On the quantitative limits for triggering drought anticipatory actions in Mindanao, the Philippines

This study evaluates a range of climate and environmental indicators as a basis for developing a quantitative, objective trigger model for anticipatory action in Mindanao, the Philippines. The analyses focus on: (1) an evaluation of efficacy of using a climate-only drought hazard index as an expression of impactful drought in the region, and (2) an evaluation of the predictive utility of a set of indicators and formal statistical models combining these indicators, at various lead times. The authors from the University of Cape Town and FAO show that the predictive utility of each indicator varies by season and lead time, highlight the varying skill of the trigger model and consequently advocate for transparent inclusion of model skill in the trigger mechanism.

This article was published in: Front. Clim., 19 April 2024, Sec. Climate Services, Volume 6 - 2024, doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1336442