Forecast-based action and shock-responsive social protection in Province 5 and Sudhur Paschim, Nepal

Bringing the two concepts of forecast-based action and shock-responsive social protection in Nepal represents a valuable opportunity to improve system delivery, build off innovations, and reduce the disaster burden in one of the world's most disaster-prone countries. Beginning in 2020, this project aims to integrate shock responsiveness and anticipatory action into Nepal’s social security allowance programme to inform the development of more responsive and anticipatory social protection and early warning systems that protect the most vulnerable people - before, during and after shocks. Further, it aims to build a replicable mechanism for anticipatory action based on experiences and evidence collected and tested on the ground, strengthening the capacity of the government of Nepal and humanitarian stakeholders to implement forecast-based action and shock-responsive social protection for floods and cold waves.

Anticipation in practice: project description

Nepal is highly vulnerable to a broad range of hazards. New and more extreme hazards occur with increased frequency due to climate change, more variable flooding because of glacier melt, and more frequent and extreme heat waves. These climate shocks have contributed significantly to the humanitarian burden and vulnerabilities have increased as the coping capacities of affected people are stretched. Frequent disasters continue to compromise the sustainability of development gains while underlying food insecurity, undernutrition, poverty and the high turnover of government personnel provide a challenging context for effective disaster planning and response.

Floods in Nepal have a variety of impacts, from the displacement of people in affected communities to the destruction of public and private infrastructure, which leads to limited mobility, loss of services, limited availability of food, and increased food and transport costs. Specific groups of people are particularly vulnerable during floods, largely those with restricted mobility such as older people, pregnant women, women with small children, single women, the landless and undocumented, and people with disabilities.

Donors and social protection specialists are looking into ways of using social protection systems to reach out to the most vulnerable people. This project seeks to combine the anticipatory aspects of forecast-based financing with shock-responsive social protection. The ability of shock-responsive social protection to support emergency response efforts and reach the most vulnerable groups in times of crisis was demonstrated in Nepal after the 2015 earthquake, and again during COVID-19 preparedness and response operations. There is a lot of evidence that the regularity and dependability of payments improves the impact of  assistance, as beneficiaries are able to plan ahead and make better use of the support they receive.

This project focuses on linking the advances made in forecast-based action in Nepal with the existing social security allowance programme, through an integrated approach that embeds shock-responsive social protection within forecast-based action, adapting the social protection system, and developing complimentary instruments to reach out to the most vulnerable people in anticipation of, and in response to, climate shocks. The forecast-based action system will be jointly developed with all interested stakeholders - from local to national authorities, communities, NGOs, international NGOs and donors - integrating their knowledge and perspectives. The development of the shock-responsiveness and resilience of the social protection system at the local level will be supported by confirming the gaps identified through various studies with additional input from local stakeholders’ experiences. Modificaitons to the social protection system that might allow the system to act in anticipation, as well as function during and after a disaster, will be explored together with local stakeholders and tested in simulations.

Outcomes and lessons learned

• In June 2022 the Nepal Red Cross Society held a simulation exercise to test the functionality of its Early Action Framework for Floods; this video captures the main outcomes and lessons learned from this exercise.
• In October 2021, Nepal was hit by extreme unseasonal rainfall. Tikapur and Janaki, two of the target municipalities in Kailali district, were affected by flooding. A case study report documents the timeline of anticipatory action for this event, including forecasting, communication and coordination processes and the early actions taken.