From Pilot to Policy: How Governments are Leading Anticipatory Action

The trend is clear: climate shocks are coming in faster cycles. In Cuba, Hurricane Melissa struck communities as they were still recovering from Hurricane Oscar and months of drought. In Mozambique, three cyclones hit within a single season. In the Philippines, six successive cyclones struck the country within five weeks. Across countries, people face shocks that are more frequent, severe and overlapping.

Yet alongside the growing risk, is growing hope. Countries are discovering that taking action in the critical window between forecast and the peak of impact can mean the difference between families coping and families becoming destitute.

Over the past decade, OCHA and humanitarian partners have been testing how to act in that way: using forecasts to trigger pre-agreed actions and financing before a hazard strikes, and generating evidence on what works. Scaled through the United Nations Global Emergency Fund (CERF) since 2020, these anticipatory approaches have shown that acting early saves lives, time and money.

As climate impacts deepen, governments and local actors are increasingly taking the lead. In 2025, governments in Burkina Faso, Cuba, Fiji, Mozambique, Nigeria and the Philippines took on central roles in designing and leading anticipatory action, supported by humanitarian partners.

This story highlights that shift. It shows how catalytic CERF financing, coordinated and inclusive processes, and strengthened technical capacity are helping governments embed anticipatory action into national systems. The six country case studies in the annex illustrate how these approaches are being put into practice. Although this story focuses on those six, they are not alone. Countries such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Palau, and Somalia are advancing along similar paths, each with its own story of national leadership and collaboration.

Together, these experiences demonstrate that investing in anticipatory action through OCHA-managed pooled funds and technical expertise strengthens not only early action, but national leadership and the systems needed to support it.