A new briefing highlights how anticipatory action can deliver results in fragile and conflict-affected contexts

The humanitarian system is at an inflection point. Nearly 300 million people worldwide require assistance, the majority in fragile and conflict-affected settings where crises are increasingly frequent, complex and deadly. Meanwhile, aid budgets are shrinking, with humanitarian funding projected to decline by up to 45 per cent by the end of 2025 (compared with 2023). This widening gap has accelerated calls for a more efficient, equitable and risk-informed humanitarian model, as envisioned in the humanitarian reset.

Anticipatory action has emerged as a key enabler of the vision for the humanitarian reset, offering a proven way to help offset the impacts of aid cuts. By acting ahead of predictable shocks (e.g., floods, cyclones, droughts or disease outbreaks), anticipatory action protects lives and livelihoods, strengthens local leadership and accountability, and reduces the cost and scale of humanitarian response efforts. As a new briefing by the Anticipatory Action Task Force shows, almost 40 per cent of all activations in 2024 took place in fragile and conflict-affected countries, and these accounted for two-thirds of the global funding disbursed for anticipatory action.

Delivering impacts in fragile and conflict-affected settings

Evidence from Afghanistan, Haiti, Somalia and Yemen, which is presented in the briefing, shows that anticipatory action is both feasible and effective in such contexts. For example, it can improve food security, reduce negative coping strategies and stabilize fragile conditions. However, anticipatory action faces major barriers in these settings, including weak data and forecasting, administrative challenges, and severe access and security constraints.

Effective implementation requires robust risk analysis, flexible targeting and adaptive programming. Partnerships with national agencies, global open-source forecasts and locally led delivery models have helped to overcome some of these challenges. To unlock the full potential of this approach, donor leadership and sustained investment are critical. The briefing sets out a number of policy recommendations for government donors:

• Increase predictable, multi-year and flexible financing for anticipatory action in fragile and conflict-affected countries, including through existing pooled funds, and direct this support to local actors wherever possible.
• Invest in data, forecasting and analytical capacity, hydrometeorological infrastructure, and open data standards.
• Strengthen political and diplomatic support to institutionalize anticipatory action and overcome access, policy and bureaucratic barriers.
• Support partnerships, coordination and evidence generation by funding public goods such as toolkits, evaluations and common platforms.

Anticipatory action is not only possible in fragile and conflict-affected settings; it is essential. Acting before predictable shocks prevents crises from escalating, protects fragile development gains, and reduces the costs of responding to emergencies. With sustained investment, robust data systems and strong partnerships, anticipatory action can transform humanitarian response efforts in the world’s most vulnerable contexts.