Model Report: Anticipatory Action Trigger for Drought in Niger

This brief report provides a peer review of the trigger mechanism designed for anticipatory action in Niger. This trigger includes a predictive model using seasonal precipitation forecasts and an observational model using the Standardized Precipitation Index, and would, if activated, release funds from CERF in anticipation of drought related humanitarian needs. This release of funds could be triggered from six months before the rainy seasons (rainy season is July – September) until one month into the season. This review considers the trigger mechanism both technically and ethically. Technical evaluation addresses 1) intended use, 2) model development and documentation, model evaluation, and operational readiness. Concerns include that the model may not detect localized rainfall and that the spatial resolution of the predictive model (0.5) may be too high given the model’s dependence on precipitation variability. It is recommended that the forecast accuracy could be improved by tailoring the model to individual areas within Niger and addressing low correlation between outputs and precipitation in the northern part of Niger. The ethical review addresses 1) false negative activation, 2) false positive activation, 3) identity exposure, and 4) bias in available data. Recommendations include continuously evaluating the predictive model outputs against the observational model and precipitation data to decrease the chances of a false activation and that there should be a determination if there are gaps in biases in climate data to prevent unfair allocation of funding and activities.