From reactive to proactive: anticipatory action for drought through social protection systems in the Philippines

Anticipatory action can reduce the impacts of slow-onset disasters on rural farming communities. One example is the successful implementation of a pilot scheme to act ahead of the El Niño-induced drought in Echague municipality, Isabela Province, Philippines.

The growing impacts of drought

As early as the first quarter of 2023, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported the unusual warming of sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. In the following months, this developed from a weak El Niño to a moderate-to-strong El Niño, which brought a challenging mix of drought conditions in the Philippines: suppressed rainfall and sweltering temperatures that left fields dry and crops struggling.

By June 2024, the drought had already caused agricultural damages and losses of over 9.89 billion Philippine pesos (169 million US dollars / 158 million euros). Furthermore, the drought was threatening the livelihoods of more than 180,000 farmers and fisherfolk in the Philippines, according to the national Department of Agriculture.

The B-SPARED pilot project

To support the proactive measure taken by the Philippine government, the Building on Social Protection for Anticipatory Action in Response to Emergencies and Disasters (B-SPARED) pilot project aimed to demonstrate how anticipatory action could help to build resilience to the ever-changing climate. The project also aimed to support efforts to advocate for anticipatory action to be scaled up and institutionalized in the country.

With support from the European Union, the first step was to monitor and analyse the early warning information. Below-average rainfall, high temperatures and poor soil moisture conditions dominated, raising concerns throughout the government. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), together with the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), PAGASA and the Philippine Space Agency (PhilSA), monitored the conditions monthly and used the forecast information to project the potential for further impacts on the country’s agriculture sector.

Isabela province was an area of particular concern, with farmers already facing  impacts from the dry conditions. Emmanuel Ariola, a corn farmer from Isabela, shared his struggles:

Using the early warning information and validations from affected communities, FAO, in partnership with DSWD, and in coordination with the Department of Agriculture, PAGASA, PhilSA and the concerned local government units, worked together to develop its Anticipatory Action Protocol for Drought. This would serve as the basis for the release of much needed cash-based interventions and farming tools before the full impacts of the agricultural drought were realized. By acting early, the partners sought to address food insecurity and reduce the scale of losses in yield for corn and palay (rice in Filipino).

Building on existing social protection systems

The second step was to piggy-back on the Philippines’ existing social protection systems as a way to target beneficiaries who will receive cash-based interventions. Historically, the country has invested in social protection programmes and systems to build resilience against shocks, including those caused by climate-related events. For this project, FAO, together with its government counterparts, used the sectoral registry of farmers, known as the Registry System for Basic Sector in Agriculture, and the national poverty registry, Listahanan 3, which served as the primary list for targeting and enrolling 954 poor households who depended on rain-fed farming. This avoided having to start from scratch when identifying who needed support the most.

At the same time, the project explored how these registries could be used ahead of other forecast hazards, to support the shift from reactive to proactive disaster management. It also explored possible links with some of the government’s other resilience programmes.

Anticipatory cash and agricultural inputs

The third element of the project involved delivering the anticipatory actions. The first of these was one-time, multipurpose anticipatory cash assistance for households whose income sources had been affected, or whose crop yields had reduced by an average of 40 per cent. The cash transfer value of 3,450 pesos (60 US dollars / 56 euros) is approximately 30 per cent of the monthly Minimum Expenditure Basket, and the amount agreed with the in-country Cash Working Group.

While delivered after the initial impacts of the drought, this cash was provided ahead of the anticipated impacts of income loss and reduced yields, such as increased food insecurity.   For example, farmers used the cash to supplement irrigation systems (e.g., to buy fuel for pumps)   to preserve the remaining standing crops in rain-fed farms.

Mammy Melivo, a pineapple and corn farmer, highlighted why this anticipatory cash assistance was important for her and her children:

Building resilience through anticipatory action

To maximize the impacts, the BSPARED project was aligned with the DSDW’s risk resiliency programme. This government programme provided the cash-for-work and training interventions necessary for the rehabilitation or construction of small farm reservoirs and building community gardens; meanwhile, BSPARED provided the much-needed farming tools and personal protective gear, providing farm workers with the equipment and safety gear they need. As a result, an average of three small water-impounding systems per village can now be used by rain-fed farmlands for the next cropping season.

Lucia Suyu-Alan, regional director of the DSWD, emphasized the significance of this alignment: “Through our collective efforts, we have the potential to effect transformative change in the lives of marginalized individuals and we should look at how to scale this up in the future.”

A model for the future

This pilot project demonstrated that anticipatory action, when integrated with existing social protection mechanisms, can deliver timely assistance to those at risk from drought. At present, an impact analysis is being conducted with the DSWD to understand the effectiveness of this approach and inform efforts to scale it up in the future. However, the initial outcomes of the initiative in Isabela Province demonstrate some of the core elements – anticipatory actions, effective inter-departmental coordination and the use of existing social protection systems – of a model for building resilience to future climate-related hazards.