occur and discussed how to avoid or manage these.
There is a need for further integration and incorporation of indigenous and traditional knowledge as a trigger in the AAP process.
Stakeholders in Samburu and Isiolo draft early warning messages and communication plans for floods, targeting specific community groups. © WHH / Julia Burakowski
From flood to drought: benefitting from the lessons learned
The simulation helped all the stakeholders involved to stress-test their AAPs and systems and determine if they are currently working as effectively as possible, or if they need to improve. The improvements identified will now be documented, shared and used to refine the AAP.
And these findings will not only help to refine the AAPs for floods. They will be evaluated for their relevance to drought, as the WAHAFA programme is also developing AAPs for this hazard.
Reflections from the participants
Afterwards, some of the participants reflected on the usefulness of the simulations.
Effective dissemination of information is important. Not adapting communication channels and methods to illiterate community members, for example, could cause people not [to act] on early warning information. To mitigate this, the project should explore and use all options available to ensure communities’ awareness is well raised.
In future we will keep prioritizing community voices in simulations to generate people-centred AAPs. For sustainability and ownership, we will root AAP development in conflict- and gender-sensitive approaches.
Simple and clear messaging is needed.
Indigenous and traditional knowledge leaders should be empowered to carry out traditional forecasts. These should then be integrated into the scientific forecasts.
The activation of triggers on a timely basis is key in ensuring the effective implementation of AAPs.
Find out more about the development of the AAP on the WAHAFA Kenya project page (forthcoming).
For questions, please contact Julia Burakowski, the advisor for MEAL and capacity anticipatory action at WHH and the focal point for locally led anticipatory action, and Festus Yambu, head of the project at WHH Kenya.