Working in synergy for anticipatory action in Latin America and the Caribbean

Towards more harmonized initiatives

Inter-institutional coordination for anticipatory action has been strengthened over the past four years. In this regard, the German Red Cross, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have announced the creation of the Technical Group on Anticipatory Action (TGAA) for Latin America and the Caribbean.

This group aims to unite efforts to harmonize and scale up anticipatory action initiatives in the region. Harmonization will be carried out at the regional level, complementing national technical groups on anticipatory action, and in close alignment with global discussions and guidelines.

The regional context

Latin America and the Caribbean are highly affected by disasters, with floods and droughts being the most recurrent events, and with the highest impact on people. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have been exacerbated, as evidenced by hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020 and the intense droughts during the El Niño cycle of 2015 to 2016. These events, along with unprecedented wildfires, have had devastating effects on local communities, particularly affecting food security and the livelihoods of small farmers and indigenous peoples.

The figures are significant: for example, hurricanes Eta and Iota alone resulted in over 7 billion US dollars in losses and affected more than 8 million people. According to ODI and Start Network research in 2019, it is estimated that half of the current crises are predictable to some degree, and 20 per cent are highly predictable. However, most responses to these situations remain reactive.

In a context where humanitarian needs are increasing – but resources and available capacities are not keeping pace – it is crucial to transition towards more proactive risk management and incorporate more cost-efficient and sustainable approaches to mitigate these impacts, and protect lives and livelihoods by reducing or minimizing the impacts of predictable humanitarian emergencies.

The current state of anticipatory action in the region

In recent years, the humanitarian community in Latin America and the Caribbean has intensified its efforts to anticipate crises, allowing vulnerable populations to protect themselves more effectively. To date, 18 anticipatory action frameworks have been established in the region, distributed as follows: 2 in the Caribbean, 12 in Central America, and 4 in South America. Most of these frameworks are activated in response to drought (8), followed by storms, hurricanes and floods (7), volcanic ash (2) and human mobility (1).

Currently, 78 per cent of these frameworks have been established by United Nations agencies and the National Red Cross Societies. This highlights a need to expand participation to more institutional actors, including non-governmental organizations.

Of the total humanitarian funding received in 2023 in the region, anticipatory action received just over 1 per cent. Although these frameworks will continue to be only a part of the disaster risk management cycle, this percentage indicates that, despite its growing relevance in political discussions, anticipatory action still represents a minor segment in terms of funding.

To date, the main donors have been the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund, the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations, the German Federal Foreign Office and the government of Ireland, in addition to funding from regional governments.

The Technical Group and its objectives

The TGAA works on five key areas to mitigate the impacts of predictable crises and scale up anticipatory action in the region:

1. Harmonization, learning, exchange and advocacy. Harmonize the anticipatory action concept and its terms; develop studies to close knowledge gaps on anticipatory action; and organize regional events to facilitate knowledge exchange, best practices and lessons learned, as well as to provide spaces to establish new partnerships and develop joint messages and information products.
2. Strengthen early warning systems and climate services, and support the development of common triggers and thresholds. Facilitate the effective activation of anticipatory action frameworks; promote, when possible, impact-based forecasts and data from regional, national and local systems; and regularly discuss forecast data and the monitoring of existing frameworks.
3. Promote anticipatory action frameworks and joint activities. Continue joint efforts at the regional, national and local levels through coordinated and/or complementary joint activations for the implementation of anticipatory action.
4. Develop joint initiatives and promote access to flexible financing. Jointly promote the adoption of anticipatory actions, including those involving vulnerable communities in their establishment; and facilitate access to flexible financing to operate anticipatory action frameworks effectively and with sufficient scope.
5. Support institutionalization. Strengthen capacities and provide technical support to incorporate the anticipatory action approach into policies, legal frameworks and risk management plans; reinforce the capacity of institutional actors at the regional, national and local levels, including public service entities; and recognize the existing capacities of communities and civil society.