Detecting Dry Spells in Malawi: Learnings from Developing an Anticipatory Action Trigger

This briefing summarizes initial lessons from the anticipatory action trigger implemented for dry spells in Malawi. Lessons include: 1) that established definitions may not easily lend themselves to Anticipatory Action, flagging for instance that the definition of ‘dry spells’ is not widely agreed upon; 2) that sudden or slow onset crises aren’t the only two options, and there is a need to distinguish the timeframes of both a shock and its potentially longer-term impacts; 3) that the unfolding of the impact may be an appropriate basis for the trigger, rather than or in addition to the shock; 4) that two otherwise comparable shocks may vary in impact based on their timing, meaning triggers for dry spells should consider the growth phase of crops; 5) that local knowledge and quantitative data are valuable and complementary, even if at times they are at odds; 6) that triggers both support and require transparency to facilitate alignment and buy-in; and 7) that technical limitations in predicting or measuring a phenomenon can create a demand for a new data products, and trigger mechanisms can take advantage of new local and regional outputs.