Flood 2020: Trigger Analysis - Bangladesh

This report evaluates the forecast and triggers used for the anticipatory action project in Bangladesh. Recommendations issued by the report include: (1) scaling up the existing Jamuna river plain trigger model to cover all the river flood risk areas in the country; (2) understanding the flood risk to prioritize the districts to consider in phases; (3) defining the influence area using remote sensing and historical water levels and considering the connectivity from the trigger to the flood plain; (4) defining community-based danger level for each flood cell and linking with the respective government station; (5) increasing the lead time of flood wave traveling time between the gauges; (6) improving readiness for anticipatory action at the seasonal or sub-seasonal forecast; (7) developing sector-based trigger framework for the government; (8) building capacity and awareness for anticipatory action; and (9) updating the trigger model for the Jamuna river basin with lessons learned from the 2020 field.