Malawi Dry Spells Anticipatory Action Trigger: Quality Assurance Review

This high-level report details the quality assurance review of the trigger used in the anticipatory action pilot implemented to mitigate impact of dry spells on vulnerable communities in Malawi. The trigger used was a hybrid model with a predictive and an observational component. The report finds that generally the analyses carried out when creating the trigger were comprehensive and logical, and that the trigger should lead to timely action. Yet, several weaknesses were observed, including weak evidence for correlation between the predictive trigger and dry spells, and dry spells and need. The report notes that there were only a few occurrences of dry spells, leading to low statistical significance of the results. The report concludes by emphasizing that even with these weaknesses, there is an advantage of having a simple trigger, and that alternatives are unlikely.