Celebrating ten years of anticipatory action at the Global Dialogue Platform
There was a sense of excitement in the air as the 13th Global Dialogue Platform began, with participants from around 120 countries gathering for an anniversary event. “This is a party to celebrate ten years of anticipatory action,” announced Irene Amuron, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, as she opened day one.
The pilot projects for this approach, which started in 2015, explored whether it was possible to provide humanitarian assistance based on forecasts, with the initial focus being floods in Togo and Uganda. That same year, around 60 humanitarians met for the first dialogue platform to discuss how to build a more proactive humanitarian system. The dialogue platforms have expanded greatly since then, mirroring the expansion of this approach, and several speakers during the opening session highlighted the landmarks reached along the way.
“We are all facing a perfect storm; it has become a lot harder to be a humanitarian," admitted Martin Frick, World Food Programme (WFP) in Berlin. "But this room is full of warmth and energy in these ‘cold’ times. We have seen that this is the most efficient way of using the money. In addition, it is maybe the most dignified way, because you enable [at-risk] people to have agency; they know their situation best.”
“I have been at most of the global dialogue platforms," added Christof Johnen, German Red Cross. "I like the audacity, and the courage to call it a ‘global’ platform, right from the beginning. Also, at the start, it was a bunch of nerdy people meeting, but today, it is an example of what can be achieved when people have a vision.”
Most of the deadliest and costliest hydrometeorological disasters this century were forecast: we knew they were coming. [To mitigate the impacts] we need planning, we need resources and we need coordinated action. That is what anticipatory action gives us: it closes the gap between “we knew” and “we acted”.
Ten years ago, we were pioneers – and I include the GFFO in that ‘we’ – and we formed this approach as a gamechanger across the humanitarian system. Since then, we have championed this approach and [it] has expanded rapidly. And the German government remains deeply committed to the anticipatory action agenda.
We have proven that anticipatory action is not only common sense; it is also possible. Frameworks are now in place in 70 countries. This is extraordinary progress – and it is only possible thanks to your efforts. The question is no longer whether anticipatory action works: it is how to scale it [up] sustainably.
FAO has made anticipatory action a core operational pillar [in the past decade]. In 2016, we had only two protocols; now we have 52 in 30 countries. There are three highlights [from the last ten years]: (1) cost-effectiveness; (2) [national and government] ownership and institutionalization; and (3) we have built strong alliances with partners.
Start Network’s triggers [first] helped GREDO to act ahead of drought in Somalia. Now, challenges remain, such as financing and access to data... but we are proud that it changed how we respond to a crisis. It was very important for us as a local organization; the GREDO team has gained a lot of experience.
Anticipatory action comes of age
What does a Lebkuchenherz (gingerbread heart) – a traditional delicacy found at German festivals – have to do with anticipatory action? According to those who were there at the start, the initial idea for this approach formed among a group of humanitarians who were at an Oktoberfest event in Lima, Peru, in 2013. While sharing their frustrations over why they couldn't use forecasts to begin providing relief, they realized that the main blockage was the lack of financing available when a hazard was forecast; funds were only released after a disaster. Together, they conjured up ways to link the release of financing to hazard forecasts, rather than waiting for the impacts to unfold.
These conversations led to anticipatory action being trialled in pilot projects, and it has expanded greatly since then: in 2024, it was being applied in 48 countries and ahead of many more types of hazards. During the second plenary session, the participants, who were joining online and in Berlin, Germany, looked back at some of the main achievements of the past decade. “And you have all, in one way or another, contributed to these achievements,” noted Dr Nikolas Scherer, Anticipation Hub, as he led the audience through some of the milestones of the past decade.
Are you wondering why it’s the 13th Global Dialogue Platform, but the 10th year? It’s because in the early years, these events were held twice a year: now, dialogue platforms are held each year at the national and regional levels, with the global gathering drawing toegther the annual discussions.
Preparing for the next decade
This year’s event takes place at a challenging time for the humanitarian sector, however. Across the world, many hazards – both climate-driven and human-driven – are worsening; even as the event began, humanitarians were coping with crises around the world, such as deadly floods in Asia and the worsening drought in Ethiopia. Further sessions over the coming days will consider the future for anticipatory action, as it strives to adapt to deepening crises around the world – and at a time when cuts to humanitarian budgets are affecting many organizations.
A selection of images from day one
The 13th Global Dialogue Platform continues until 4 December; you can follow the discussions online. It is hosted by the Anticipation Hub, an initiative of the IFRC, the German Red Cross, and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and co-organized by WFP, FAO, OCHA, Start Network, Welthungerhilfe, the Danish Refugee Council and GREDO. It is supported by the GFFO.
Photos by Philipp Meise.