Social protection as an engine for anticipatory action
A new study, published by the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS), the German Red Cross and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, highlights how social protection systems can be used to scale up anticipatory action initiatives.
Drawing on findings from a simulation exercise in Bangladesh, it demonstrates that anticipatory cash transfers – which are delivered to at-risk communities before a hazard strikes – can be implemented effectively by working through existing social protection systems. The simulation also identified some of the factors that can support this approach to cash transfers, such as the importance of data-sharing and digital inclusion, and addressing institutional barriers.
The links between social protection and anticipatory action
Strengthening the links between social protection systems and anticipatory action brings many benefits. For example, it can help to scale up anticipatory action initiatives, enhance their sustainability, and increase government ownership of such systems.
Shock-responsive social protection is a key approach for achieving this. It enables existing social protection systems to adapt in response to climate and disaster risks by expanding their coverage, increasing the benefits people receive, or adjusting their timing so that support is provided ahead of shocks. By building on established institutional arrangements, beneficiary registries and payment mechanisms, social protection systems offer a credible and efficient platform for scaling up anticipatory action initiatives beyond pilot projects.
Simulating cash transfers through Bangladesh’s social protection system
During the simulation, which took place in August 2025, the BDRCS using components of the existing social protection system to deliver cash transfers to 301 people in Ward 4 of Rajshahi city. Each was already a recipient of the old age allowance, and they received a top-up payment of 2,400 Bangladeshi taka (approximately 20 US dollars/17 euros) through the simulation exercise. This was done in close collaboration with government actors working on social protection and disaster management.
The simulation also explored how climate-risk considerations can be incorporated into social protection systems and early warning mechanisms, among others. For example, the Rajshahi City Corporation is an area at high risk from heat waves, and the simulation looked at how social protection systems could be used to deliver meaningful early warnings, and information on ways to use their cash assistance, to people at risk.
The exercise built on the BDRCS’s ongoing advocacy for the use of social protection systems as a way to deliver anticipatory cash transfers ahead of climate shocks. It has been engaged in continued consultations with the Ministry of Social Welfare and the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief to test the feasibility of institutionalizing anticipatory mechanisms within social protection systems since 2021.
Lessons from the simulation exercise
The simulation exercise provided evidence that it is feasible for social protection systems to deliver anticipatory actions, such as cash transfers - in Rajshahi specifically, and more broadly in Bangladesh. Pilots and simulations such as this can serve as a useful demonstration tool for governments, showing how anticipatory approaches can be integrated into national systems and financed, and indicating how they could be delivered at scale.
The anticipatory cash simulation in Rajshahi also confirmed several lessons about the challenges faced, and the successes achieved, during the long-term efforts to advocate for this approach:
- When social protection interventions are adjusted and used for climate shocks, they can facilitate anticipatory action and help manage climate risks.
- It is important to work with both national systems (e.g., beneficiary lists) and local actors (e.g., BDRCS volunteers) in areas highly exposed to hazards.
- There are high levels of community and government preparedness and appetite for using this approach, as well as strong political commitment to improve it.
- Strong partnerships with governments are essential for anticipatory action interventions that seek to use social protection systems.
- Early information on imminent cash transfers is critical for recipients.
- The BDRCS is well placed to strengthen the government’s social protection systems.
This article was written by Sayanti Sengupta, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and Anita Auerbach, German Red Cross.
The authors would like to extend their gratitude to the German Federal Foreign Office and the European Union for financing the simulation and the production of the brief and human stories.
