Closing the gap between planning and action: maintaining operational readiness in anticipatory action

Closing the gap between planning and action: maintaining operational readiness in anticipatory action

There has been substantial progress in recent years in developing anticipatory action plans (AAPs) and strengthening technical methods for this approach. In many places, these plans are now well established, designed to trigger when the predefined forecast thresholds are reached.

As anticipatory action systems mature, however, it is becoming increasingly important to ask: how can organizations ensure that their AAPs remain operationally ready over time? The second iteration of Welthungerhilfe’s Anticipatory Humanitarian Action Facility – WAHAFA 2.0 – has a dedicated mechanism, known as Operational Readiness Maintenance, to address this.

The challenge of keeping AAPs operational over time

Even when AAPs are validated, they are not always activated. The forecast thresholds may not be reached, or resources may not be available exactly when needed. As a result, these plans can remain dormant for months or even years, while the operational environment around them continues to evolve.

This does not mean that the plans themselves are weak. In most cases, AAPs remain technically sound and well designed. What changes over time are the conditions required to implement them. Staff turnover, evolving partnerships, shifting funding cycles and expiring supplier agreements all affect how and whether the actions set out in a plan can be executed. For example, many non-governmental organizations operate within time-bound projects, with limited resources and with evolving teams and partnerships.

Another issue is that funding is often tied to specific phases, usually either to build AAPs or to fuel their implementation once they are activated. Funding does not always extend to maintaining their operational readiness over time. Consequently, the systems, capacities and assumptions that support the implementation of AAPs may gradually become less aligned with current realities. The result is that when action is eventually required, what was once ready on paper may no longer be fully ready in practice.

WAHAFA’s Operational Readiness Maintenance mechanism

For anticipatory action to remain effective over time, operational readiness needs to be maintained, not simply established. Lessons from WAHAFA’s first phase and findings from its final evaluation highlight the importance of sustaining the capacities, systems and partnerships established through the AAP development process.

These lessons helped shape the design of WAHAFA 2.0. A central consideration was how partners and their validated AAPs could be better supported during extended periods during which they weren’t activated, as well as after activations when operational arrangements may need to be reviewed, updated or revalidated. These challenges were also reflected in CARE’s recent study on anticipatory action readiness, which draws attention to the gap between the build and activation phases of AAPs and notes that greater attention is needed to ensure their maintenance and readiness over time.

The Operational Readiness Maintenance mechanism was developed to address these issues. Designed as a light-touch mechanism, it supports WAHAFA partners to maintain the readiness of their AAPs over time.

• Through periodic assessments of operational readiness, partners can review whether the core elements required for implementation remain in place and identify any gaps that may have emerged since a plan was validated or activated. For example, they can identify whether targeting data remains up to date, whether current staff are familiar with the AAP, and whether essential operational arrangements (e.g., supplier agreements or financial procedures) remain in place.
• Based on the findings, partners can implement maintenance activities to address identified gaps. These may include simulation exercises, updating specific operational procedures, renewing framework agreements or strengthening other elements essential for implementation.
• When needed, a maintenance support grant is available to address these gaps through focused, time-bound activities.

Rather than creating a new programme phase each time, this mechanism provides flexible support within existing processes to address readiness gaps as conditions evolve.

A stronger system for AAPs

Anticipatory action does not end with planning, nor does it begin only when trigger thresholds are reached. Its effectiveness depends on what happens in between. WAHAFA 2.0 builds on the strengths of its first phase while addressing a challenge that is becoming increasingly relevant for anticipatory action practitioners worldwide. The Operational Readiness Maintenance mechanism now provides partners with a practical way to periodically review the readiness of their AAPs and address emerging gaps before they affect implementation.