Forecast-based Action and Shock Responsive Social Protection in Provinces 5 and Sudhur Paschim, Nepal

Bringing the two concepts of Forecast-based Action (FbA) and Shock Responsive Social Protection (SRSP) in Nepal represents a valuable opportunity to improve system delivery, build off innovations, and reduce the disaster burden in one of the world's most disaster-prone countries. Beginning in 2020, this project aims to integrate shock responsiveness and anticipatory action into Nepal’s social security allowance programme to inform the development of more responsive and anticipatory social protection and early warning systems that protect the most vulnerable before, during, and after shocks.

This project aims to build a replicable mechanism for anticipatory action based on experiences and evidence collected and tested on the ground, strengthening the capacity of the Government of Nepal and humanitarian stakeholders to implement Forecast-based Action and Shock Responsive Social Protection for floods and cold waves.

  • Gaps and barriers for persons with disabilities and other vulnerable groups to fully access sets of services provided by the Government and other organisations during a disaster identified and translated into actions for anticipation and shock responsive social protection

  • Testing modificaitons to social protection in 5 municipalities in 2 river basins to make them more shock-responsive anticipatory

  • Inclusive standard operating procedures for anticipatory action related to floods and cold waves jointly developed and tested in 2 districts

Key facts

Start/end date     

June 2020 – May 2022

Hazards covered    

Riverine floods | Cold waves

Regions covered    

2 provinces (Province 5 and Sudhur Paschim) | 2 districts (Bardiya and Kailali) | 2 river basins (Babai and Karnali) | 5 municipalities exposed to floods in those 2 river basins (Gulariya, Barabardiya, Thakurbaba / Tikapur, Janaki)

Early action sectors     


Implementing partners   

Nepal Red Cross Society | Danish Red Cross | Humanity and Inclusion

Technical partners:

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center | UNICEF

Other stakeholders involved:

Federal government | provincial government | municipalities and wards |agencies involved in FbA and SRSP in Nepal 

Anticipation in practice: Project description

Nepal is highly vulnerable to a broad range of hazards. New and more extreme hazards occur with increased frequency due to climate change, more variable flooding because of glacier melt, and more frequent and extreme heatwaves. These climate shocks have contributed significantly to the humanitarian burden and vulnerabilities have increased as the coping capacities of affected people are stretched. Frequent disasters continue to compromise the sustainability of development gains while underlying food insecurity, under nutrition, poverty and turnover of government personnel provide a challenging context for an effective DP and Response. Floods in Nepal have a variety of impacts from the displacement of people in the affected communities to the destruction of public and private infrastructure, leading to limited mobility, loss of services, limited availability of food and increased food and transport costs. Specific groups of people are also particularly vulnerable at the time of floods, largely those with restricted mobility, such as older people, pregnant women, women with small children, single women, the landless and undocumented, and people with disabilities.

Donors and SP specialists are looking into ways of using social protection systems to reach out to the most vulnerable. This project seeks to combine the anticipatory aspects of FbF with shock-responsive social protection (SRSP). The ability of SRSP to support emergency response efforts and reach the most vulnerable groups in times of crisis was demonstrated in Nepal after the 2015 earthquake and again during COVID-19 preparedness and response operations. There is a lot of evidence that regularity and dependability of payments improves the impact of the assistance, as beneficiaries are able to plan ahead and make better use of the support they receive.

This project focuses on linking advances made in FbA in Nepal with the existing social security allowance (SSA) program through an integrated approach embedding SRSP within FbA, adapting the social protection system, and developing complimentary instruments to reach out to the most vulnerable in anticipation of and in response to climate shocks. The FbA system will be jointly developed with all interested stakeholders from local to national authorities, communities, I/NGOs and donors, integrating their knowledge and perspectives. The development of the shock-responsiveness and resilience of the social protection system at local level will be supported by confirming the gaps identified through various studies with additional input from local stakeholders’ experiences. Modificaiton to the social protection system that might allow the system to act in anticipation as well as function during and after a disaster will be explored together with local stakeholders and tested in simulations.


Outcomes and lessons learned

In October 2021, Nepal was hit by extreme unseasonal rainfall. Tikapur and Janaki, two of the target municipalities in Kailali district, were affected by flooding. A case study report documents the timeline of anticipatory action for this event, including forecasting, communication and coordination processes and the early actions taken.

This image shows a map of the areas of invention
Map of the areas of intervention, © Nepal Red Cross Society


Anne-Sophie Pétri

Danish Red Cross Programme Manager:

Manish Dhungel

Danish Red Cross Programme Coordinator:

Niru Pradhan

Nepal Red Cross Society Programme Coordinator:

Further resources

Project presentation: Forecast-based Action and Shock Responsive Social Protection in Provinces 5 and Sudhur Paschim (FbA-SRSP)

Project presentation to various stakeholders during a project launching webinar organized jointly with ECHO and ECHO partners in Nepal

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FbA and Shock Responsive Social Protection (FbA-SRSP) in Sudur Paschim and Lumbini Provinces, Nepal


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Acting in anticipation against unseasonal floods in Nepal

This case study documents the anticipatory actions taken ahead of the October 2021 floods in the Karnali River, Nepal. These included early warning messages, the evacuation of at-risk households, …

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