Navigating the 2026 El Niño in Asia-Pacific

Description

In June 2026, WMO formally declared the onset of a potentially very strong El Niño event, which is expected to mature through late 2026 and peak into early 2027. However, this is not a standard climate event. The Asia-Pacific region is facing a complex, compound climate-economic shock:

• The climate drivers: Beyond El Niño, there is an increasing likelihood of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) developing in the second half of 2026, potentially from September, creating highly variable risk geographies across South-East Asia, the Pacific and South Asia, with the positive IOD often amplifying drought conditions and increasing the likelihood of severe impacts in some regions. 
• The economic spillover: These climate anomalies are colliding with market shocks from the ongoing Middle East crisis, which has already doubled fertilizer prices since late 2025 and kept fuel, fertilizer and food costs elevated

This webinar brings together key intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) and multilateral development banks to hear about early warning mechanisms and forecast products, as well as preparedness measures and anticipatory actions, before the worst climate impacts materialize in late 2026 and early 2027. This webinar also aligns with the Asia-Pacific TWG’s expanded mandate to integrate early warnings into its workstream of anticipatory action.

Objectives

1. Demystify the risk: Share the latest sub-regional climate forecasts (ENSO/IOD) and market analyses to establish a common evidence base.
2. Understand IGO mechanisms: Hear about specific early warning products and preparedness measures utilized by SPC, BIMSTEC and ICIMOD.
3. Enhance operational understanding and readiness: Discuss operational, financial and policy constraints and opportunities in translating forecasts into anticipatory actions ahead of El Niño's impacts. Facilitate a dialogue between intergovernmental organizations, governments and humanitarian partners on potential ways forward.