Placing anticipatory action at the heart of climate priorities in West and Central Africa

Placing anticipatory action at the heart of climate priorities in West and Central Africa

The Anticipatory Action Task Force (TFAA) for West and Central Africa recently participated in the Regional Forum on Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts (PRESASS) 2026, held in N’Djamena, Chad, from 20 to 24 April 2026. Organized under the leadership of the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), through AGRHYMET, this is a strategic platform for dialogue between the producers and users of climate information in West Africa and the Sahel.

Against a backdrop of increasingly frequent climate shocks – notably floods and droughts – and their humanitarian impacts, the messages delivered throughout the forum underscored the need to rethink traditional risk-management approaches. “Forecasting is no longer enough; we must now anticipate,” emphasized Dr Martial Traoré, regional coordinator of the Regional Programme to Support Food and Nutritional Security, while calling for the better translation of climate forecasts into concrete decisions to protect populations.

Participants from the TFAA for West and Central Africa contributed to this rethink through structured and proactive suggestions. Throughout the discussions at PRESASS 2026, they highlighted the added value of anticipatory action as a bridge between climate forecasting, risk analysis and early interventions. They also presented the core principles of anticipatory action – the need to use reliable forecasts, clearly defined trigger thresholds and pre‑established operational mechanisms – by sharing examples from Chad, Mauritania and Nigeria. These demonstrated how anticipating flood and drought risks, in close collaboration with national meteorological and hydrological services, significantly reduced humanitarian impacts before these crises unfolded.

A strategic step forward for anticipatory action in West and Central Africa

This was the first time the TFAA for West and Central Africa has taken part in a PRESASS, representing a strategic step forward. It extended the message of anticipatory action beyond the region’s circle of specialized humanitarian actors, while strengthening dialogue with forecasters and climate-information producers from national meteorological agencies, representatives of regional institutions, humanitarian and sectoral actors, as well as decision‑makers. It also encouraged the more rigorous integration of anticipatory action into regional and national disaster-risk-management policies and mechanisms. This aligns with the vision articulated by Dr Dayo Guiguigbaza‑Kossigan, director general of the AGRHYMET Regional Center, who highlighted the central role of regional climate institutions in advancing and operationalizing anticipatory action: “AGRHYMET must become a reference tool for anticipating climate crises in West Africa and the Sahel”.

There was strong interest in anticipatory action throughout the forum. Participants raised numerous questions during the forum’s exchanges, technical discussions and plenary sessions, as well as the event’s press conference. During the closing session, national and regional meteorological authorities acknowledged the growing importance of anticipatory within the region’s climate-risk-management ecosystem, noting that climate information only fulfills its purpose when it is used in a timely manner to protect people and their livelihoods. This was reflected in the PRESASS 2026 Final Communiqué, which identifies anticipatory action as a priority recommendation for managing flood risks. The communiqué also explicitly calls for the improved use of seasonal and sub‑seasonal forecasts to anticipate impacts, strengthen preparedness, and reduce human, material and economic losses.

In the same spirit, operational follow‑up to these discussions is already under way. This will support national ownership of anticipatory action, strengthen communication around climate forecasts, and facilitate their translation into concrete decisions for the benefit of at‑risk populations. Aware that anticipatory action remains a relatively new approach for many actors in the region, the TFAA plans to further strengthen and expand training and capacity‑building activities, which are a key condition for scaling up anticipatory action sustainably across West and Central Africa.