Celebrating ten years of anticipatory action at the Global Dialogue Platform
The 13th Global Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action begins on 2 December, in Berlin and online. As we approach this anniversary edition – it's ten years since the first edition was held – we asked members of the organizing team for their thoughts on the past decade, and their hopes for the next one.
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Irene Amuron, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
What have been the main achievements for anticipatory action in the last ten years?
Governments and donors have recognized anticipatory action as an effective adaptation tool; this has been a profound achievement. We have also seen the development of the financing mechanisms for anticipatory action: the IFRC's DREF, Start Ready and the UN's CERF, among others.
Also, seeing governments such as Bangladesh and the Philippines, among others, institutionalize anticipatory action within their disaster-risk-management frameworks is worth celebrating.
Where do you think we fell short?
We have not achieved the level of scale that we expected: we are still largely operating at the ‘pilot’ scale
What do you think should be the priority for the next ten years?
Heavily invest in national actors to deliver meaningful anticipatory action – and take this approach to scale. The humanitarian reset agenda calls for the efficient and effective utilization of limited resources, and local actors must be supported enough to play their critical role in the delivery of sustainable and locally led anticipatory action.
Juan Bazo, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
What have been the main achievements for anticipatory action in the last ten years?
Over the past decade, anticipatory action has advanced significantly, moving from small pilot initiatives to institutionalized mechanisms. It has been demonstrated that it can save lives, time and resources, and has increasingly become recognized as a practical approach within humanitarian and disaster-management systems.
Where do you think we fell short?
We still fall short in translating scientific information into operational decision-making at scale, particularly in contexts with limited data availability, weak coordination and insufficient institutional ownership. These gaps make it difficult to operationalize anticipatory action consistently and effectively.
What should be the priority for the next ten years?
The priority should be to invest in stronger systems for impact data, to better integrate local knowledge with forecasting science, and to ensure that anticipatory action becomes a standard component of disaster-management policies, budgets and national systems, and at all levels.
Read more about the Climate Centre's work on anticipatory action here.
Sude Niehues, WHH
What have been the main achievements for anticipatory action in the last ten years?
A decade ago, anticipatory action was largely discussed as a potential opportunity; today, it is a recognized way of working across many humanitarian and disaster-risk-reduction systems. It has moved beyond theoretical potential towards operational practice, with clearer trigger mechanisms, predefined actions and coordination structures that enable us to act before humanitarian needs peak.
The scope of anticipatory action has also widened, with early action plans now addressing a broader range of hazards and complex risk patterns. Taken together, these developments show that anticipatory action is no longer framed as an innovation; rather, it now shapes how communities, organizations and authorities prepare for recurrent shocks.
Where do you think we fell short?
Despite clear progress, anticipatory action has not yet seen genuine leadership by the people most exposed to risks. Localization is widely acknowledged in principle, but decision-making on triggers, timing and the actions implemented still rests largely with external actors. As a result, communities are often consulted, but rarely in a position to steer the process.
Risk communication continues to be another critical gap: early warnings are not consistently delivered in formats that are accessible, timely or trusted. Without stronger community leadership and meaningful risk communication, even well-designed anticipatory systems struggle to implement actions when hazards intensify.
What do you think should be the priority for the next ten years?
The next decade must focus on ensuring that anticipatory action systems are not only well designed, but reliably activated when the thresholds (triggers) are reached. This requires financing that is directly linked to triggers, so that pre-agreed actions can be implemented immediately, rather than being dependent on further decisions during critical time windows.
Equally important is embedding community leadership in the design and activation of anticipatory action, so that the actions reflect people's lived priorities and are trusted when implemented. When resources to act early are secured, and communities play a central role in determining what action looks like, this approach can become both predictable and sustainable.
Alexander Kjærum, Danish Refugee Council
What have been the main achievements for anticipatory action in the last ten years?
Anticipatory action has gained incredible momentum over the past ten years, from its initial beginnings to now, as its starts to move into the main discussions about how to organize humanitarian response. I think this has been largely driven by the emphasis on generating robust evidence to document the benefits of anticipatory action. And it has been possible to amplify this evidence through the growing community of practice, knowledge hubs and platforms.
Where do you think we fell short?
Many innovations and new approaches are tried and tested in relatively easy operating environments; this also happened with anticipatory action. But this means that, for a long time, it fell short in terms of being applied in some of the contexts where it maybe matters the most: fragile, conflict-affected communities, where vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards remains intense, and people's ability to cope is very limited. There have been recent advances in this respect, but a lot more remains to be done.
What do you think should be the priority for the next ten years?
The priority for the next ten years must be to make anticipatory action succeed in the most difficult areas and where the most vulnerable people live. We need to identify ways to gather the necessary data in these places, and develop innovative approaches for engaging with communities, especially where access is difficult. This will require us to expand the scope of anticipatory action beyond hydrometeorological hazards, and develop truly multi-hazard approaches that are based on the various types of shocks to which many communities are exposed.
Read more about the Danish Refugee Council's work on anticipatory action here.
Julia Burakowski, Welthungerhilfe (WHH)
What have been the main achievements for anticipatory action in the last ten years?
Over the past decade, anticipatory action has evolved from a niche concept into a growing movement embraced by a diverse range of actors. More governments, UN agencies and NGOs – especially local NGOs – are now engaged in shaping and implementing anticipatory approaches.
The diversification in hazard coverage in recent years also marks a major achievement. We have expanded from anticipating hydrometeorological hazards, such as droughts, floods and cyclones, to acting ahead of disease outbreaks, locust infestations, even conflict and displacement. Anticipatory action is no longer limited to specific types of shocks, but is an increasingly viable and adaptable way to manage multiple and compounding crises.
Where do you think we fell short?
There has been a growing recognition that effective anticipatory action must be truly locally led and people-centred; this means that communities are not just recipients of early warnings, but active decision-makers in designing and triggering the actions that affect them. But translating this recognition into practice remains a challenge. While participation and community engagement are increasingly emphasized – and should, in fact, be at the centre of any project – the anticipatory action community still falls short of genuine local leadership.
What do you think should be the priority for the next ten years?
Over ten years, we have seen that merely sending out early warnings will not lead to action if trust is lacking. Building relationships of trust, ensuring accountability, and fostering transparent and open two-way communication between institutions and at-risk communities... these all need to become central to anticipatory action.
In the next ten years, we should move beyond consultation towards true power-sharing with communities. This needs to be the next crucial step for this approach.