Model Report: Drought Anticipatory Action Trigger in Burkina Faso

This report provides a peer review of the trigger mechanism for the anticipatory action programme in Burkina Faso responding to drought. The trigger is based on the IRI seasonal rainfall forecast, with the threshold for activation dependent on geographic coverage and the probability of below-average rainfall. The technical review considers the: (1) intended use; (2) model development and documentation; (3) model evaluation; and (4) operational readiness. Recommendations include the need for an alternative source of forecast for verification, the consideration of other drought indicators like dry spells, more clarity on how the minimum area of below average precipitation for 10 per cent was chosen, additional verification metrics to increase confidence, the need for a discussion on potential negative risks due to interventions in a conflict-affected country, and more reflection on the potential risks of a negative false alarm.