Readouts from policy fora in the first half of 2025

Humanitarian Networks and Partnerships Week

Humanitarian Networks and Partnerships Week (HNPW), held in Geneva, Switzerland, in March, once again showcased the growing significance of anticipatory action. It was the most prominent ‘Area of Common Concern’, with 25 dedicated sessions – of which 18 were hosted by Anticipation Hub partners.

This year’s discussions underscored the increasing maturity of this approach and its growing diversity, with several dominant themes emerging. One was the need for locally led, community-based and people-centred anticipatory action, with an emphasis on the importance of local leadership and community agency in both its design and implementation. Sessions addressing this theme included 'Empowering communities: people-centred, locally led approaches', which explained how these contribute to more effective and sustainable outcomes.

Another theme was anticipatory action in the face of multiple hazards, with discussions exploring the operational challenges of responding to compounding risks, such as situations where climate change, conflict and displacement collide. The 'Anticipating complex crises: action at the intersection of climate, disasters and conflict' session emphasized the need for integrated systems to address these interconnected threats.

Other sessions looked at data, digital innovation and risk monitoring, and how technology – particularly predictive analytics and early warning systems – can improve the accuracy and timeliness of anticipatory action.

Readout

Overall, HNPW 2025 reaffirmed the growing centrality of anticipatory action in humanitarian efforts, although many speakers noted that scaling up this work remains contingent on securing sustainable funding, given the growing humanitarian needs. There was, however, an overarching theme in Geneva that week: the widespread funding cuts that are shaking the humanitarian system. During HNPW, Tom Fletcher, chair of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee, announced a “humanitarian reset” and many discussions centred on the impact of these cuts across the sector and on organizations. The implications for anticipatory action remain unclear – and the Anticipation Hub has issued a survey to capture some insights.

A more positive outcome from the week was the shared commitment to intensify advocacy efforts and ensure that anticipatory action is positioned at the core of ongoing discussions about humanitarian reform.

European Humanitarian Forum

In contrast to HNPW, anticipatory action featured only minimally at the European Humanitarian Forum, held in Brussels, Belgium, from 19 to 20 May. Instead, the two central themes were: (1) an integrated approach to fragility; and (2) humanitarian diplomacy. Discussions highlighted the need for stronger collaboration among humanitarian, development and peace actors to effectively address the complex and overlapping crises in fragile contexts. Participants also stressed the importance of upholding international humanitarian law and protection in the humanitarian space.

Anticipatory action did appear in two sessions, though. 'Moving towards a people-centred, integrated humanitarian approach in fragile contexts: a case study from Somalia' highlighted the role of anticipatory action in the country, while 'From vulnerability to resilience: tackling the root causes of climate-induced fragility and related risk' looked at the application of anticipatory action in Central America. 

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For a forum intended to represent the full spectrum of humanitarian action, this limited focus on anticipatory action fell short of expectations. However, beyond the official programme, anticipatory action featured prominently in many panel discussions and informal conversations, particularly in the context of the humanitarian reset. And, complementing HNPW, the need for a new humanitarian system that is more locally driven, people-centred and anticipatory shone through.

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Overall, GP2025 presented a mixed picture on anticipatory action. It was inspiring to hear strong contributions that highlighted the importance of locally led, people-centred and multi-hazard approaches, alongside calls for increased financing and new partnerships. Most importantly, it was an opportunity to connect with anticipatory action champions from around the world; it was reassuring to see the community aligned in its messaging and united in recognizing ongoing efforts.

However, much of the policy discourse felt more like a stock-taking: heavy on rhetoric but light on actionable outcomes. While anticipatory action is increasingly being institutionalized within government systems, it still lacks a solid legal foundation, adequate financing and cross-sectoral support, among the other critical elements required for it to be fully mainstreamed (see pages 24-25 of our recent report). This felt like a missed opportunity: both GP2025 and the Global Early Warning for All Multi-Stakeholder Forum could have provided valuable platforms to reflect on and debate the way forward, but neither took the chance to discuss concrete steps or secure broader political buy-in. And the truly pressing issue –  the implications of funding cuts amid rising needs – was not even mentioned, let alone addressed.

Reflections from the three events

Recent policy discussions have consistently emphasized the need to reform systems to be more locally led, people-centred and anticipatory. The evidence from these three events suggests that, to date, anticipatory action has made a compelling case for its importance in this respect.

Against this backdrop, it is crucial that anticipatory action does not become a diluted concept. As it gains traction in various sectors and within debates about humanitarian reform, its definition risks becoming blurred or inconsistent. Without a clear, shared understanding – including an awareness of its limitations – there is a danger it becomes a vague, general term that lacks focus and impact. Now more than ever, it is essential to speak with one unified voice.

Moreover, it is important to reiterate that anticipatory action is just one tool among many within the broader framework for disaster risk reduction. Proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of predicted hazards (before they fully unfold) complement – rather than replace – other strategies, such as long-term development planning and disaster response and recovery. At times, discussions risk framing this as a trade-off between saving lives today and protecting those at risk in the future. In reality, both elements – anticipation and response – are needed. 

Lastly, despite compelling evidence of its benefits (see, for example, the recent studies by WFP and FAO), it is likely that anticipatory action will face growing scrutiny in an environment of severe financial constraints. This underscores the urgent need to further strengthen the case for anticipatory action.