Making sense of the synergies: how anticipatory action connects to other approaches and sectors

Anticipatory action does not happen in isolation; it is interwoven with other humanitarian approaches, as well as the climate and development sectors. In this month’s blog, we asked some of our partners to explain how these synergies play out in practice.

How do anticipatory action and disaster preparedness intersect? 

At the IRC, we see anticipatory action and broader disaster or emergency preparedness as interdependent; they build on and support each other. Robust emergency preparedness makes it easier to scale up a rapid anticipatory action intervention, while the availability of flexible global funding for anticipatory action improves emergency preparedness.  

Cash preparedness provides a perfect example of the mutual benefits of investing in both approaches. The trigger-based intervention – anticipatory action – requires a backdrop of emergency preparedness in the form of pre-identified vendors and distribution networks. The IRC’s emergency preparedness systems include a specific cash-preparedness checklist; when forecasts indicate the risk of floods or drought, one of the first steps in starting up anticipatory action is to review this cash preparedness checklist and use the four-month lead time to reinforce and adapt any outstanding issues. 

Anticipatory action and... climate change adaptation 

Mosammat Saida Begum, Oxfam in Bangladesh, and Prakash Kafle, Oxfam in Nepal 

What are the main synergies between climate change adaptation and anticipatory action?  

Climate change adaptation and anticipatory action both aim to reduce people’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, such as those from severe floods and droughts. But while adaptation is a long-term strategy that aims to improve systemic resilience to climate change, anticipatory action is proactive and short term, focusing on mitigating the immediate impacts before anticipated disasters occur.  

Because of these differences in scale and timeline, the two approaches are complementary – and aligning them helps to ensure that short-term preparedness contributes to longer-term resilience. This creates more comprehensive and inclusive strategies, for example work to strengthen early warning systems or using insights from anticipatory action to inform long-term adaptation planning. Similarly, strengthening the capacities and agency of local organizations in either approach is mutually reinforcing, leading to benefits for both.  

Taken together, climate change adaptation and anticipatory action create a robust framework for managing climate risks and bridging the gap between local action and global climate goals.

Are there risks of overlaps or duplicated efforts between these two approaches?  

From our experience, although climate change adaptation and anticipatory action work toward similar goals, the latter is relatively underfunded. It is difficult to duplicate efforts when there is not enough anticipatory action happening! 

At the same time, climate issues often feel too big or complex for local-level planning, and strategizing climate change in global spaces does not fully incorporate the local-level adaptation work that takes place. As anticipatory action focuses on targeted local risks, adaptation can learn and benefit from local anticipatory approaches, rather than overlapping. The trick is to ensure the two approaches are well coordinated; if not, it can lead to confusion, duplication, missed opportunities and exclusion. 

Anticipatory action and... early warnings 

Kara Devonna Siahaan and Maria Lourdes Kathleen Macasil, Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) initiative

How does anticipatory action intersect with early warnings – including the Early Warnings for All initiative? 

Anticipatory action relies on all four components of early warning systems: (1) hazard identification and monitoring, including forecasting; (2) risk assessment; (3) warning dissemination; and (4) preparedness and response.  

In anticipatory action, hazard forecasts are combined with risk assessments (data on exposure and vulnerability) to predict likely impacts, using approaches such as impact-based forecasting. The forecasts are then translated into clear, actionable scenarios and thresholds that allow pre-agreed actions to begin, and financing to be released, through established frameworks or protocols. This approach enables people and organizations to identify, with greater precision, who is most at risk, where to act, and when to act to prevent hazards from becoming disasters. Disseminating these warnings is another integral part of anticipatory action, falling within broader preparedness and response components. 

The Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative highlights the importance of anticipatory action in achieving its mission of protecting lives. Anticipatory action is systematically included in EW4All action plans as a catalytic measure to strengthen the delivery of early warning systems. 

What are the main opportunities for collaboration with people working on early warning systems? 

Anticipatory action and early warning systems often involve the same experts, yet forecasters often focus on science, while disaster managers can struggle to turn forecasts into action. For success, forecasters must understand end-user needs, and disaster managers must translate forecasts for communities. Co-design processes involving scientists, policy-makers and at-risk communities help to ensure that warnings are relevant, trusted and actionable.  

Though progress has been made globally, scaling up anticipatory action requires it to be integrated into national disaster-risk systems. This includes adopting impact-based forecasting, piloting technologies such as artificial intelligence and cell broadcast, and developing legal frameworks to enable forecast-based financing from national budgets to be used for timely, life-saving interventions.

Anticipatory action and... early action 

Karen Dall, German Red Cross 

Is an anticipatory action different to an early action? If so, how? 

Anticipatory action is the overarching term for a proactive approach to disaster risk management; anticipatory actions and early actions refer to the specific interventions within this framework. When anticipatory action was first piloted, these interventions were usually called early actions. However, an ‘early action’ or ‘early response’ in disaster risk management can also describe interventions implemented after a disaster strikes, if they’re implemented swiftly. 

Using ‘anticipatory actions’ helps to avoid any confusion regarding the timing of an intervention. The crucial point is that the actions are taken before a hazard strikes, or before its impacts occur, and that they are based on a forecast. 

And finally... whatever happened to forecast-based financing? 

Forecast-based financing, or FbF, was one of the first terms for what is now widely known as anticipatory action. While FbF might not be as common today – and the term is a bit cumbersome – it accurately captures the foundational and innovative idea: using forecasts to trigger humanitarian funding for actions taken before a hazard strikes.  

While the terminology has changed, some practitioners still refer to their anticipatory action initiatives as FbF. In that sense, FbF is not something that happened in the past; rather, it has matured and gained prominence as a critical tool for humanitarian action – and is now widely known as anticipatory action.