Scaling Anticipatory Humanitarian Action for Displacement (AHEAD)

The Danish Refugee Council (DRC) launched the Anticipatory Humanitarian Action for Displacement (AHEAD) program in 2024 to proactively address escalating humanitarian needs arising from conflict-induced displacement across seven countries. The project’s forecast-based approach builds on previous machine learning models developed by DRC to predict conflict-driven displacement months in advance. It aims to avert and minimize the effects of crises by leveraging forecasts to inform and trigger anticipatory action, ensuring timely, dignified and effective responses in contexts as wide-ranging as Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Niger, South Sudan, Uganda and Yemen.

Rising displacement, rising needs

Over the past decade, the world has witnessed a dramatic escalation in humanitarian needs, with an estimated 305 million people requiring assistance in 2025 compared with 78 million in 2015. This surge is largely driven by the prolongation of conflicts and the absence of their peaceful resolution, coupled with rising climate shocks. This has resulted in the repeated and protracted displacement of 123 million people worldwide today, a figure which is estimated to rise by about 6. 7 million by 2026, according to DRC’s Foresight model.

Despite the many benefits of anticipatory action, including its ability to reduce psychosocial stress, food insecurity and asset loss among at-risk communities, its full potential remains untapped beyond the scope of climate shocks, especially in displacement and conflict settings. Only one anticipatory action framework addressing displacement was active in 2023, according to the Anticipation Hub’s Global Overview. Current anticipatory action models are not sufficiently adapted to be scaled up in conflict-affected and fragile settings and there is an absence of strong evidence to make them broadly credible in these contexts. This has kept anticipatory action from informing global policy processes on conflict and displacement.

Applying AA in conflict settings

In response to these trends, DRC’s modelling tool predicts conflict-induced displacement at the sub-national level 3-4 months into the future. It relies on historical, open-source data of key displacement drivers coupled with community level early warning capabilities to inform a set of pre-agreed triggers. These triggers can alert and prompt a response in advance of the displacement. They also help to inform efforts by DRC and other organizations to tackle the root causes of displacement and to strengthen resilience to shocks.

While the early stages of the AHEAD initiative were piloted in South Sudan and Burkina Faso with the support of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operation (ECHO), expanding the project across seven countries relies on cooperation with the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Both donors are committed to scaling up anticipatory action through dedicated funding and coordination, consistent with the commitments outlined under the Grand Bargain Caucus on Anticipatory Action, a platform bringing together donors and aid organizations who seek to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of humanitarian action.

The AHEAD initiative seeks to reduce upward pressure on humanitarian needs through three key workstreams:

1. Improved access to and use of displacement forecasts: Enhancing the accuracy, accessibility and relevance of displacement forecasting models.
2. Standardized practice and systems: Developing national-level frameworks and inclusive practices involving local actors, the diaspora and hard-to-reach communities.
3. Enabling policy environment: Leveraging evidence and learning to create a more supportive policy environment for the scale-up of anticipatory action.

Looking AHEAD

Running through December 2027, AHEAD is in its early set-up phase. Teams are focused on refining the accuracy and reach of the predictive model, establishing partnerships and creating tools and guidance to strengthen DRC’s anticipatory action approach. Through an integrated way of working, AHEAD seeks to demonstrate the feasibility and impact of conflict-related anticipatory action, advocate for its adoption at scale and equip key actors with the tools to sustain its implementation beyond the project lifecycle. By building credible, locally grounded AA models and engaging with policymakers to reinforce such an approach, DRC seeks to contribute to strengthening the effectiveness of humanitarian action at a time when it is needed most.

Activations

Through a pilot project in South Sudan, DRC first introduced the conflict-induced displacement AA approach in Akobo County – a remote region of eastern South Sudan impacted by overlapping inter-communal conflicts – to mitigate potential displacement and its consequences. The project tested a predictive model that assessed conflict events and related displacement, drawing upon historical data and community-level protection indicators identified by local peace committees. By consulting with these committees and other local actors, DRC improved its machine-learning predictive capabilities by incorporating more granular data collected by field teams. In May 2024, the model's output reached predefined trigger levels, signaling a notable rise in violent incidents, movement restrictions and the recruitment of children into armed groups. In response, DRC initiated anticipatory actions, including inter-community dialogue and social cohesion activities, to both stem further escalation and reduce the risk of conflict-driven displacement.

These actions helped to reduce overall levels of violence, thus averting displacement and humanitarian needs, enhancing communities’ capacity to stay and facilitating the return of displaced persons. The pilot also proved to be cost-effective, saving up to €6.6 for every euro spent and resulting in up to €600,000 of averted costs associated with displacement. Although anticipatory action helped reduce immediate needs, the project confirmed that tackling the root causes of Akobo’s conflicts requires longer-term investment across the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus, including dedicated peacebuilding.