Forecasting the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) for Anticipatory Drought Management

Drought and food security early warning systems often use satellite monitoring of vegetation conditions as a key indicator. Working with drought risk management agencies in Kenya the University of Sussex has co-developed a method to forecast satellite vegetation condition index (VCI), used in the Kenya national Drought Early Warning System. The forecasting method provided highly skilled forecasts of VCI up to 12 weeks lead time allowing earlier actions to mitigate drought impacts. The vegetation forecasts can be applied in other regions.