The basics of forecasting for anticipatory action

In an increasingly unpredictable climate, the ability to interpret and apply forecasting information is critical for effective disaster preparedness. Many practitioners, particularly those new to anticipatory action, struggle to navigate the complexities of weather and climate forecasts. This webinar series is designed to bridge that knowledge gap by providing a foundational understanding of forecasting principles, impact-based forecasting approaches, and key considerations for decision-making. By equipping beginners with practical insights and real-world examples, this series aims to enhance their ability to use forecasts effectively, ask the right questions, and take timely anticipatory action to mitigate risks and save lives.

The video and webinar series was held from 16 May - 18 June covering the basics of forecasting for different hazards.

No	Topic	Forecasting Friday video release	Webinar Wednesday 13:30 – 15:00
1	Introduction to forecasting	16 May	21 May
2	Flood	23 May	28 May
3	Cyclone / typhoon / hurricane / tropical storm	30 May	04 June
4	Cold wave and heat wave	06 June	11 June
5	Non-weather hazards & where potential for anticipatory action is being explored, plus local/indigenous forecasts	13 Juni	18 June

What we want to achieve

Create a basic understanding of the steps required to build a forecast for anticipatory action
Convey knowledge on how to ask the right questions to forecasters to be able to plan around uncertainty and lead times
Share knowledge on where to find resources and technical support.

Target audience

Any individuals who are new to forecasting concepts or who need a stronger foundation in using forecasts for decision-making.

We shared with you:

Forecasting Fridays - pre-recorded introductory videos
Five 1-3 minute videos focusing on different topics and hazards were delivered on Fridays in May and June, with references to accompanying learning materials on each topic, including pre-learning on the basics of anticipatory action and other key resources such as the 2024 Anticipation Hub Drought Learning Series.
Webinar Wednesdays – an interactive webinar
The Wednesday of the following week, a 1-hour webinar + an optional 30 minutes for non-recorded discussion explored the topic of each video. Each week a country case study with a recent activation showcased the work of practitioners and forecasters who told us about their experiences, what they wished they had known and top tips for newcomers.
Q&A and resource sheet
One hundred questions were asked and answered throughout the entire webinar series. Likewise, we collected all useful resources shared in the chat during each of the sessions. The Q&A and resource sheet can be found below.

Speakers:

Dr. Erin Coughlan de Perez, Senior Technical Advisor of Climate Centre, Research Director and Dignitas Professor at Tufts University, United States and a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report

Prof. Liz Stephens, Science Lead of Climate Centre, leading the scientific work in the Anticipatory Action space and a professor of climate risks and resilience at the University of Reading, United Kingdom

Dr. Kiswendsida Guigma, Technical Advisor of Climate Centre and is affiliated to University of Sussex, United Kingdom

Anita Auerbach (co-facilitator), Anticipation Hub